Pakistan — 9DASHLINE

Don't expect any breakthroughs in India-Pakistan relations

Written by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Lacking confidence and bandwidth, Pakistan’s new government is unlikely to prioritise improving ties with India. If anything, India will be way down the pecking order of its policy actions.

South Asia9DLApril 4, 2024Syed Ali Zia Jaffery, 9dashline, Dont expect any breakthoughs in India-Pakistan relations, India, Pakistan, conflict, cooperation, ceasefire, LoC, Kashmir

Counter-insurgency dynamics in Balochistan: Examining militant surrenders and resurgences

Written by Sajid Aziz

The twin threats of separatist movement and militancy by religious-ethnic groups in Pakistan and Iran, respectively, have been perennial sources of mistrust, mutual accusations, frequent border skirmishes, and the recent military strikes and counter-strikes between the two states.

Faultlines9DLFebruary 20, 20249DASHLINE, Sajid Aziz, Counter-insurgency dynamics in Balochistan: Examining militant surrenders and resurgences, Pakistan, Balochistan, Sarfaraz Bangulzai, Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA), surrender, Balochistan’s separatist movement, separatism, separatist militant organisation, independence, Baloch Republican Army (BRA), United Baloch Army (UBA), Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistan’s armed forces, Gulzar Imam, military, intelligence, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), violence, Baloch, securitised, Demobilisation, Babar Yousaf, armed struggle, counter-insurgency, fighters, militants, insurgency, amnesty, decapitation strategy, infighting, terrorism, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), middle class, Fedayeen attacks, Majeed Brigade, security forces, Panjgur and Nushki districts, Chinese nationals, suicide attacks, human rights violations, Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP), UN Working Group on Enforced Disappearances, Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), Iran-Pakistan border, Iran, Gwader, Chahbar, port, Tehran, Islamabad, human smuggling, drug trafficking, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan’s election — a primer

Written by Dr Filippo Boni

Pakistan is scheduled to hold its twelfth general election on 8 February, amid a deteriorating security situation in parts of the country, allegations of an uneven playing field against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, and with China and the United States waiting to find out who will lead the next Pakistani government.

South Asia9DLFebruary 5, 20249dashline, A primer on Pakistan’s elections, Filippo Boni, Pakistan, elections, Nawaz Sharif, Hafizabad, disqualification, general election, deteriorating security situation, uneven electoral playing field, Imran Khan, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, state secrets leak, imprisonment, military, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N, cricket bat logo, electoral candidates, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Peoples Party, PPP, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, climate change, policy position, electoral campaign, media freedom, Coalition for Free Media, Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, PFUJ, Council of Pakistan Newspapers Editors, CPNE, Tehreek Taliban Pakistan, TTP, militant groups, Islamic State Khorasan Province, ISKP, Balochistan, separatist militant groups, bilateral crisis, Iran, missile strike, Islamabad, Iran-Pakistan, Iran-Pakistan tensions, borders, US, China, Sino-Pakistani bilateral ties, BRI, CPEC, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, socio-economic development, military leadership, Afghanistan, President Biden, Shahbaz Sharif, UNGA, US-Pakistan relations, domestic security, regional security

Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy

Written by Michael Kugelman

Ultimately, like any democratic leader, Muizzu will need to walk a tightrope between foreign policy imperatives and domestic political considerations. A balancing policy abroad will also require one at home.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 1, 20249dashline, Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, India, China, Beijing, Male, pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, “India Out” movement, India Out, India’s military, corruption, Maldivians, coup, Islamist extremism, Hindu, International Yoga Day, New Delhi, hydrographic surveys, Turkey, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lakshadweep, Indian tourists, tourism, economic reliance, trade deficit, Chinese research vessel, intelligence, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, intervened militarily, democracy, development, trade agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives-India relations, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, India First, “India First” policy, cybersecurity, COVID-19 vaccines, trade deal, defence deal, UN climate summit, security cooperation, debt, Climate change, geopolitical, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, nationalism, sovereignty, independence, economic dependence, Chinese influence, hedging policy, hedging, great power competition, anti-Modi, sea lanes, EU, disinformation, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), People’s National Congress (PNC) party

Kashmir’s youthful aspirants: Politics amidst control and change

Written by Dr Mohd Tahir

The post-Article 370 political landscape shifted political discourse within Kashmir from one of self-rule to development. While this shift is a matter of political expediency for local leaders in the context of the restrictive political environment, it has also opened a window of opportunity for many emerging young Kashmiri leaders.

BIMSTEC revival: A compelling alternative to the BRI in the Bay of Bengal

Written by Eve Register

It will be important for BIMSTEC to learn from the mistakes of the BRI if it is to work as a viable alternative for countries in the Bay of Bengal region.

Player or pawn? The geopolitics of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Written by Syeda Saba Batool

Whether the NSG can impartially assess India’s and Pakistan’s bids for membership is a litmus test for the group’s credibility.

