All change in Solomon Islands? Elections, a new prime minister, what comes next?
All change in Solomon Islands? Elections, a new Prime Minister, what comes next?
WRITTEN BY DR TESS NEWTON CAIN
10 June 2024
The recent joint elections in Solomon Islands (held in April) were conducted in a peaceful and orderly manner. It was quite the logistical exercise with provincial elections being conducted at the same time as the population was voting for the 50 members of the next parliament. The voters of Solomon Islands had waited longer than is normal to vote for their MPs. The electoral cycle had them going to the polls in 2023. However, the government had pushed through a constitutional amendment to allow for them to be deferred, not without some controversy at the time. The reason? Then Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare argued that it was too much, for the authorities to hold elections and host the Pacific Games in the same year. Now that a new government has been installed we can see that there will be a strong element of consistency with the previous one. However, the personal approach of the new Prime Minister, Jeremiah Manele is likely to differ from that of his predecessor.
The wait does not seem to have dimmed the enthusiasm of the people of Solomon Islands to be part of the process, with photos of campaign activities flooding social media and a high turnout of voters. There were 334 candidates contesting the 50 available seats. In a departure in the context of Solomon Islands, the majority (219) ran as members of political parties, while the remainder (115) stood as Independents, whereas previously political parties have not been prominent in the context of elections in the Solomon Islands. Added to this were around 400 international observers, from the Pacific, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere. The voting and counting progressed smoothly and there were no reports of violence. This, in part, reflects a heavy security presence with the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force supported by colleagues from Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea. As well as assisting with logistical support, security personnel were on hand to assist if needed with any unrest or violence that may have arisen.
The results
As to the results: thirteen parties were running in the elections and several of them won enough seats to give them a credible role to play in the ensuing negotiations to form government. The Ownership Unity Responsibility (OUR) party was the most successful, securing 15 of the available 50 seats. Other parties were less successful with the Democratic Party winning 11 seats, the United Party claiming six seats, and the People First Party securing three seats. Behind them were several micro-parties that secured one seat each and 11 Independents.
Prime Minister Manele is a career diplomat and is not given to the theatrical rhetoric we saw previously from his predecessor. He is a known quantity in the region and further afield in Canberra, Wellington, Beijing, and Washington.
As the results came in, the scene was set for a fascinating period of negotiation to determine who would form the next government. Previously, we have seen this part of the process take up to six weeks. This is not new; it is very much ‘business as usual’ when it comes to Solomon Islands politics. As before, we saw rival groups establish ‘camp’ in hotels in Honiara and then set about bringing in smaller parties and Independents to get to the magic number of 26, enough to form a government. Whilst the Ownership Unity Responsibility (OUR) party secured the largest number of seats with fifteen it was never really in contemplation that negotiations would end up with anything other than another coalition government. The micro-parties and Independents were set to play a significant part in the final makeup of the government. Given that there is little to divide parties and Independents when it comes to issues of policy, these negotiations turn on the strength of political connections and horse-trading around the prime ministership and other key ministerial positions.
Ahead of the deadline for nominations for prime minister, there were two surprising developments. The first was that Manasseh Sogavare announced that he would not seek the nomination and instead, the OUR-led coalition nominated former Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele. Sogavare explained that this was a long-envisaged transition. That may well be part of the answer, but it is also likely that this was the price of garnering the support of smaller parties and Independents to boost coalition numbers. Then the opposing Democratic Party-led group announced that Mathew Wale (former Leader of the Opposition) would be their nominee for prime minister. This came as something of a surprise as it was widely anticipated that the rival group would nominate Peter Kenilorea Jr for the top job.
The elections for prime minister were held at the National Parliament on 2 May. Jeremiah Manele was declared prime minister by the governor general having secured 31 votes to 18. Given past experiences at this juncture, including outbreaks of violence, security was tight in Honiara that day with many businesses electing to remain closed. Prime Minister Manele was at pains to comment favourably on the fact that there had been no unrest or violence.
Manele has now announced his ministerial line-up. The announcement came in two parts which likely reflects further negotiations as to how portfolios should best be distributed among the coalition partners. The main group within the coalition is the OUR party, which was the key player in the previous government. The allocation of ministries as between coalition partners is largely about maintaining solidarity, rather than policy focus. A key question was which ministry would go to Sogavare. By 6 May, the question was answered with the announcement that he would take on the role of finance minister. To some extent, the title he has is not important. The reality is that he is politically and personally close to Manele and is expected to play an important role in guiding the new government’s policy and practice.
What next?
Before the election of the prime minister, the newly-named Government of National Unity and Transformation (GNUT) had developed a 100-day plan and Manele has already given some indication of what to expect — and what not.
Unsurprisingly, the new prime minister has made it clear that domestic policy is very much at the top of his list. He has zeroed in on some key areas that voters have made clear are their priorities. They include increased investments in health services and infrastructure and focus on productive sectors to improve economic prospects for individuals, families, and communities.
When it comes to foreign policy, Manele has promised continuity, which should not come as a surprise to anyone. There is little reason to think that the geopolitical tempo will slow in the near term providing leaders such as Manele plenty of opportunity to work with a range of partners to achieve policy objectives. Even before he became prime minister, he stated clearly that Solomon Islands would continue to pursue a position of being “friends to all and enemies to none”. He has confirmed that China is and will remain a significant partner for his government. Again, this is not surprising given the critical need for major infrastructure in Solomon Islands. He has also been quick to reiterate that his government values other partners such as Australia, New Zealand, and the US.
Whilst the substance of Solomon Islands’ foreign policy may not change much under Manele’s leadership, future diplomatic engagement with Australia and other ‘like-minded’ partners will likely be less fiery in nature. Prime Minister Manele is a career diplomat and is not given to the theatrical rhetoric we saw previously from his predecessor. He is a known quantity in the region and further afield in Canberra, Wellington, Beijing, and Washington.
As the tenure of the twelfth Parliament of Solomon Islands gets underway, there will be much to examine and consider.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Dr Tess Newton Cain is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and Vanuatu. She has more than 25 years of experience working across the Pacific islands region, with much of that time spent living in Vanuatu. She is a highly regarded commentator and analyst on issues of politics, policy, and development in Pacific island countries. Image credit: Office of the President, Republic of China(Taiwan).