A superpower diminished: Trump’s chaotic foreign policy is undermining US credibility in Asia

Written by Hunter Marston

Despite the opportunity presented by American retrenchment, China lacks the soft power to step in as a natural leader and its economic and political influence continue to be met with suspicion by regional elites.

Discover the May issue of The Navigator – out now

This month we cover the India-Pakistan flare-up that reignited nuclear concerns, followed by a burst of regional diplomacy. Our briefs examine how China and India are turning foreign policy into a tool of domestic control — through maritime coercion in Beijing’s case, and treaty-based pressure from New Delhi.

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News9DLMay 30, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, Russia, tariffs, Indus Water Treaty, South China Sea, India-Pakistan, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Nuclear, France, New Caledonia, Macron, Mu Sochua, Cambodia

Navigating the middle: Japan-Cambodia relations and the challenge of geopolitical competition

Written by Dr Sophal Ear

Cambodia offers a litmus test: if Japan can sustain influence there, it may do so across mainland Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, East Asia9DLMay 29, 20259DASHLINE, Sophal Ear, Navigating the middle: Japan–Cambodia relations and the challenge of geopolitical competition, Khmer Rouge, Cambodia, Japan, United States, China, diplomacy, development, peacebuilding, foreign policy, agency, Great power rivalry, Tokyo, liberal values, Southeast Asia, defense diplomacy, Cambodia’s Ream base, 1991 Paris Peace Agreements, United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC), Official Development Assistance (ODA), aid, bilateral donor, Sihanoukville, soft infrastructure, authoritarianism, Phnom Penh, Strategic Partnership, international norms, rule of law, maritime security, ASEAN, South China Sea, Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) framework, Yōko Kamikawa, human resource development, digital connectivity, climate change, US tariffs, transhipment, public debt, United Nations Human Rights Council, debt trap, European Union, “Everything But Arms” scheme, sanctions, democratic backsliding, Hun Manet, “multi-vector” diplomacy, Beijing, alignment, national interest, liberal internationalism, Belt and Road Initiative, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), civil society, Cultural diplomacy, Japan-Cambodia Kizuna Festival, Japanese pop culture, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, State of Southeast Asia surveys, Ream Naval Base, Vietnamese People’s Navy, South China Sea (SCS), multilateralisation, Cold War, Soviet, balancing, non-alignment, middle power, FDI, The Asia Foundation, Cambodia-Japan Cooperation Center (CJCC), Navigating the middle: Japan-Cambodia relations and the challenge of geopolitical competition

Discover the April issue of The Navigator – out now

This month we explore rising economic tensions in Northeast Asia, as Japan and South Korea respond to a new wave of US tariffs. We also turn to Myanmar, where a devastating earthquake has worsened an already dire humanitarian crisis. Despite urgent calls for aid, the junta is blocking relief efforts while pushing ahead with its plans for elections amid ongoing conflict.

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News9DLApril 25, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID, Myanmar, Russia, Myanmar earthquake, tariffs

Trump’s second chance to make a first impression in Asia

Written by Chris Estep

Trump should decisively establish his administration’s approach to competition with China by issuing his own Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document and endorsing it in a televised speech from the Oval Office.

The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia

Written by Emma Whitmyer

Seoul and Tokyo should begin preparing for a future in which they navigate regional challenges without a close ally who shares the same values.

East Asia9DLApril 1, 2025The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia, China, Japan, United States, South Korea, Trump, Vance, North Korea, Russia, US, Hyundai, Yoon Suk Yeol, Special Measure Agreement, Forces Korea, Emma Whitmyer, ASPI

Discover the March issue of The Navigator – out now

This month, alongside our usual roundup of events, we examine how India is balancing oil imports amid geopolitical pressures and the impact of defunding Radio Free Asia on US soft power in the Indo-Pacific.

Both developments underscore the shifting balance of influence, where economic choices and media narratives are shaping global power dynamics.

News9DLMarch 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID, Chetan Rana, David MacSweeney, Radio Free Asia, Voice of America, Myanmar, Russia, Soft Power

Has Australia turned its back on free trade?

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler and Viet Dung Trinh

By balancing domestic production and free trade, the Future Made in Australia Act aims to promote economic growth, create jobs, and support Australia's transition to a net-zero emissions economy.

Discover the February issue of The Navigator – Out Now

This month we examine Berlin’s economic and political challenges, a tough stance on China, and Southeast Asia’s reaction to the arrival of the Trump 2.0 presidency amid US policy uncertainty.

