Written by Dr Anisa Heritage

While a consolidation strategy offers a sensible course correction, deterrence in the Indo-Pacific depends as much on regional confidence in long-term political commitments as it does on military capability.

As the US marks its 250th anniversary, we invite several key experts to analyse how a changing US foreign policy and regional minilateralism are reshaping Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

This month’s brief examines Taiwan–Lithuania relations, where shared experiences of external pressure have driven closer political and tech cooperation. Five years on from Vilnius hosting Taiwan’s Representative Office, the relationship remains strongest politically, while delivering more limited economic outcomes — highlighting the challenge of turning strategic alignment into tangible shared success. Alongside this, our regional review explores an Indo-Pacific defined by fragmentation and adaptation.

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In this episode, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian are joined by Dr. Huong Le Thu of the International Crisis Group for a timely discussion on how Southeast Asia is responding to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Together, they explore how the crisis is being interpreted across the region, from differing diplomatic positions and domestic political pressures to the growing impact of energy shocks and disruptions to global shipping routes.

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Written by Liselotte Odgaard

As US strategy increasingly prioritises the Indo-Pacific while delegating greater responsibility to allies, NATO-IP4 cooperation is likely to deepen selectively — focusing on functional areas such as technology, maritime security, and resilience — rather than evolving into a fully institutionalised global alliance framework.

Written by Jing Ge

Taiwan’s undersea cables are not only a communications vulnerability; they are also a test of crisis discipline in the Indo-Pacific. In a Taiwan Strait crisis, a severed cable could be read as an accident, a coercive signal, or the opening move in a larger confrontation.

Written by Eve Register

The protection of human rights has long been a founding principle of the EU. While the GSP+ programme represents an opportunity to advance this goal, human rights will remain subordinated to other priorities as long as the Commission leverages the programme to extract strategic advantage.

Written by Athena Charanne Presto and Maria Tanyag

The Philippines has had real regional influence on gender equality, supported by a long lineage of female diplomats, policymakers, and civil society leaders who have helped shape ASEAN’s gender equality architecture since its early years.

Written by Anuttama Banerji and Dr. Sahar Khan

A central weakness in the partnership is the absence of shared operational experience. Unlike US treaty allies, India has not participated in high-intensity contingencies alongside US forces. This limits trust, slows decision-making, and increases the risk of misalignment.

Written by Chiara Boldrini

At the international level, India’s carefully cultivated claim to speak on behalf of the Global South is being progressively undermined by its repeated failure to engage substantively with crises that bear directly on the normative principles it has historically espoused.

Written by Adhiraaj Anand

Deeper and more sustained transnational exchanges could foster new regional identities and solidarities between national protest movements, as well as increase their resilience and capacity for innovation.

Written by Taufiq E. Faruque and Rubiat Saimum

Bangladesh no longer intends to operate as a peripheral state within an India-centric security order in South Asia, but as a globally connected security actor seeking to maximise strategic autonomy over its procurement choices, maritime posture, and regional role.

Written by Stefania Benaglia

If the EU and India choose realism over rhetoric and build trust not only between governments but also among businesses, innovators, and people, the 2026 Summit could mark a genuine turning point — one where strategic clarity finally replaces political symbolism.

Written by Dr Imran Khurshid

In the end, this agreement is less a stabilising alliance than a strategic gamble — one that risks drawing Pakistan into conflicts beyond its capacity, while further complicating the already turbulent geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Middle East.

Written by Farwa Aamer

India’s position as a global leader on climate adaptation and sustainable development, especially as the voice of the global south, could be undermined by any perception of using water coercively.

Written by Marcus Andreopoulos

While dealing with the military-backed government may assist Trump in reaching short-term agreements, constant disorder and popular uprisings will make it impossible for the benefits of such agreements to ever be felt.

Written by Percy Yixuanchen Yu

The lesson for Taiwan is uncomfortable but necessary. The AI shield is not a shield unless it is supported by social resilience, Taiwan's own diplomatic voice, and democratically authorised security policy. 

Written by Hans Horan

While such dialogue should not be entered into naively, persistent and earnest engagement would allow Washington to proceed cautiously and slowly transform its relationship with the regime in a sustainable fashion that benefits both parties.

Written by Peter Chai

If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreigners” in isolation without historical context or comparisons with overall crime trends and across subgroups, they risk creating an unbalanced narrative and fuelling concerns about xenophobia.

