Written by Takuma Matsu and Dr. Paweł Behrendt

The Indo-Pacific is unlikely to follow Europe’s institutional trajectory. Rather than shifting toward a NATO analogue, it is developing a layered security architecture built on bilateral alliances and functional minilateral arrangements.

This week, we speak with Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Founder of 112Watch and Professor at Kyoto University, about Thailand’s lèse-majesté law (Article 112), political repression in Thailand and Southeast Asia, defending civic space, and the future of the movement against Article 112.

Written by Hunter Slingbaum

South Korea may have resisted Trump’s calls to extend military support to Iran, but new demands will come, and its leaders must remain clear-eyed as they chart a path to defensive independence. The country faces a choice: stretch the bounds of its own national interest to maintain its model ally status, or set firm red lines with its capricious security guarantor.

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This month’s brief examines the resurgence of political mobilisation in India, where youth-led protests have evolved into a broader challenge to the Modi government’s legitimacy, exposing the limits of coercion and the erosion of public consent. Alongside this, our regional review explores an Indo-Pacific caught between mounting domestic discontent and intensifying external pressures, as geopolitical rivalry, economic insecurity, and climate shocks test governments’ resilience and capacity for cooperation.

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Written by Gabrielle Sorensen

The gap between what China produces and what its households can buy will not close on its own. Managing a problem is not the same as fixing it, and deferring structural reform means the costs of that deferral accumulate.

Written by David Matijasevich

Canadian foreign policy under Prime Minister Mark Carney has turned away from its long-held liberal internationalist position, and realism appears to be trumping values. Recent interviews with Singaporean civil society activists examine the ways in which Canadian engagement would be appreciated by those engaged in local democratic and rights-oriented struggles.

In this episode, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian are joined by Dr Louise Marie Hurel, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute to discuss how Europe and ASEAN can best navigate an increasingly complex AI landscape.

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Written by Vignesh Rajahmani

The movement’s success is no longer measured by Pradhan’s resignation. What counts now is the institutional response the movement can compel: an independent NEET investigation, a reform timetable, procedural safeguards, and legal defence for those beaten and detained in July.

Written by Satoshi Ota

If the Indo-Japanese partnership is to fully reflect the principles associated with a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, development efforts should extend beyond strategic and economic considerations to encompass meaningful engagement with the historically marginalised communities of Northeast India.

Written by Grace Corcoran and Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy

Maritime security presents a high-impact avenue for coordination. Bangladesh possesses one of the most capable armed forces in the region and is the second-largest recipient of Chinese military equipment worldwide.

Written by Edwin Akpotu

While diplomacy can reduce immediate risks, longer-term change depends on progress on Kashmir, reductions in cross-border violence, and stronger political support for engagement in both countries. This helps explain why periods of calm have repeatedly proven fragile despite considerable diplomatic effort. 

Written by Anuttama Banerji and Dr. Sahar Khan

A central weakness in the partnership is the absence of shared operational experience. Unlike US treaty allies, India has not participated in high-intensity contingencies alongside US forces. This limits trust, slows decision-making, and increases the risk of misalignment.

Written by Chiara Boldrini

At the international level, India’s carefully cultivated claim to speak on behalf of the Global South is being progressively undermined by its repeated failure to engage substantively with crises that bear directly on the normative principles it has historically espoused.

Written by Adhiraaj Anand

Deeper and more sustained transnational exchanges could foster new regional identities and solidarities between national protest movements, as well as increase their resilience and capacity for innovation.

Written by Taufiq E. Faruque and Rubiat Saimum

Bangladesh no longer intends to operate as a peripheral state within an India-centric security order in South Asia, but as a globally connected security actor seeking to maximise strategic autonomy over its procurement choices, maritime posture, and regional role.

Written by Hunter Slingbaum

South Korea may have resisted Trump’s calls to extend military support to Iran, but new demands will come, and its leaders must remain clear-eyed as they chart a path to defensive independence. The country faces a choice: stretch the bounds of its own national interest to maintain its model ally status, or set firm red lines with its capricious security guarantor.

Written by Gabrielle Sorensen

The gap between what China produces and what its households can buy will not close on its own. Managing a problem is not the same as fixing it, and deferring structural reform means the costs of that deferral accumulate.

Written by Leonardo Morreale

Putin's August 2026 visit to the disputed Kuril Islands, combined with Russia's fortification of the chain and its growing military coordination with China, signals a defensive freeze rather than a springboard for attack. As Japan reorients southwards, the north remains a second front that will not close, a standing cost even if the shot is never fired.

