India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?

Written by Manali Kumar

With the next round of parliamentary elections scheduled for the summer of 2024, Modi is already in campaign mode, and the G20 presidency has all but been declared a success.

South Asia9DLJanuary 26, 2023India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?, 9DashLine, Manali Kumar, India, G20, Bali Summit, emerging economies, debt crises, global economic and financial governance, war in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Poland, Indonesia, food and energy security, climate crisis, post-Covid economic recession and inflationary crisis, inflation, recession, New Delhi, One Earth, One Family, One Future, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s G20 presidency, Global South, ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE), disaster risk reduction and resilience, economic crime, green hydrogen, climate financing, loss and damage fund, COP27, cryptocurrency, regulation, Bali declaration, US, Reserve Bank of India, dollarisation, tax evasion, money laundering, protectionism, sustainable development, empowering women, Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, Russia’s aggression, neutrality, Russian oil, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, sanctions, peace agreement, COVID-19 pandemic, China-US rivalry, diplomacy, re-election

2023: The prospect of Pacific Island agency

9DASHLINE asks several experts for their assessment of the prospects for Pacific Island agency in 2023 international politics, especially beyond the 'big power influence' by the US and China that has so often been written about in 2022.

Pacific9DLJanuary 25, 20232023: The prospects of Pacific Island agency, 9DashLine, Pacific Islands, climate action, US-China competition for hegemony, Indo-Pacific security dynamics, big power influence, PRIESTLEY HABRU, heterogeneous, colonial, colonialism, great power competition, China, The Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, United Nations General Assembly, democracy, Taipei, Beijing, economic development, former Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, US President Joe Biden, US-Pacific Partnership Summit, Washington DC, Fiji, Sitiveni Rabuka, Australian Labor government, Australia, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Suva, geopolitics, JOANNE WALLIS, UK, strategic competition, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, climate change, Pacific Islands Forum’s ‘Blue Pacific’ narrative, Blue Pacific, ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (PBP) initiative, New Zealand, Japan, MAIMA KORO, Samoa, US-Pacific Partnership Declaration, HENRIETTA MCNEILL, South Korea, European Union, Cook Islands, Niue, French territories, Micronesian states, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent

Road to nowhere? Prospects for the BRI in 2023 and beyond

Written by Philip Lott

With increased competition from the EU and the G7, as well as recent readjustments of the Belt and Road Initiative’s scope and spending, one question remains: will China’s “project of a century” be short-lived?

Faultlines9DLJanuary 24, 20239dashline, Philip Lott, Road to nowhere? Prospects of the BRI in 2023 and beyond, China, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, exports, soft connectivity, hard connectivity, Memorandums of Understanding, Xi Jinping, international development spending, EU, G7, Green Finance and Development Centre, GFDC, Africa, accountability, corruption scandals, labour rights, environmental protection regulations, public pushback, debt trap, local infrastructure, Chinese influence, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Southeast Asia, zero-covid strategy, private-sector initiatives, infrastructure projects, Chinese leadership, Wang Yi, Global Development Initiative, GDI, Global Security Initiative, GSI, Party Congress, foreign policy heirarchy, loans, Export-Import Bank of China, EXIM, European banks, US banks, International Development Finance Corporation, DFC, connectivity initiatives, geopolitical landscape, EU’s Global Gateway, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, Build Back Better World, B3W, investment

2023: Addressing climate change

Given the poor performance of industrialised countries in delivering promised climate finance, what are the prospects for the loss and damage fund, details of which are to be negotiated at COP28 this year?

2023: Where is Japan headed under Kishida?

9DASHLINE invited a select group of experts to assess how the Kishida administration’s policies on domestic, international, economic, and security issues will differ from the Abe administration.

Pacific9DLJanuary 20, 20239dashline, 2023: Where is Japan under Kishida headed?, DR JAMES D. BROWN, James DJ Brown, DR EVA PEJSOVA, EVA PEJSOVA, DR ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, DR STEPHEN NAGY, Stephen Nagy, Japan, Fumio Kishida, Kishida, Abe, Shinzo Abe, Abe administration, approval ratings, Kishida administration, Abenomics, stimulatory economic policy, Japanese military, scandals, nepotism, free-market, new capitalism, security reforms, defence spending, strike missiles, public mood, dovish approach, foreign affairs, security affairs, Russia-Ukraine war, China’s expansionism, China, rules-based international order, US allies, security ties, deterrence, defence budget, nuclear non-proliferation, Taiwan, hostile security environment, geopolitical shocks, party politics, defence posture, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, Chinese market, Unification Church investigations, National Security Strategy, G7 presidency, UN Security Council non-permanent seat, Tokyo, Sino-US rivalry, Yoshida Doctrine, US-Japan alliance, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, EPA, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision, FOIP, strategic imperatives, domestic reform

2023: EU decoupling from China?