Written by Daniel McIntyre

The immediate results of her trip may yield modest concessions, perhaps on tourism or the lifting of restrictions on Taiwanese imports. But without a sustained reduction in military pressure and an end to large-scale exercises, these would be quickly eclipsed.

Written by Viktor Buzna

Just as steel, petrochemicals, and semiconductors once underpinned national resilience, computing power and AI ecosystems define economic and strategic autonomy today.

Written by Seungwan Kim and Jun Sun Yoo

Washington increasingly expects allies not only to share regional defence burdens but also to expand industrial capacity, co-invest in critical technologies, and assume greater responsibility for deterring China. An East Asian AUKUS framework could align with these expectations by signalling Seoul’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security while adding industrial and operational depth to alliance deterrence.

Written by Federica Cidale

While she broke a significant glass ceiling, her policy positions, from historical revisionism and expanded national security powers to restrictive immigration policies, reinforce existing conservative structures.

Written by Shin Kawashima

Japan and other US allies must strengthen ties with Southeast Asian countries to address US retrenchment, positioning themselves as credible alternatives for countries seeking to avoid over-reliance on China.

Written by Athena Charanne Presto and Maria Tanyag

The Philippines has had real regional influence on gender equality, supported by a long lineage of female diplomats, policymakers, and civil society leaders who have helped shape ASEAN’s gender equality architecture since its early years.

Written by Linn Thit Htoo

A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China. 

Written by Muhammad Izzuddin Al Haq

If other middle powers in the Indo-Pacific follow Jakarta’s stance in resisting formal alignment, the region may become one where multilateral cooperation works in peacetime but falls short in crises, including grey zone escalation.

Written by Apipol Sae-Tung 

The regime’s institutional architecture is designed for continuity, but the energy crisis has introduced a level of volatility that requires a more agile and transparent response than the regime’s patronage-driven conservative roots traditionally allow.

Written by Chandarith Neak and Chhay Lim

Cambodia’s partners would do well to start seeing it for what it is: a small state with its own interests, its own history, and no good options — only hard choices.

Written by Hunter Marston

The root of Myanmar’s crisis is political: as long as the military holds power, the country will be at war, and the economy will underperform.

Written by Dr. Aniello Iannone

Ultimately, the COC’s relevance will depend on whether it can institutionalise guardrails that shape incentives at sea, reduce the frequency and severity of grey-zone encounters, and make de-escalation after incidents more predictable.

Written by William J. Jones and Dr Thanachate Wisaijorn

Ultimately, the current trajectory presents two distinct interpretations: it may be viewed cynically as a method to advance corporate and elite interests by using cheap nationalism, or pragmatically as a necessary step to access valuable economic resources blocked by territorial disputes.

Written by Jonathan Berkshire Miller

For the first time in years, Ottawa is treating the Indo-Pacific not as a region of opportunities to sample but as a theatre in which it must choose where to invest. 

Written by Chris Estep

Trump should decisively establish his administration’s approach to competition with China by issuing his own Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document and endorsing it in a televised speech from the Oval Office.

Written by Dongkeun Lee

For South Korea, the persistent threat from North Korea remains a priority, making it reluctant to allocate resources to security concerns beyond the peninsula. Australia can bolster Seoul’s confidence by reaffirming its commitment to peninsular security.

Written by Lucas Myers

The Quad’s role is clearer in 2024 than in 2017 or 2007. It coordinates and ensures the provision of public goods in an era of great power competition that is about much more than just traditional hard power security.

Written by Dr Lucas Knotter

NZ’s supposedly ‘new’ foreign policy is thus neither truly independent, nor truly realist, nor prompted to safeguard Aotearoa’s public interest.

Written by Drake Long

While the ISA Council could not agree on regulations, it did agree that it would from now on have oversight over the seabed mining application process instead of the ISA’s exclusive Legal and Technical Commission.

Written by Dr Tess Newton Cain

Prime Minister Manele is a career diplomat and is not given to the theatrical rhetoric we saw previously from his predecessor. He is a known quantity in the region and further afield in Canberra, Wellington, Beijing, and Washington.

Written by Jonathan Dorsey

China is not just bullying its SCS neighbours but is also targeting those perceived to impede its regional dominance, with the United States Navy (USN), Japan Self-Defense Force, and even Canada having been subjected to risky encounters.

Written by Eve Register

The protection of human rights has long been a founding principle of the EU. While the GSP+ programme represents an opportunity to advance this goal, human rights will remain subordinated to other priorities as long as the Commission leverages the programme to extract strategic advantage.

