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What multipolar world order and for whom?

What multipolar world order and for whom?

Written by Dr Felix Heiduk and Dr Johannes Thimm

Currently, the global balance of power is shifting again, according to many, in the direction of multipolarity. But even if one accepts the concept of polarity in principle, the question immediately becomes which states could be considered as additional poles. China certainly qualifies, but beyond that?

Charting the future: US elections and the evolving US-Japan alliance

Charting the future: US elections and the evolving US-Japan alliance

Written by Dr Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp

In Japan’s business sector, the speculative phrase “moshi tora”, meaning “if Trump” has become widespread, indicating various industrial scenarios developed in the Japanese business sector for the possibility of a Trump presidency.

BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future

BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future

Written by Kelly Antoinette Khyriem

As criticisms propel the initiative towards a BRI 2.0, if China actively addresses and mitigates risks associated with its projects by enhancing transparency and accountability frameworks, it has the potential to outpace the emerging alternatives that are challenging the BRI.

East Asia9DLMarch 29, 20249dashline, BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future, Kelly Antoinette Khyriem, Xi Jinping, China, PRC, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Maritime Silk Road, digital infrastructure, trade policy coordination, financial cooperation, multilateral institutions, Memoranda of Understanding, geopolitical strategy, domestic development, US-led international order, ‘string of pearls’ theory, Chinese investments, naval bases, Indian Ocean, crucial shipping routes, debt-trap diplomacy, BRI-related loans, Sri Lanka, economic sovereignty, debt trap narrative, governance deficiencies, corruption, 1Malaysia Development Berhad, 1MDB, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, human rights abuses, BRI infrastructure, BRI commitments, large-scale infrastructure projects, sustainability, ecology, carbon dioxide emissions, environmental implications, EU, US, India, transparency, labour rights, EU-Asia Connectivity Strategy, Global Gateway Initiative, Blue Dot Network, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, PGII, G20 Leaders' Summit, hydropower plants, solar farms, 5G, public-private partnerships, Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Digital Silk Road, e-commerce initiatives, BRI 2.0, Green Belt and Road, renewable energy, Clean Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Hambantota Port, Kenya, Zambia, Malaysia, debt management, digital connectivity, debt burdens, renewable energy investment, AIIB

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

Written by James Kaizuka

Deeper institutionalisation of security cooperation, bilaterally between Japan and South Korea and trilaterally also including the United States, can head off all of these threats and ensure that the ‘inaugural’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue is not the ‘only’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

East Asia9DLMarch 27, 20249dashline, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat, James Kaizuka, Japan, South Korea, US, trilateral, Indo-Pacific Dialogue, Populism, Washington, cooperation, mutual threats, Security, GSOMIA intelligence-sharing agreement, GSOMIA, Soviet, Tsushima Strait, nationalism, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida, South Korea’s President Yoon, President Biden, authoritarian threat, democracy, Republican Party, President Trump, US allies, trans-pacific, transatlantic, isolationist, free-riding, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, depoliticising, Seoul, Tokyo, populism, elections, South Korea’s National Assembly, Democratic Party, Yoon’s Japan policy, Liberal Democratic Party, Nippon Kaigi, revisionism, Takaichi Sanae, Yasukuni Shrine, Ukraine, territory, history, reparations, wartime compensation, nuclear terrorism, Fukushima’s wastewater, Fukushima, Fukushima water, 1923 Kanto earthquake, second Trump presidency, Anti-military base movements, Alkonis affair, America First, Chinese disinformation, espionage, election interference, Camp David summit, NATO, European Union, Southeast Asia, Seibou Bunri, seikei bunri, diplomacy, defence

The EU’s Global Gateway Initiative: Infrastructure cooperation with Southeast Asia

The EU’s Global Gateway Initiative: Infrastructure cooperation with Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Alfred Gerstl and Nick Nieschalke