Such a move would suggest that Brussels was giving in to Washington’s demands instead of pursuing its own objectives. Perhaps counterintuitively, a decoupling from China would therefore be at odds with European calls for strategic autonomy.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 18, 20239dashline, 2023: EU decoupling from China, Agathe Demarais, Moritz Rudolf, Maximilian Mayer, Luke Patey, Angela Stanzel, EU, Europe, European Union, China, Beijing, US-China trade conflict, decoupling, strategic autonomy, trade partners, goods shortages, EU imports from China, Washington, Brussels, PRC, party-state, Chinese market, Chinese investments, capacity building, hegemonic competition, Biden Administration, technological development, interdependence, emerging technologies, economic sanctions, European economy, European diplomacy, minilateral, anti-coercion instrument, decoupling debate, European industries, green supply chains, electric vehicle production, green exports, European welfare, European decision-makers, European common market, economic integration, technological integration, Russia-Ukraine war, geostrategic dependencies, critical raw materials, green transition, digital transition, alternative partnerships, mutual interdependency, Taiwan-Strait

ASEAN enters 2023 in a moment of crisis

Written by Hunter Marston

Some experts suggest Indonesia is likely to propose adopting a seven-vote threshold instead of requiring all ten members to agree on passing a measure. This would go a long way to making the institution more agile, responsive, and decisive.

Southeast Asia9DLJanuary 17, 20239dashline, ASEAN prepares to enter 2023 in a moment of crisis, Hunter Marston, ASEAN, East Asia Summit, Phnom Penh, power competition, consensus, regional, Southeast Asian, Sino-US rivalry, democracy versus authoritarianism, coup in Myanmar, myanmar, China, USA, Indonesia, Cold War, Vietnam’s occupation of Cambodia, Vietnam, Cambodia, withdrawal of US forces from Thailand, Soviet, civil war in Myanmar, Five Point Consensus, bloc, ASEAN centrality, Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore, Myanmar military, junta, Myanmar Junta, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, Malaysia, Cambodia’s strongman Hun Sen, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, authoritarian, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), Continental versus maritime Southeast Asia, Philippines, military junta, South China Sea, democracy, Laos, territorial claims in the East Sea, Code of Conduct for maritime disputes, Timor-Leste, United States, US-China rivalry, Hoang Thi Ha, Japan, Australia, minilateral, Quad, AUKUS, Great Power competition, US President Joe Biden, Washington, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin, United Nations, rules-based order, Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, diversity, 1991 Paris Peace Accords, military regime, Yangon, “CMLV” states, Asian Financial Crisis, trade, currency exchange regime, ASEAN’s convening power, ASEAN enters 2023 in a moment of crisis

2023: The future of CEE-China relations

9DASHLINE asked a select group of experts to assess Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ relations with China and how they expect them to evolve in 2023.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 20239dashline, 2023: The future of CEE-China relations, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, VUK VUKSANOVIC, VALENTINA VENGUST, STEFAN VLADISAVLJEV, Central and Eastern European, CEE, China, 17+1, 14+1, Beijing, 2022, 2023, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC-CEE, PRC-CEE relations, economic cooperation, security concerns, critical infrastructure, high-tech industry, backsliding, democratic backsliding, coercion, Lithuania, EU common market, 'no-limits' friendship, Moscow, 16+1 summit, Huo Yuzhen, Estonia, Latvia, Jiang Yu, US, united states, Taiwan, security guarantor, NATO, China-CEE format, Czech Republic, Greece, Chinese investments, security concern, security guarantees, Washington, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Serbia, Hungary, Middle Corridor, Albania, North Macedonia, cooling-off period, joint statement, territorial integrity, sovereignty, diplomatic missions, Baltic countries, EU-China relations, China-CEE cooperation, cooperation mechanism, Sino-Serbian cooperation, territorial disputes, free trade agreement

2023: Where is Pakistan heading?

2022 was a difficult year for Pakistan: A humanitarian crisis sparked by devastating floods, the assassination attempt against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and a faltering economy. Growing political instability also prompted US President Joe Biden to call Pakistan one of the most dangerous countries in the world, characterising it as “nuclear weapons without cohesion”.

Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies

Written by Eva Seiwert

The EU and allies should scrap the framing of ‘democracies vs autocracies’ not just with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also when speaking about China’s increase in power.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 12, 20239dashline, Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies, Eva Seiwert, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, World War II, European Union, EU, Moscow, Russia's aggression, Western governments, democracy, Autocracy, the West against the Rest, democracies vs autocracies, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), UNGA resolution, sanctions, SWIFT, Belarus, North KoreaNorth Korea, Syria, Nicaragua, Eritrea, Iran, drones, China, trade, rules-based international order, Global South, Global North, India, abstention, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Russia’s war, the West, Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), neutrality, anti-Americanism, Cold War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, vaccine nationalism, climate change, Western hypocrisy and selfishness, Ukrainian refugees, Beijing, Western double standards, anti-West narratives, Arab World, Latin America, Africa, Russian and Chinese media outlets, UN Charter, international law, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Argentina, Senegal, G7 summit in Schloss Elmau, G7, G20, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

As a reinvigorated Quad steps up its engagement, some observers have called for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to establish a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific via a standing maritime force. But how viable is this idea?

Pacific9DLJanuary 11, 20239dashline, The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific, Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, standing maritime force, Blake Herzinger, United States, military, vaccination, supply chains, climate, maritime security, Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, Quad vaccine partnership, Beijing, China, Australia, India, Japan, Horn of Africa, military alliance, Indian Ocean, New Delhi, South or East China Seas, East China Seas, South China Sea, navy, Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, Gulf of Aden, maritime trade, geoeconomic, Pacific islands, Canberra, Pacific arc, Retired US Admiral Gary Roughead, Pentagon, Washington, defence planning, sea control, Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, rule of law, sovereignty, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, Quad Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief meeting, Asian NATO, Quad Leaders’ Meeting, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Taiwan Straits, Korean peninsula, ASEAN, Canada, south korea, Taiwan

Attentive friends, busy enemies, and a bright future — 2023 for North Korea

Written by Benedikt Staar

North Korean politics are strongly influenced by the regime’s friends, its enemies, and its own ambitions. As it turns out, things look promising for Pyongyang on all three fronts.

2023: Myanmar’s prospects for peace

With state of emergency set to end at the end of January and the military junta pledging to hold general elections by August 2023, 9DASHLINE asks experts what we should expect from the upcoming elections in Myanmar and whether there is any prospect for peace in the country.

Editor's Picks, South Asia9DLJanuary 9, 20239dashline, 2023: Myanmar’s prospects for peace, Nicola Williams, Ian Chong, Hunter Marston, Abigail Chen, Sreeradha Datta, Myanmar Coup, Myanmar's junta, Myanmar coup, military coup, state of emergency, National Unity Government, NUG, track-one negotiation process, ethnic resistance organisations, political strategies, military strategies, legitimacy, armed groups, general election, free and fair elections, National League for Democracy, NLD, opposition politicians, political prisoners, violence, reconciliation, peace, peace process, Union Solidarity and Development Party, USDP, Shan National League for Democracy, SNLD, People’s Defence Forces, State Administration Council, SAC, party boycotts, domestic resistance, diplomatic repercussions, ASEAN, five-point consensus, ASEAN envoy, malaysia, geopolitical interests, military leaders

Best of 2022: In Conversation

In 2022, 9DASHLINE had the pleasure of speaking with the authors of several insightful books, with topics ranging from the current US-China strategic competition to the history of mountain communities in Nepal. Here we present some of our most thought-provoking In Conversation interviews of the past year.

Editor's Picks9DLJanuary 6, 2023In conversation: Nicola Nymalm on From Japan Problem to China Threat, Nicola Nymalm, US, China, United States, Japan, In conversation: Julia Gurol on 'The EU-China Security Paradox', Julia Gurol, European Union, In Conversation: James Borton on 'Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground', James Borton, SCS, South China Sea, Mekong River, Antarctica Treaty, In Conversation: Amish Mulmi on 'All Roads Lead North', Amish Mulmi, Nepal, Beijing, Tibet, In conversation: Ramon Pacheco Pardo on 'Shrimp to Whale: South Korea From The Forgotten War to K-Pop', Korea, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, In Conversation: Katie Stallard on ‘Dancing on Bones’, Wilson Center, Russia, North Korea, Putin, In conversation: Ali Wyne, Eurasia Group, America’s Great Power Opportunity, Cold War, In Conversation: Salvador Santino Fulo Regilme Jr., Southeast Asia, Global South, Philippines, Marcos Jr.