News9DLFebruary 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Hunter Marston, Roderick Kefferpütz, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Ukraine, German, Friedrich Merz, Germany, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID

Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China

Written by Dr Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova

Risks remain for Europe not just internally, but also externally, as China's support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and US pressure for a unified transatlantic approach limit the EU's room for manoeuvre.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLFebruary 19, 20259DASHLINE, Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China, UNA ALEKSANDRA BĒRZIŅA-ČERENKOVA, EU, European Union, European Commission, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ursula von der Leyen, China, geopolitics, EU's China policy, partner-competitor-rival trifecta, de-risking, critical raw materials, supply chains, EV imports, anti-subsidy investigation, 2019 strategic outlook, Political Guidelines, cooperation-competition-rivalry, “no-limits” friendship, Russia, economic security, economic statecraft, G7, resilient, rare earths, semiconductor, Mission letter, European Green Deal, Maroš Šefčovič, Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) Forum, AI, US, Chinese military, tariff, Japan, high value-added markets, US bipartisan anti-China stance, Beijing, PRC, EU member states, China-Russia relationship, US President Joe Biden, Ukraine, Donald Trump, Hungary, Germany, Slovakia, transatlantically

No room for missteps: Cambodia’s strategic wishlist For Trump 2.0

Written by Chhay Lim

Policies that force Cambodia into a binary choice risk deepening its reliance on China and undermining US efforts to maintain influence in Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia9DLFebruary 6, 20259DASHLINE, Chhay Lim, No Room for Missteps: Cambodia’s Strategic Wishlist For Trump 2.0, Donald Trump, White House, Cambodia, Strategic wishlist, Cambodia's strategic wishlist, Trump 2.0, Phnom Penh, Phnom Penh’s close alignment with Beijing on foreign policy, Prime Minister Hun Manet, Trump administration, proxy for Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, infrastructure development, digital transformation, trade diversification, maritime capacity, economic positioning, Vietnam, The Philippines, US-China competition, Hedging, strategic hedging, Prioritising Pragmatic Cooperation Over Ideology, prioritise economic and development cooperation, maritime security, 90-day suspension of USAID, USAID, liberal democratic values, transactional, Western assistance, Digital innovation, Public health, civic engagement, overdependence, hub for technology, digital entrepreneurship, Greater Mekong subregion, digital divide, inadequate infrastructure, cybersecurity, public-private partnerships, digital literacy, Washington, great power competitio, digital sovereignty, data sovereignty, data security, economic autonomy, Ream Naval Base, Maritime Self-Defence Force, Japan, Gulf of Thailand, military exchanges, Cambodian policymakers, security engagements, security ties with Japan, binary choice, US-Cambodia relations, Democracy, human rights, democracy promotion, Cambodian Foreign Ministry, Cambodia Democracy and Human Rights Act, US Congress, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, mutual respect and understanding, cooperation, Cambodia-China relations, Cambodian People’s Party, Communist Party of Vietnam, national interest, Moscow, China-Vietnam, balance relations with Beijing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, balanced relations with Beijing, great power rivalry, elephants fight or make love, smaller states, US-Vietnam trade, China-Vietnam trade, Thailand, China, Cambodia’s reliance on China, political legitimacy, security assurances, Chinese Communist Party, ideological pressure, regime change, strategic ambiguity, transparency, No room for missteps: Cambodia’s strategic wishlist For Trump 2.0

How the Russia-North Korea alliance challenges China's strategic interests in Northeast Asia

Written by Anny Boc

Beijing’s passive approach only reflects its dilemma of balancing its regional interests with its need to preserve strategic ties with both Russia and North Korea, especially as the competition between China and the United States is likely to intensify.

South Korea’s martial law moment: constitutional crisis, and the regional order

Written by Dr Seohee Park

This crisis represents more than a domestic Korean political drama; it tests the resilience of regional alliances and could accelerate broader geopolitical shifts in an increasingly complex Northeast Asian landscape.

East Asia9DLJanuary 6, 20259DASHLINE, Constitutional crisis and regional order: South Korea’s martial law moment, Seohee Park, South Korea, Korea, Yoon, Yoon government, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon Suk-yeol, Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, martial law, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, stock manipulation, corruption, People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hoon, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, National Assembly, Mencian principle, authoritarian, collective memory, Syngman Rhee’s anti-communist crackdowns, Park Chung-hee’s military dictatorship, Chun Doo-hwan, 1980 Gwangju Democracy Movement, national psyche, military, Yeouido, lawmakers, opposition, South Korea’s democracy, democracy, Constitutional Court, impeachment, bipartisan, Democratic Party (DP), Donald Trump, White House, regional stability, Shigeru Ishiba, Japan, Northeast Asia, diplomatic realignment, diplomatic, Korea passing, Chinese President Xi, Seoul-Tokyo rapprochement, semiconductor, trade, restrictions, Camp David summit, security cooperation, Lee Jae-myung, constitutional crisis, Moon Jae-in, North Korea, America First, Tokyo, Asian NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, ASEAN, allies, Korean Peninsula, US-Japan alliance, US-UK relationship, Quad, India, Australia, Official Security Assistance (OSA), Philippines, Indonesia, Mongolia, Djibouti, semiconductor supply chains, emerging technologies, impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo (Prime Minister)

NATO on a risky course

Written by Uwe Hoering

With every further escalation, the pressure to close ranks, to form hostile blocs and thus the danger of a military confrontation grows.