Written by William Ford

If the Takaichi administration makes the difficult decision to lower rice tariffs or expand import quotas, it could bring down rice prices for Japanese consumers while also strengthening Japan’s partnerships with Southeast Asian rice exporters.  

Written by Leonardo Morreale

In a first clash, both China and Japan would be learning the most expensive lessons in real time, and the side that adapts faster, not the side with more hulls, would likely prevail.

Written by Percy Yixuanchen Yu

The lesson for Taiwan is uncomfortable but necessary. The AI shield is not a shield unless it is supported by social resilience, Taiwan's own diplomatic voice, and democratically authorised security policy. 

Written by Hans Horan

While such dialogue should not be entered into naively, persistent and earnest engagement would allow Washington to proceed cautiously and slowly transform its relationship with the regime in a sustainable fashion that benefits both parties.

Written by Peter Chai

If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreigners” in isolation without historical context or comparisons with overall crime trends and across subgroups, they risk creating an unbalanced narrative and fuelling concerns about xenophobia.

Written by Herman S. Taylor

The dispute with the Philippines was temporarily set aside rather than settled, leaving room for neutrality. Then Beijing brought the same coercive reflex to Manila that it used everywhere. The failure was not China’s refusal to yield its claims, but its inability to adopt softer tactics.

Written by Hunter Marston

The recent Russia-ASEAN Summit is only the latest example of a more diffuse and loosely organised world order, in which Washington plays a less central role, and its rivals are calling the shots. While this emerging multipolar order is currently fuelling regional anxieties of instability and conflict in Southeast Asia, it is likely to be the new normal. 

Written by Athena Charanne Presto and Maria Tanyag

The Philippines has had real regional influence on gender equality, supported by a long lineage of female diplomats, policymakers, and civil society leaders who have helped shape ASEAN’s gender equality architecture since its early years.

Written by Linn Thit Htoo

A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China. 

Written by Muhammad Izzuddin Al Haq

If other middle powers in the Indo-Pacific follow Jakarta’s stance in resisting formal alignment, the region may become one where multilateral cooperation works in peacetime but falls short in crises, including grey zone escalation.

Written by Apipol Sae-Tung 

The regime’s institutional architecture is designed for continuity, but the energy crisis has introduced a level of volatility that requires a more agile and transparent response than the regime’s patronage-driven conservative roots traditionally allow.

Written by Chandarith Neak and Chhay Lim

Cambodia’s partners would do well to start seeing it for what it is: a small state with its own interests, its own history, and no good options — only hard choices.

Written by Hunter Marston

The root of Myanmar’s crisis is political: as long as the military holds power, the country will be at war, and the economy will underperform.

Written by Jonathan Berkshire Miller

For the first time in years, Ottawa is treating the Indo-Pacific not as a region of opportunities to sample but as a theatre in which it must choose where to invest. 

Written by Chris Estep

Trump should decisively establish his administration’s approach to competition with China by issuing his own Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document and endorsing it in a televised speech from the Oval Office.

Written by Dongkeun Lee

For South Korea, the persistent threat from North Korea remains a priority, making it reluctant to allocate resources to security concerns beyond the peninsula. Australia can bolster Seoul’s confidence by reaffirming its commitment to peninsular security.

Written by Lucas Myers

The Quad’s role is clearer in 2024 than in 2017 or 2007. It coordinates and ensures the provision of public goods in an era of great power competition that is about much more than just traditional hard power security.

Written by Dr Lucas Knotter

NZ’s supposedly ‘new’ foreign policy is thus neither truly independent, nor truly realist, nor prompted to safeguard Aotearoa’s public interest.

Written by Drake Long

While the ISA Council could not agree on regulations, it did agree that it would from now on have oversight over the seabed mining application process instead of the ISA’s exclusive Legal and Technical Commission.

Written by Dr Tess Newton Cain

Prime Minister Manele is a career diplomat and is not given to the theatrical rhetoric we saw previously from his predecessor. He is a known quantity in the region and further afield in Canberra, Wellington, Beijing, and Washington.

Written by Jonathan Dorsey

China is not just bullying its SCS neighbours but is also targeting those perceived to impede its regional dominance, with the United States Navy (USN), Japan Self-Defense Force, and even Canada having been subjected to risky encounters.

Written by Takuma Matsu and Dr. Paweł Behrendt

The Indo-Pacific is unlikely to follow Europe’s institutional trajectory. Rather than shifting toward a NATO analogue, it is developing a layered security architecture built on bilateral alliances and functional minilateral arrangements.

