Joe Varner — 9DASHLINE

Best of 2023: China as a global actor

It was a busy year: the tenth anniversary of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, the ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about China’s role therein, as well as the increasingly urgent Taiwan issue, are just a few examples of topics that have made it to the top of analysts’ and policymakers’ agendas in 2023.

We summarise some of our most-read pieces about China as a global actor, which also generated a lot of discussion and debate among our readers.

North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon

Written by Joe Varner

Even though this satellite launch failed, it suggests that Pyongyang is following the model of other nuclear weapons states to develop and refine its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

East Asia9DLJuly 20, 2023North Korea: successful satellite launch coming soon, Joe Varner, North Korea, Reconnaissance Satellite, North Korea Space Program, Nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence, Chollima-1, Malligyong-1, intercontinental ballistic missile, Pyongyang, Military ballistic capabilities, Sohae Satellite Launch Station, long-range drones, Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, 9dashline

The Chinese dragon may spout fire but is not ten feet tall yet

Written by Joe Varner

A strong US industrial base with sufficient munitions stockpiles and weapons systems is critical for deterring Beijing in war.

Russia’s self-inflicted annus horribilis

Written by Joe Varner

The strategic importance of the Russian Pacific Fleet has never been greater to Moscow than it is now as the key means to engage and support Chinese foreign policy objectives in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

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The RS-28 Sarmat: Russia’s Satan II

Written by Joe Varner

When asking whether it is a deterrence game-changer in the short and long run, the answer is likely no. To counter the Sarmat, Washington can move more and more of its vulnerable land-based deterrent to the US sea-based portion of the triad and onto submarines.

2022: Russia the other Pacific power

Even if Russia does not play a key role in the competition between the major powers of the Indo-Pacific right now, the country could become an indispensable partner in the future geopolitical constellations in this most significant geographical area.

Russia's anti-satellite weapons test: A strategic flash in the pan

Written by Joe Varner

Needless to say not only does China want to protect its proxy against India but also bristles at any event that strategically places India on an equal footing with Beijing as it fights its psychological war for the hearts and minds of Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Pacific9DLDecember 7, 2021ASAT, A-SAT, International Space Station, Hybrid Warfare, 9DASHLINE, Joe Varner, Nato, US, United States, China, Russia, India, European Union, EU, Europe, United Nations, Indo-Pacific, Pakistan, Cold War, Sputnik, Bold Orion, Grey Zone, ASM-135, Moscow, Reagan, MRBM, Alaska, Hawaii, SM-3, Missiles, Japan, CubeSats, Boeing, X-37B, EMP, Electro-Magnetic Pulse, Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, Space, Central Europe, Ukraine

Indigenous deterrence capabilities and inter-Korean relations

Written by Elisabeth Suh

The upcoming presidential elections in March 2022 will set Seoul’s tone for the next five years. Which scenario is more likely to unfold in the medium-term, however, depends also on North Korea and the broader geopolitical setting.

East Asia9DLNovember 24, 20219DASHLINE, ELISABETH SUH, North Korea, Pyongyang, South Korea, Korean War, Demilitarized Zone, DMZ, 38th parallel, Seoul, Korean Peninsula, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Plutonium, Tritium, Yongbyon, Kim Jong-un, Joe Varner, submarines, F-35, Hyunmoo, China, Russia, US, United States, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Beijing

China’s new ‘space vehicle’

Written by Joe Varner

This is more about an aggressive hegemonic China's conventional warfighting capabilities and ensuring they have free reign in the Western Pacific against states like Taiwan without facing the prospect of nuclear war.

Heating up: An arms race on the Korean Peninsula

Written by Joe Varner

North Korea, on the other hand, has in the last month made clear it is going nowhere. It is bound and determined to hold Washington’s feet to the fire, holding its bases in the region, US cities and their populations hostage now and for the foreseeable future.