The investment in the Global Gateway Initiative (GGI) indicates the EU’s stronger global focus on infrastructure and connectivity partnerships within a dedicated scheme.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, In Focus9DLMarch 26, 20249dashline, The EU’s Global Gateway Initiative: Infrastructure cooperation with Southeast Asia, Dr Alfred Gerstl, Nick Nieschalke, EU, European Union, Indo-Pacific strategy, EU Global Gateway Initiative, Global Gateway Initiative, GGI, Indo-Pacific, Africa, Global South, geostrategic challenges, geo-economic challenges, EU institutions, EU member states, China, BRI, private sector, EU funds, Europe-Asia connectivity programme, infrastructure, connectivity partnerships, Brussels, Southeast Asia, alternative models of governance, economic benefits, values-based foreign policy, rules-based order, ASEAN, US, investment, de-risking, green transition, supply chains, energy supply, environment, health, education and research, energy, digital connectivity, UN SDG, sustainability, cooperation, Bac Ai hydropower plant, Vietnam, energy imports, net zero carbon emissions, electricity, hydropower, Hanoi, Beijing, environmental damages, lighthouse project, Philippines, Copernicus, natural disasters, climate change, Manila, soft power tool, geopolitical ambitions, security actor

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

Written by Rorry Daniels

While breakthroughs remain unlikely, the test in 2024 is whether the US and China can manage differences quietly and directly while under the political magnifying glass.

Faultlines9DLMarch 12, 2024US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident, 9DASHLINE, Rorry Daniels, US-China relationship, China, US, United States, balloon, spy balloon, Chinese surveillance, espionage, US-China diplomatic interaction, US elections, Taiwan, spy balloon incident, Biden administration, Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Beijing, bureaucracies, domestic politics, homeland security, bipartisan consensus, Washington, Xi Jinping, propaganda, state-driven, 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, Gaza, Middle East, NATO, Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s inner circle, US sanctions, Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, COVID recovery, authoritarianism, co-exist peacefully, free market principles, diversification, hedging, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, cross-Strait, US presidential and congressional elections, diplomacy, Taipei, non-proliferation, humanitarian aid

In Forum — Great power politics amid great turbulence

In Forum — Great power politics amid great turbulence

For many in the Global South and the Indo-Pacific, the West’s contrasting responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Isreal-Palestine conflict have revealed a hypocrisy that undermines the international order it is seeking to protect and promote.

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks a number of experts how these factors will shape great power competition.

Pakistan’s election — a primer

Written by Dr Filippo Boni

Pakistan is scheduled to hold its twelfth general election on 8 February, amid a deteriorating security situation in parts of the country, allegations of an uneven playing field against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, and with China and the United States waiting to find out who will lead the next Pakistani government.

South Asia9DLFebruary 5, 20249dashline, A primer on Pakistan’s elections, Filippo Boni, Pakistan, elections, Nawaz Sharif, Hafizabad, disqualification, general election, deteriorating security situation, uneven electoral playing field, Imran Khan, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, state secrets leak, imprisonment, military, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N, cricket bat logo, electoral candidates, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Peoples Party, PPP, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, climate change, policy position, electoral campaign, media freedom, Coalition for Free Media, Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, PFUJ, Council of Pakistan Newspapers Editors, CPNE, Tehreek Taliban Pakistan, TTP, militant groups, Islamic State Khorasan Province, ISKP, Balochistan, separatist militant groups, bilateral crisis, Iran, missile strike, Islamabad, Iran-Pakistan, Iran-Pakistan tensions, borders, US, China, Sino-Pakistani bilateral ties, BRI, CPEC, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, socio-economic development, military leadership, Afghanistan, President Biden, Shahbaz Sharif, UNGA, US-Pakistan relations, domestic security, regional security

In Forum: 2024 — US Strategy and the Indo-Pacific

In Forum: 2024 — US Strategy and the Indo-Pacific

To what extent can the US compete with China if it does not offer more economic opportunities to Indo-Pacific countries, especially due to mounting doubts about its reliability as a security guarantor in the region?

We invite several experts to assess this state of affairs.

The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security

The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security

Written by Wooyun Jo

The spy satellite launch reinforces the need for vigilant monitoring and surveillance to assess the capabilities and intentions of North Korea, as well as to strengthen regional defence against potential nuclear missile attacks.