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

A looming challenge: Women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape

Written by Dr Amira Jadoon and Iqraa Bukhari

A shift towards utilising female fighters for pragmatic reasons would not be without precedent, as evidenced in case studies of Boko Haram or Islamic State affiliates in Southeast Asia. Pakistan, in particular, presents a largely “untapped female operative market”.

Emerging Issues, South Asia9DLSeptember 29, 20239DashLine, A looming challenge: women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape, AMIRA JADOON, Iqraa Bukhari, Pakistan, terrorism, political violence, women, woman, female, Jamia Hafsa, terrorist attacks, Counterterrorism Department (CTD), Pakistan Air Force, Badaber, Shari Baloch, University of Karachi, Confucius Institutes, Chinese, Turbat, Noor Jahan Baloch, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan, Majeed Brigade, suicide attacker, paramilitary troops, Taliban (TTP), gender, women in terrorism, anti-state, Islamic State, female recruits, gender-blind counterterrorism, counterterrorism, Afghan jihad, mothers, daughters, wives, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), jihad, martyrdom, 9/11, Islamic State Khorasan, Afghanistan, Taliban, Baloch insurgency, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, sectarian, Sardar Bahadur Khan Women’s University, Dera Ismail Khan, Mullah Fazlullah, Islamic State's Bushra Network, Middle East, Boko Haram, Southeast Asia, anti-feminist narratives, misogynistic, liberals, ethnonational, A looming challenge: Women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape

German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?

Written by Hendrik A. Pasligh

As the European arms industry scrambles to manage the needs of and lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine, Germany has sought to rekindle its defence-industrial cooperation with India.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 21, 20239dashline, German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?, Hendrik A. Pasligh, Germany, India, submarines, weapons arsenal, arms industry, Russia-Ukraine war, defence-industrial cooperation, key technologies, domestic defence industry, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Indian Navy, Mumbai, Project-75, geopolitical dynamics, defence industries, US defence, European defence, artillery shells, long-term economic feasibility, Rheinmetall, Zeitenwende, Boris Pistorius, strategic partnership, Berlin, New Delhi, Germany-India partnership, arms sales, border disputes, Pakistan, China, PRC, nuclear powers, Moscow, beijing, Russian arms, strategic interest, Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s navy, uncrewed surface and underwater vehicles, USV, UUV, self-sufficiency, indigenous aircraft carrier programme, international cooperation, ‘Make in India’ policy, technology transfer, domestic industrial capacity, rules-based international order, German National Security Strategy, Annalena Baerbock, feminist foreign policy, gender-based violence, NATO, defence startups, economies of scale

In Conversation with Sumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Sumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson to discuss their highly relevant new book The Sino-Indian Rivalry: Implications for Global Order.

Showing how the Sino-Indian rivalry has evolved from the late 1940s to the present day, the authors underscore its significance for global politics and highlight how the asymmetries between India and China have the potential to escalate conflict in the future.

In Conversation9DLSeptember 20, 20239dashline, In Conversation with Šumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson: The Sino-Indian Rivalry, The Sino-Indian Rivalry, Šumit Ganguly, William Thompson, India, PRC, China, People's Republic of China, Indian colonial troops, British colonialism, colonial era, Boxer Rebellion, Nehru, hegemony, Tibet, Mao, Zhou Enlai, Tibetan Khampa rebels, US, Sino-American rapprochement, New Delhi, Dalai Lama, government-in-exile, territorial disputes, Quad, indo-pacific strategy, Obama, Trump, Biden, Himalayas, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, East China Sea, civil society, non-state actors, Modi, Manmohan Singh, economic interdependence, summits, Rajiv Gandhi, Deng Xiaoping, economic cooperation, Galwan, multilateral formats, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, strategic rivalry, South Asia, Pakistan, BRICS, positional rivalry, In Conversation with Sumit Ganguly Manjeet Pardesi and William Thompson

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

Faultlines9DLAugust 11, 2023China’s uncertain future as a global security provider, Lukas Fiala, 9DashLine, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Beijing, Global South, security, mediator, Riyadh, Tehran, Middle East, Washington, diplomacy, isolation, COVID-19, pandemic, United States, China’s overseas security strategy, strategy, foreign policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, mediation, peace and security, peace broker, non-state actors, intrastate conflicts, statist approach, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, security and defence cooperation, Hu Jintao, United Nations peacekeeping (UNPK) missions, South Sudan, Mali, Africa, Latin America, multilateral, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military base in Djibouti, Global Security Initiative (GSI), security actor, US-led global security order, global security governance, UN Charter, indivisible security, sovereignty, 1975 Helsinki Accords, Vladimir Putin, NATO expansion, NATO, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western imperialism, imperial history, Western colonial powers, century of national humiliation, Soviet Union, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Western hegemony, principle of non-interference, non-aligned movement, Cold War, non-intervention, 干涉, 干预, security provider, Sudan, Libya, ‘Go Out Strategy’ (走出去战略), Chinese state-owned enterprises, natural resources, raw materials, multilateral lenders, development finance, human rights, good governance, 2008 Beijing Olympics, al-Bashir regime, African Union, Darfur, Libyan civil war, People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA), Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese interests, power projection, security-development nexus, liberal peace, developmental peace, Ethiopia, civil war, Pakistan, South Asia, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamic extremism, Islamabad, sovereign lender, arbiter, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Saudi-Iran rapprochement, Iraq, Afghanistan, global war on terror, piracy, Gulf of Aden, 9dashline

India’s prolonged wait for MQ-9B drones ends

Written by Vedant Saigal

In the aftermath of the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, the Indian Navy used two MQ-9 SeaGuardian drones to keep an eye on Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean Region.