Written by Sapna Suresh

Should a future RN government end up pushing for protectionist policies, New Delhi should work towards diversifying its economic partnerships across other EU member states.

Written by Eve Register

The protection of human rights has long been a founding principle of the EU. While the GSP+ programme represents an opportunity to advance this goal, human rights will remain subordinated to other priorities as long as the Commission leverages the programme to extract strategic advantage.

Written by Marie Hiliquin

Europe, facing a myriad of diplomatic and economic pressures from China and lacking a unified centre, is increasingly engaging in self-containment on China policy — exemplified by Germany and the Czech Republic denying transit to Taiwan's president in April 2026.

Written by Sapna Suresh

Going forward, the success of India-EU defence cooperation hinges on whether Paris and Berlin can set aside their differences and prioritise the broader strategic picture of ensuring European strategic autonomy.

Written by Kristofers Krumins

In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure.

Written by Thijs Stegeman

Europe must communicate clear thresholds and move forward with its own integrated drone defence, or risk allowing Russia’s grey-zone drone activity to become the new normal.

Written by Jia Yin Chen and Luc van de Goor

Crucially, countering cognitive warfare is not just about timely dissemination of factual counter-narratives. It must also build each citizen’s defences against disinformation — making them more skeptical of the information they receive and willing to actively verify it or debunk it.

Written by Omkar Bhole

Nepal’s 2026 elections have not fundamentally altered the structural realities of its foreign policy, but they have introduced Gen Z as a new political actor that could reshape how external influence is exercised.

Written by Vanly Seng

Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold on power.

Written by Amit Ranjan

Many Nepalese are frustrated and disenchanted with the current political situation and poor government performance. But returning to a constitutional monarchy would be a regressive, authoritarian step, not a path toward democracy.

Written by Dr Wongi Choe

A more fundamental security challenge may emerge from the Trump administration’s evolving defence posture, which could reorient US global military priorities, including troop deployments in South Korea, to better deter China. 

Written by Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan

Bangladesh’s historical pro-India stance under Hasina is likely to diminish under the new interim administration due to Touhid’s critical views on India over issues like alleged border killings and the need to balance geopolitical partners.

Written by Aniello Iannone

The persistent influence of the military and entrenched oligarchies continues to subvert the will of the electorate, creating a hybrid political system where democratic processes are overshadowed by authoritarian interventions.

Written by Dr Neil DeVotta

Ultimately, given the dire economic and debt situation facing the island, the victorious candidate and his party will have little choice but to balance relations with major powers like India, China, and the United States.

Written by Fang-Yu Chen and Ya-Han Chen

In short, this reform makes the LY a super-powerful institution that raises concerns about undermining the separation of power and thus checks and “imbalances”.

Written by David Matijasevich

Canadian foreign policy under Prime Minister Mark Carney has turned away from its long-held liberal internationalist position, and realism appears to be trumping values. Recent interviews with Singaporean civil society activists examine the ways in which Canadian engagement would be appreciated by those engaged in local democratic and rights-oriented struggles.

Written by Luana Correia

While the impacts on the region are imminent and unavoidable, they can be minimised through adequate adaptation and mitigation efforts. This requires wealthier, more capable actors to strengthen their multilateral climate finance commitments and provide impacted nations such as Nepal with strong reconstruction and recovery support. 

Written by Arijit Mazumdar

Giving diasporas a working system, proper funding, and, in Vietnam’s case, an actual address turns a sentimental tie into a resource a government can use, whether the goal is investment, skilled return migration, or simply a more organised constituency willing to speak well of home.

Written by Ambika Vishwanath and Priyanka Bhide

The growing number and diversity of disasters in the Indo-Pacific region call for a more methodical approach between countries that share borders.

Written by Jason Togut

The history of silver has not come full circle, but it has begun to rhyme. Ming China pulled silver across the Pacific because its fiscal system created enormous monetary demand. Modern China pulls silver into factories because its industrial system creates enormous technological demand.

Written by Jing Ge

China’s controls are changing Japan’s political calculus: dependence on Chinese supply is no longer just a commercial risk but an economic-security vulnerability.

Written by You-Hao Lai and Ren-Wei Chang

Multinational cloud providers should be included to show that their Taiwan-based nodes can function when cut off from the overseas systems that normally control them. This requirement should be built into government procurement and critical infrastructure audits.

Written by Adhiraaj Anand

Deeper and more sustained transnational exchanges could foster new regional identities and solidarities between national protest movements, as well as increase their resilience and capacity for innovation.