Best of 2022: Understanding China

A central actor in regional and global politics and governance, scholars and analysts continue to debate all aspects of its domestic and foreign policies. Speculation remains rife about whether a collapse of its economy and government is imminent, or whether it will forcibly claim Taiwan.

East Asia9DLJanuary 5, 2023China, A litany of economic woes but in China politics rules, Jabin Jacob, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, COVID, Zero-COVID, BRI, Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese public databases leaks reveal growing dissatisfaction with authorities, Antonia Hmaidi, hacktivism, Hackers, Data, data leaks, See no evil hear no evil speak no evil — China’s reaction to the OHCHR’s Xinjiang report, David O'Brien, Uyghurs, OHCHR, Xinjiang, Genocide, What's happening on the China-Vietnam Border, Bill Hayton, Vietnam, Beijing, Lessons from Chinese Government Interference in Australia, James Laurenceson, Australia, Why factional politics might no longer matter in China, 9DL, 9DASHLINE, How China became the standard maker, Philip Lott, Aspen Institute, International Telecommunications Union, Sam Bresnick, Going global: Beijing’s bid to rewrite the rules of international security, Biden, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative

Best of 2022: Russia’s War and the International Order

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year took the international community by surprise and raised concerns about the precedent this might set especially for China’s policy vis-à-vis Taiwan. The differing responses from countries, particularly established and rising powers, were also scrutinised, and implications were drawn for global governance and the international order.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 4, 2023Russia, Ukraine, The day the music stopped, Jana C. von Dessien, University of St Gallen, Taiwan, Putin, Liberalism from below: The Global South, Indrajit Roy, UN, United Nations General Assembly, UNGA, Liberal International Order, The rationale behind Beijing’s position on the war in Ukraine, Wang Li, University of Aberdeen, China, Beijing, China's Endorsement of Russia's Assault: Implications for Europe and Asia, Justyna Sczudlik, propaganda, Moscow, Lithuania, Europe, Alignment without alliance: China’s growing ambivalence to Putin’s war, Lunting Wu, Kamil Matusiewicz, Nonalignment’s long shadow: India and the Ukraine crisis, ROHAN MUKHERJEE, India, indo-pacific, multipolar order, New Delhi, Japan-Russia: The end of delusions, CÉLINE PAJON, Shinzo Abe, Nicholas Ross Smith, Ukraine — A wakeup call for the United States, Ian Hall, Why India won’t break from Russia… yet

Best of 2022: The Climate Crisis

In 2022, the Indo-Pacific region witnessed several devastating climate-related disasters, from floods in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh to heat waves and droughts in China. It is clear that the climate crisis has become an increasingly urgent global issue, and that concerted international action is necessary.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 3, 2023Best of 2022: The Climate Crisis, ASEAN leads the Indo-Pacific climate response, Clare Richardson-Barlow, Asean, indo-pacific, Net-Zero, South Asia must proactively prepare to face climate change, Manali Kumar, natural disasters, climate change, APOORVA JAIN, Building a case for disaster diplomacy in South Asia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bangladesh’s manoeuvring of climate change geopolitics, Rudabeh Shahid, Atlantic Council, Sirazoom Munira, Paris Climate goals, Dhaka, China's water security dilemma, Zenel Garcia, Philip Guerreiro, Water, Beijing, Environment, economy, society, water security, Competition and cooperation: India and China in the global climate regime, Miriam Prys-Hansen, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Simon Kaack, New Delhi, China, The World Needs Sino-American Climate Cooperation, Taylah Bland, Climate, Sino-American, Superpowers, Washington, Asia Society Policy Institute

Best of 2022: The Indo-Pacific

Take this opportunity to review some of our most-read analyses from the past year on the evolving strategies of several countries toward the Indo-Pacific.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 2, 2023Preparing for a crowded Indo-Pacific: where to next?, Gabriele Abbondanza, Korea, indonesia, Australia, South Korea, Europe, indo-pacific, Is South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy finally forthcoming?, Wongi Choe, Moon Jae-in, south korea, japan, australia, Elli Pohlkamp, Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp, Tokyo, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, United States, China, Christiane Heidbrink, Putin, Germany, Scholz, Bundeswehr, Asia-Pacific, France, Rafael Loss, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Hamburg Institute for Peace Research, Berlin, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, German Council on Foreign Relations, DGAP, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Reuben Steff, Martin Jirušek, US, Taiwan, The US should prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Ukraine, Aine Cooke