East Asia9DLJanuary 17, 20249dashline, The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security, Wooyun Jo, North Korea, spy satellite, regional security, MALLIGYONG-1, South Korea, US, Japan, Korean Peninsula, Missile Technology Control Regime, satellite technology, Russia, critical technologies, heavy artillery ammunition, Moscow, Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine, technology transfer, military capabilities, spy satellite launch, inter-Korean relationship, Pyongyang, technological advancement, espionage, hostile nations, regional security dynamics, countering threats, detecting threats, long-range ballistic missile technology, United Nations, United Nations resolutions, UNSC, Vann Van Diepen, new technology, troop movements, strategic advantages, nuclear deterrence, intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, SLBMs, strategic bombers, intelligence-gathering capabilities, strategic assets, real-time intelligence, missiles technology, ballistic missile tests, security interests, regional allies, Yoon Suk-yeol, satellite launch, threat perception, nuclear tensions, space programme, missile capabilities, regional cooperation, deterrence measures, ROK-US-Japan, surveillance, security cooperation, General Security of Military Information Agreement, GSOMIA, Tokyo, ballistic missile defence drill, anti-submarine exercises, trilaterals, missile defence systems, joint military exercises, sanctions, nuclear programmes, missile programmes, economic sanctions, Seoul, Washington

Increased engagement with Taiwan needs less rhetoric and more (quiet) action

Increased engagement with Taiwan needs less rhetoric and more (quiet) action

Written by Dr Simona Grano

The key question remains to define and push for concrete tools and policies through which Europe can transform its growing solidarity towards Taiwan into a foundational basis of Europe’s China policy, without failing because of hindrances developing out of tight economic dependencies with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 20, 20239DashLine, Simona Grano, Increased engagement with Taiwan needs less rhetoric and more (quiet) action, China, Taiwan, geopolitics, geopolitical competition, US, trade, Beijing, Taiwan Strait, business, balance, democracy, Taiwan’s autonomy, universal public goods, COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains, semiconductor industry, like-minded, Russian invasion of Ukraine, human rights, Taiwan Issue, global economy, European Union, chip manufacturing industry, European Chips Act, trade agreement, China’s economic coercion, diversification, economic dependence, parliamentarian delegations, World Health Assembly (WHA), INTERPOL, ernational Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), COP28, public health, climate change, civil society, think tanks, NGOs, Taipei, Chinese trade practices, EU-China summit, de-risking

Italy and the Indo-Pacific: towards an Italian Indo-Pacific strategy

Italy and the Indo-Pacific: towards an Italian Indo-Pacific strategy

Written by Dr Gabriele Abbondanza

All things considered, it seems evident that Italy is ready to develop and issue a formal Indo-Pacific strategy that considers national, European, and Indo-Pacific interests as vital components of a strategic whole.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 6, 20239dashline, Italy and the Indo-Pacific: towards an Italian Indo-Pacific strategy, Gabriele Abbondanza, Indo-Pacific, Italy, flashpoints, Taiwan, East China Seas, South China Seas, Korean Peninsula, choke points, global maritime trade, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, macro-region, US, Indo-Pacific nations, Europe, IPSR, International Political Science Review, European foreign policy, France, UK, Germany, EU, European Union, Indo-Pacific strategy, Indo-Pacific committee, Italian parliament, naval deployments, Rome, Enlarged Mediterranean, Mediterraneo Allargato, United Nations, Carabiniere frigate, European missions, NATO missions, Indian Ocean, Indo-Pacific mission, Morosini offshore patrol vessel, offshore patrol vessels, South China Sea, multilateral exercises, Cavour carrier strike group, international law, multilateralism, strategic partnerships, China, beijing, international order, Pacific Island Forum, PIF, Vietnam, South Korea, Indian Ocean Rim Association, IORA, ASEAN, Italian-Indian-Japanese trilateral, Japan, Global Combat Air Programme, Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative, multilateral approach, strategic compass, political affiliation, foreign policy priorities, Chamber of Deputies, parliamentary committee, risk-benefit analysis

Movement on climate mobilities: developments from the Pacific Islands Forum

Movement on climate mobilities: developments from the Pacific Islands Forum

Written by Liam Moore

While alarmist reports of massive numbers of people potentially fleeing across borders because of climate change are incorrect and misunderstand the dynamics of migration, mobility — both within and between states — is a reality in the Pacific.

