Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — 9DASHLINE

Japan’s defence plans: What matters is implementation

Written by Dr Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Without continuous efforts in Japan including securing monetary and political capital — together with coordinating and cooperating with regional partners — Tokyo’s push for defence modernisation will face a myriad of challenges going forward.

East Asia9DLMay 8, 2023Japan’s defence plans: what matters is implementation, 9DashLine, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan, defence, military, National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Buildup Program (DBP), pacifism, Japan’s pacifist constitution, Tokyo, Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF), counterattacks, military readiness, defence planning, National Defense Program Guidelines, China, North Korea, Russia, threats, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, conflict, warfare, military modernisation, strike capabilities, nuclear doctrine, preemptive strikes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, hybrid warfare, psychological warfare, cognitive warfare, capabilities, resilience, hypervelocity gliding projectiles, Okinawa, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, defence budget, US-Japan alliance, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral coordination, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, free and open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), NATO, Southeast Asia, rule of law, security dilemma

The Chinese dragon may spout fire but is not ten feet tall yet

Written by Joe Varner

A strong US industrial base with sufficient munitions stockpiles and weapons systems is critical for deterring Beijing in war.

The real reason Europe dislikes the Inflation Reduction Act

Written by Thijs Stegeman

Given the current challenges to the liberal order, improved coordination and consideration among its defenders is crucial. This starts with the US acknowledging and discussing the legitimate concerns of its allies instead of dismissing them.

Faultlines9DLMarch 13, 20239DashLine, The real reason Europe dislikes the Inflation Reduction Act, The real reason Europe dislikes the IRA, Thijs Stegeman, Inflation Reduction Act, subsidy scheme, climate activism, US, US-EU relationship, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump, NATO, tariffs, Iran nuclear deal, Biden, export restrictions, semiconductors, China, energy transition, sustainable energy, electric vehicles, solar panels, unfair competition, market-distorting government aid, Washington, US exceptionalism, Congress, Senator Joe Manchin, Democrats, Brussels, US allies, subsidiarisation, standard setter, regulatory approach, EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), fair competition, energy tax credits, green manufacturing, green investment, deindustrialisation, WTO rules, local content, tax break, North America, French President Emmanuel Macron, US military assistance, transatlantic unity, Trade and Technology Council, EU Commission, Green Deal Industrial Plan, EU-US alliance, liberal order

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

With Australian elections ushering in a change of government and Aotearoa New Zealand’s planned parliamentary elections this year, 9DASHLINE sought the views of several experts on the state of both nations’ foreign and defence policies.

Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20232023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons, 9dashline, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, New Zealand, China, United States, Australian elections, parliamentary elections, foreign and defence policies, geopolitics, NICHOLAS ROSS SMITH, Jacinda Ardern, trading partner, security relationship, middle-ground position, Wang Yi, NZ Labour Party, Wellington, National party, Christopher Luxon, putative Indo-Pacific ‘hedging’ strategy, MELISSA CONLEY TYLER, import restrictions, Prime Minister Albanese, President Xi, G20 Summit, China’s economic coercion, climate change policies, clean energy, Pacific Island countries, 2026 UN Conference of the Parties, JASON YOUNG, supply chain resilience, social cohesion, economic resilience, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Japan, United Kingdom, Partners in the Blue Pacific, President Biden, APEC Summit, China’s Covid restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s activities in the South China Sea, liberal-democratic Western bloc, Moscow, Beijing, geopolitical shatterbelt, Taiwan, Canberra, Tokyo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nanaia Mahuta, Free Trade Agreements (FTA), European Union, trade diversification, anti-nuclear advocacy

ASEAN enters 2023 in a moment of crisis

Written by Hunter Marston

Some experts suggest Indonesia is likely to propose adopting a seven-vote threshold instead of requiring all ten members to agree on passing a measure. This would go a long way to making the institution more agile, responsive, and decisive.

Southeast Asia9DLJanuary 17, 20239dashline, ASEAN prepares to enter 2023 in a moment of crisis, Hunter Marston, ASEAN, East Asia Summit, Phnom Penh, power competition, consensus, regional, Southeast Asian, Sino-US rivalry, democracy versus authoritarianism, coup in Myanmar, myanmar, China, USA, Indonesia, Cold War, Vietnam’s occupation of Cambodia, Vietnam, Cambodia, withdrawal of US forces from Thailand, Soviet, civil war in Myanmar, Five Point Consensus, bloc, ASEAN centrality, Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore, Myanmar military, junta, Myanmar Junta, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, Malaysia, Cambodia’s strongman Hun Sen, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, authoritarian, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), Continental versus maritime Southeast Asia, Philippines, military junta, South China Sea, democracy, Laos, territorial claims in the East Sea, Code of Conduct for maritime disputes, Timor-Leste, United States, US-China rivalry, Hoang Thi Ha, Japan, Australia, minilateral, Quad, AUKUS, Great Power competition, US President Joe Biden, Washington, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin, United Nations, rules-based order, Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, diversity, 1991 Paris Peace Accords, military regime, Yangon, “CMLV” states, Asian Financial Crisis, trade, currency exchange regime, ASEAN’s convening power, ASEAN enters 2023 in a moment of crisis

Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies

Written by Eva Seiwert

The EU and allies should scrap the framing of ‘democracies vs autocracies’ not just with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also when speaking about China’s increase in power.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 12, 20239dashline, Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies, Eva Seiwert, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, World War II, European Union, EU, Moscow, Russia's aggression, Western governments, democracy, Autocracy, the West against the Rest, democracies vs autocracies, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), UNGA resolution, sanctions, SWIFT, Belarus, North KoreaNorth Korea, Syria, Nicaragua, Eritrea, Iran, drones, China, trade, rules-based international order, Global South, Global North, India, abstention, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Russia’s war, the West, Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), neutrality, anti-Americanism, Cold War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, vaccine nationalism, climate change, Western hypocrisy and selfishness, Ukrainian refugees, Beijing, Western double standards, anti-West narratives, Arab World, Latin America, Africa, Russian and Chinese media outlets, UN Charter, international law, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Argentina, Senegal, G7 summit in Schloss Elmau, G7, G20, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

As a reinvigorated Quad steps up its engagement, some observers have called for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to establish a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific via a standing maritime force. But how viable is this idea?

Pacific9DLJanuary 11, 20239dashline, The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific, Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, standing maritime force, Blake Herzinger, United States, military, vaccination, supply chains, climate, maritime security, Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, Quad vaccine partnership, Beijing, China, Australia, India, Japan, Horn of Africa, military alliance, Indian Ocean, New Delhi, South or East China Seas, East China Seas, South China Sea, navy, Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, Gulf of Aden, maritime trade, geoeconomic, Pacific islands, Canberra, Pacific arc, Retired US Admiral Gary Roughead, Pentagon, Washington, defence planning, sea control, Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, rule of law, sovereignty, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, Quad Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief meeting, Asian NATO, Quad Leaders’ Meeting, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Taiwan Straits, Korean peninsula, ASEAN, Canada, south korea, Taiwan

The problem is not a power transition

Written by Michael J. Mazarr

The US-China relationship is not accurately captured as a power transition, but it is a clash of an often self-righteous leading power and a dissatisfied challenger. That recipe is one of the most combustible in world politics.

Faultlines9DLDecember 2, 20229DashLine, Michael J. Mazarr, The problem is not a power transition, power transition, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Party Congress, 20th Party Congress, national rejuvenation, power, USA, sanctions, great power, United States, hierarchy, world politics, international relations, international relations theory, index of national power, global norms, American strategy, comprehensive national power, international order, GDP, technology, hegemon, hegemony, Beijing, debt, housing bubble, liberal internationalism, Liberal International Order, demographics, fertility rate, dependency ratio, per capita wealth, Autocracy, autocratic rule, material power, Soft Power, diplomacy, World Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, European Union, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US-Japan-Australia-Taiwan coalition, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, counterbalancing, human rights, UN, post-war international order, power measurement, Stacie Goddard, community of common destiny for mankind, rising power, John Ikenberry, institutionalist theory, exceptionalism, US-led order, Daniel Rosen, Jessica Chen Weiss

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

A domestic audience for a global spotlight: Indonesia’s G20 presidency and the Bali Summit

Written by Radityo Dharmaputra and Demas Nauvarian

The Global South can play an essential role as the host of a peace forum after the G20 Summit, and Indonesia — following its historical role in the Bandung Conference and the Non-Aligned Movement — can be the initiator of such a forum.

Editor's Picks9DLNovember 15, 20229DashLine, A domestic audience for a global spotlight: Indonesia’s G20 presidency and the Bali Summit, Radityo Dharmaputra, Demas Nauvarian, Indonesia, G20, Bali Summit, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), ASEAN, MIKTA, BRICS, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Australia, post-pandemic recovery, global health, energy transition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Global South, Bandung Conference, Non-Aligned Movement, Lowy Institute, Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDI-P, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Demokrat, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Kyiv, Moscow, Evan Laksmana, former President Yudhoyono, UN, G7 Summit, East Asia, economic growth, food crisis, energy crisis, economic recession, geopolitics, UN General Assembly, grain initiative, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, middle-power, Multilateralism, peace

Why India won’t break from Russia.. yet

Written by Ian Hall

New Delhi clearly believes — rightly — that India’s relationship with the United States, underpinned by a shared interest in better managing China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, is sufficiently robust to weather disagreement over this war.

Pacific9DLNovember 7, 20229DashLine, Ian Hall, Why India won’t break from Russia… yet, India, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-China bloc, Russia's aggression, Russian gas, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine war, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister Modi, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), SCO Summit, Vladimir Putin, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Russia’s invasion, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation, Food Prices, UN Security Council, Security Council Resolution, annexation, UN General Assembly (UNGA), COVID-19, post-pandemic recovery, Indian economy, Sino-Indian border, Himalayas, New Delhi, Moscow, Kremlin, Beijing, United States, Indo-Pacific, China’s coercion, humanitarian crisis, Indian students, media, diplomacy, Soviet, military hardware, S-400 air defence systems, Pakistan, Alliance, allies, multipolar order, bloc, nuclear, geopolitics, China challenge, nuclear submarine, South Asia, Indian Ocean, client state