Written by Sapna Suresh

Going forward, the success of India-EU defence cooperation hinges on whether Paris and Berlin can set aside their differences and prioritise the broader strategic picture of ensuring European strategic autonomy.

Written by Kristofers Krumins

In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure.

Written by Thijs Stegeman

Europe must communicate clear thresholds and move forward with its own integrated drone defence, or risk allowing Russia’s grey-zone drone activity to become the new normal.

Written by Jia Yin Chen and Luc van de Goor

Crucially, countering cognitive warfare is not just about timely dissemination of factual counter-narratives. It must also build each citizen’s defences against disinformation — making them more skeptical of the information they receive and willing to actively verify it or debunk it.

Written by Stefania Benaglia

If the EU and India choose realism over rhetoric and build trust not only between governments but also among businesses, innovators, and people, the 2026 Summit could mark a genuine turning point — one where strategic clarity finally replaces political symbolism.

Written by Emanuele Ballestracci 

Italy cannot rival the hard-power presence of France or the UK, nor does it aspire to. Instead, it has constructed a pathway based on economic cooperation, private-sector activism, and steady institutional ties, which over time create the trust needed to expand into political and security spheres.

Written by Angelo M’BA

Perhaps counter-intuitively, only an approach less concerned with morals and more with pragmatic engagement can pave the way for the EU to spread its values in the Indo-Pacific. 

Written by Omkar Bhole

Nepal’s 2026 elections have not fundamentally altered the structural realities of its foreign policy, but they have introduced Gen Z as a new political actor that could reshape how external influence is exercised.

Written by Vanly Seng

Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold on power.

Written by Amit Ranjan

Many Nepalese are frustrated and disenchanted with the current political situation and poor government performance. But returning to a constitutional monarchy would be a regressive, authoritarian step, not a path toward democracy.

Written by Dr Wongi Choe

A more fundamental security challenge may emerge from the Trump administration’s evolving defence posture, which could reorient US global military priorities, including troop deployments in South Korea, to better deter China. 

Written by Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan

Bangladesh’s historical pro-India stance under Hasina is likely to diminish under the new interim administration due to Touhid’s critical views on India over issues like alleged border killings and the need to balance geopolitical partners.

Written by Aniello Iannone

The persistent influence of the military and entrenched oligarchies continues to subvert the will of the electorate, creating a hybrid political system where democratic processes are overshadowed by authoritarian interventions.

Written by Dr Neil DeVotta

Ultimately, given the dire economic and debt situation facing the island, the victorious candidate and his party will have little choice but to balance relations with major powers like India, China, and the United States.

Written by Fang-Yu Chen and Ya-Han Chen

In short, this reform makes the LY a super-powerful institution that raises concerns about undermining the separation of power and thus checks and “imbalances”.

Written by Adhiraaj Anand

Deeper and more sustained transnational exchanges could foster new regional identities and solidarities between national protest movements, as well as increase their resilience and capacity for innovation.

Written by Jia Yin Chen and Luc van de Goor

Crucially, countering cognitive warfare is not just about timely dissemination of factual counter-narratives. It must also build each citizen’s defences against disinformation — making them more skeptical of the information they receive and willing to actively verify it or debunk it.

Written by Faye Simanjuntak

Malaysia’s National AI Roadmap reveals tension between its stated ambitions and the industrial reality taking shape. Although Malaysia has courted notable investments into AI datacentres, there is limited focus on cultivating the upstream capabilities that Malaysia identifies as central to its long-term competitiveness.

Written by Thu Nguyen Hoang Anh

Based on estimates from the Vietnam National Plastics Action Partnership, if the country’s current systems are not improved, the volume of plastics in its waterways could double by 2030.

Written by James Bowen

The risk posed by Trump’s new strategy will be most pronounced abroad, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Home to the world’s most rapidly developing and energy-hungry economies, it also hosts many fossil fuels and/or prospective clean energy producers whose future trajectories remain open to external influence.

Written by Mansoor Sadat

Options for returnees are limited. Faced with a repressive regime in Afghanistan, many risk fleeing once again, potentially taking dangerous, illegal routes to other countries in search of safety.

Written by Sarah Godek

By increasing relations at a slower pace, China’s government makes a safer long-term bet on Afghanistan that forgoes short-run gains to ensure greater security that could protect longer-term benefits in the future.

Written by Dr Narayani Sritharan and Peter Rizkillah

Sinophobia in Indonesia is not merely a by-product of the BRI but a consequence of economic ambition intersecting with security concerns in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.