Pacific9DLNovember 29, 20239dashline, Movement on climate mobilities: Developments from the Pacific Islands Forum, Liam Moore, climate mobility, climate mobilities, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Pacific Island Forum, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility, Falepili Union treaty, Australia, Tuvalu, Pacific, COP28, Forum Dialogue Partners, Forum Communique, Implementation Plan for the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, climate change, climate disasters, human mobility, relocation migration, displacement, Declaration on the Establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility, Paris Agreement, fossil fuel, climate finance, decarbonisation, Jane McAdam, migration, Fiji, Pacific states, the Solomon Islands, cross-border mobility, asylum protections, climate refugees, migration pathways, alternative migration pathways, working visas, visa category, Chinese influence, sovereignty, state agency, Kausea Natano, Seve Paeniu, New Zealand, climate policy, US, residency, labour mobility schemes, labour mobility, bilateral agreements, Tuvalu-Australia agreement, migration agreements, security conditions, climate migrant, climate refugee, mobility options

The EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument — A new step in EU-China escalation?

The EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument — A new step in EU-China escalation?

Written by Sjorre Couvreur

The adoption of the Anti-Coercion Instrument entails an important step for the EU’s adjustment to an increasingly geoeconomic context in international trade policy.

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman

In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Dr Kate Cronin-Furman to discuss her important new book Hypocrisy and Human Rights: Resisting Accountability for Mass Atrocities.

The book investigates the diverse ways in which repressive regimes respond to calls for justice and accountability and argues that international pressure can produce valuable results through indirect paths.

In Conversation9DLOctober 17, 20239dashline, Kate Cronin-Furman, In Conversation, In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman, Hypocrisy and Human Rights: Resisting Accountability for Mass Atrocities, repression, regime, justice, accountability, human rights, noncompliance, international human rights pressure, quasi-compliance, UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), multilateral, human rights enforcement, US, UK, Western human rights enforcement efforts, Sri Lanka, civil war, mass atrocities, NGOs, UN Human Rights Council, peer states, ethnic majoritarian democracy, marginalised communities, Tamil, civilian, military, Sinhalese, Burmese Rohingya, ohingya, Rohingya, minority, counter-terrorism, national security, India, China, International Criminal Court, sanctions, war criminals, war crimes, reputational, transitional justice, international human rights norms, racism, islamophobia, media, Ukraine, Russia’s invasion, victims, audiences

Chartering a course for peace: EU-Philippines maritime security cooperation

Chartering a course for peace: EU-Philippines maritime security cooperation

Written by Daniela Braun, Marie Antoinette de Jesus, and Sophiya Navarro

Increasing EU-Philippine maritime security cooperation is a positive development that reflects both actors’ mutual interests and values, as well as their willingness to engage with each other and other Indo-Pacific actors.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLOctober 13, 20239dashline, Chartering a course for peace: EU-Philippines maritime security cooperation, EU, Philippines, European Union, European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Manila, Brussels, diplomatic relations, trade relations, trade exports, climate change, digital economy, connectivity, infrastructure, China, Beijing, Chinese aggression, South China Sea, Indo-Pacific, maritime disputes, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, geopolitical significance, intensifying competition, US, Washington, Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitics, global economy, Russian oil and gas, maritime security cooperation, maritime security, EU-Philippine, Bongbong, Marcos, Jr., Rodrigo Duterte, ASEAN Coordinator for Dialogue Relations with the EU, security cooperation, EU-Philippines Joint Committee Meeting, ocean governance, maritime issues, blue economy, CRIMARIO, Critical Maritime Routes Indian Ocean, maritime domain awareness, Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard, National Coast Watch Council Center, ASEAN, Indo-Pacific Regional Information Sharing Platform, IORIS, Enhancing Security Cooperation In and With Asia, ESIWA, multilateralism, rules-based order, maritime security partnership, Arbitral Ruling, 2016 arbitral ruling, US State Department, navigation freedoms, flight freedoms, EU Delegation in Manila, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, von der Leyen, defence assistance, threat assessments

The strawman defence is torching Taiwan’s military

The strawman defence is torching Taiwan’s military

Written by Michael Lostumbo

Taiwan should assess its existing force and all future investments and evaluate them from the lens of their warfighting potential, which should be the primary focus for their military.