South Asia9DLAugust 8, 20239dashline, India’s prolonged wait for MQ-9B drones ends, India, MQ-9B, drones, Defense Acquisition Council, DAC, Rajnath Singh, United States, Prime Minister Modi, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., GA-ASI, surveillance capabilities, Indian Ocean region, China, technology transfers, Gulf War, modern warfare, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, UAVs, Manned and Unmanned Teaming, MUM-T, cyberattacks, cybercrimes, Russia-Ukraine war, UAV industry, tactical technology, battlefield surveillance, artillery spotting, reconnaissance, target acquisition, surveillance, unmanned drones, fighter jets, South Asia, Pakistan, Cai Hong-4, CH-4, Wing Loong-II, military infrastructure, predator drones, air-to-ground missiles, smart bombs, strike capabilities, Israeli drones, Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance, ISR, Galwan Valley, Indian Navy, Indian Ocean Region, IOR, General Atomics, Djibouti, People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLAN, New Delhi, Chinese vessels, missile tests, Yuan Wang 6, Yuan Wang 5, Malacca, Lombok, Sunda, Unmanned Aerial Systems, remotely piloted aircraft system, RPAS, Indian Armed Forces, SkyGuardian, SkyGuardian drones, predator drone, MQ-9 Reaper, Fault-Tolerant Flight Control System, Triple Redundant Avionics System, Digital Electronic Engine Control, DEEC, defence expenditure, US-India military ties, US-India, technology, Vedant Saigal

In Brief with James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia

This week, 9DASHLINE had the opportunity to speak with James Crabtree, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia (IISS).

In Brief9DLJuly 24, 20239dashline, James Crabtree, International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia, IISS, Asia, security dynamics, Indo-Pacific, Shangri-La Dialogue, India, New Delhi, international order, aspirant great powers, global order, China, US-China, Blinken, US-China relations, Janet Yellen, G20, APEC, Xi Jinping, semiconductor export restrictions, Singapore, Heng Swee Keat, Little Red Dot, economic ties, security partnership, great power rivalry, superpower rivalry, Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore military, Indonesia, North Korea, south korea, Pakistan, joint naval exercises, great broker, Southeast Asia, Joko Widodo, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Kiev, inward investment, power projection, ASEAN, South Natuna Sea, regional security cooperation, joint drills, Myanmar, Sino-US competition, minilateral groupings, Quad, pan-regional security, Track-I, In Brief with James Crabtree Executive Director IISS-Asia

India pushing for defence modernisation as its focus shifts to the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Vivek Mishra

To effectively counter threats from both China and Pakistan, India needs to maintain a twin-domain focus, enhancing its capabilities in both the continental and maritime domains.

Khan versus the rest: What lies ahead for Pakistan

Written by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

The crisis can only end if the government realises that preventing people from exercising their right to vote will be counterproductive going forward.

Ten-year review of China’s defence budget: Steadily toward modernisation

Written by Fei Su and Xiao Liang

Despite concerns over the transparency on the official figures, the sustained growth in China's military spending demonstrates its unwavering commitment to the PLA’s modernisation to become a ‘world-class’ military by the mid-21st century.

Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act

Written by Bhumika Sharma

Given the lack of international consensus, a unique opportunity exists for India to address the protection gap in South Asia’s policy regime for climate migrants.

South Asia9DLApril 12, 20239DashLine, Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act, Bhumika Sharma, South Asia, climate vulnerability, climate change, floods in Pakistan, Pakistan, displacement, World Bank, climate-sensitive policies, climate-induced migration, internal displacement, Internally Displaced Persons, cross-border population movements, migration, climate-related risks, floods, salinity ingression, Bangladesh, India, climatically displaced persons, 2012 Nansen Initiative, Switzerland, Norway, humanitarian assistance, climate mobility, climate displacement contingencies, 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, 1967 Protocol, IDPs, Kampala Convention, international human rights law, United Nations Human Rights Committee, Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand, principle of non-refoulement, Kiribati, resource scarcity, economic insecurity, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Global Warming, UN IPCC, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), conflict, droughts, erratic rainfall, seasonal labour migration, income diversification, rising sea levels, cross-border transhumance arrangements, West Africa, Asian Development Bank, West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Sundarbans Delta, trafficking, human trafficking, slavery, Nepal, Terai, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, seasonal migration, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, Palk Strait, humanitarian visas, relocation, resettlement, 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act