Despite doubts, the Quad is here to stay

Written by Lucas Myers

The Quad’s role is clearer in 2024 than in 2017 or 2007. It coordinates and ensures the provision of public goods in an era of great power competition that is about much more than just traditional hard power security.

Pacific, Faultlines9DLNovember 26, 20249DASHLINE, Lucas Myers, Despite doubts, the Quad is here to stay, Quad, Quad Leaders’ Meeting, Quad Leaders' Summit, Delaware, US President Joe Biden, The Quad is here to stay, Delaware readout, Wilmington, US electoral season, New Delhi, Biden's home, New York, Japan, Australia, UN meeting, US scheduling conflicts, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Shigeru Ishiba, Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Quad collapsed, talk shop, counter-China coalition, Beijing, Southeast Asia, Pacific, Quad’s purpose., force for good, big-ticket infrastructure, 400 million doses, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), Indo-Pacific, USD 140 million for undersea cables, Open RAN network in Palau, Palau, Global South, undersea cables, USD 500 million cable network, testing us all, East and South China Seas, non-Quad countries, latticework” concept, US-centered alliance system, Western Pacific, AUKUS, the Squad, Asian NATO, minilaterals, US-centric security architecture, rules-based order coalition, US Coast Guard, Papua New Guinea, Papua New Guinea’s landslides, Typhoon Yagi, Kevin Rudd, 2024 Quad summit, 2022 Quad Summit in Tokyo, Harris administration, Republican Party, Asia First, Republican White House, Development Finance Corporation, allied burden sharing, India, United States, Here to stay, Minilateral grouping, Wilson Center

In Forum: Donald Trump re-elected, the Indo-Pacific reacts

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks several experts what to expect from the next US administration and its potential impact on the Indo-Pacific region.

Editor's Picks9DLNovember 11, 20249DASHLINE, Donald Trump re-elected, the Indo-Pacific reacts, Matthew sussex, Kei koga, Yuki Tatsumi, andrea chloe wong, Kate clayton, Kate Clayton, Australia must adapt swiftly, Reaganesque 'Peace through strength', Trump's transactional world, grand strategic bargains, US security partner, iron-clad, Russia, China, American politics, misty-eyed sentiments, America first, transactional, Shigeru Ishiba, US-Japan alliance, 2 percent of GDP, Donald Trump, Ukraine war, gaza, Trump administration, Shinzo abe, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Asian NATO, Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), cultivate a personal relationship with Trump, National Security Advisor, latticework of alliances and partnerships, bilateral negotiations, equitable alliance, tough decisions, force Japan to make tough decisions, industrial security, positive disruptor, more uncertainties for the philippines, Japan faces tough national security decisions, Manila, protectionism, Filipinos, 350, 000 Filipinos, US Department of Homeland Security, 5th largest unlawful immigrant population, immigration, household spending, South China Sea, boosting defence cooperatio, maritime aggression, AUKUS's future in doubt, AUKUS Agreement, Australia, Philippines, Japan, AUKUS Agreement is in trouble, Indo-Pacific, US-Australia relations, Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact, tariffs, Southeast Asia, diplomatic footprint in the Pacific, Pacific, climate change, Quad, middle powers, Joe Biden, US disinterest, America, India, climate change cooperation, Europe, Pacific Islands, Jake Sullivan, multilayered security framework

Departing from isolationism: Japan’s emergence as a regional security actor

Written by Lionel Fatton

Amid China’s growing belligerence and strained Sino-Taiwanese relations, Tokyo is trapped in an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma. To solve it, Japan has resolved to become more engaged in regional security dynamics to reduce the risk of cross-strait conflict, thereby lowering the probability of entrapment.

East Asia9DLOctober 15, 2024Lionel Fatton, 9dashline, Departing from isolationism: Japan’s emergence as a regional security actor, Japan, defence, regional security, Taiwan, China, united states

The yen's fluctuation and its geopolitical ripple effects: A new normal in Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Seohee Park

Beyond its borders, the yen’s fluctuations have sent ripples throughout the Indo-Pacific region. As regional economies are also influenced by the yen’s depreciation, the spectre of competitive devaluations looms large.