Pacific — 9DASHLINE

Wildcatting the Pacific: Seabed mining and the Pacific islands

Written by Drake Long

While the ISA Council could not agree on regulations, it did agree that it would from now on have oversight over the seabed mining application process instead of the ISA’s exclusive Legal and Technical Commission.

A purported pact: China’s quest for security foothold in Papua New Guinea

Written by Thierry Lepani

As much is yet to be seen with the Australian and US pacts, a potential pact with China should cater to PNG’s problems, rather than solely serving as a solution to China’s strategic positioning in the Pacific.

Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling

Written by Varenya Singh and Chetan Rana

China's persistent rejection of the tribunal's jurisdiction and ruling, along with its continuous assertion of sovereignty, underscores the limitations of international legal mechanisms in addressing deep-rooted geopolitical disputes.

Pacific, Power Politics9DLMarch 11, 20249DASHLINE, Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling, Chetan Rana, Varenya Singh, South China Sea, Cold War, Europe, West Asia, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Philippines, South China Sea (SCS), SCS, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, map, standard map, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), littoral states, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines Coast Guard, Sierra Madre, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly Islands, Filipino, grey-zone activities, non-military vessels, territorial claims, maritime militia, Beijing, Manila, vessels, maritime territorial disputes, arbitral proceedings, arbitration, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), PCA, PCA award of 2016, PCA ruling, China’s nine-dash line, nine-dash line, Annex VII, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, sovereignty, delimitation, artificially built islands, delimitation of state boundaries, Article 9, unilateral, fishermen, marine resources, fishing, 12 nautical mile, extractive, purely extractive activity, self-dependent economic activity, maritime fishing zones, coral reefs, turtle, clam, international law, dispute, ASEAN, Code of Conduct (CoC), COC, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., non-claimant states, Australia, Japan, United States, us, USA, militarising, military exercises, sea lanes, environmental crisis, securitisation, marine diversity, sustainability, realpolitik, Israel-Hamas conflict

In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?

We invite several experts to assess the prospects for stability in 2024.

Editor's Picks, Pacific9DLFebruary 2, 2024In Forum: 2024 — South China Sea at a crossroads, 9DASHLINE, south china sea, SCS, China, Philippine, Philippine navy, The Philippines, vessels, Chinese vessels, freedom of navigation, United States, trade, shipping, US-China competition, escalation, CYBER, ELINA NOOR, non-claimant states, Code of Conduct (CoC), Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations, military, international law, cross-domain, ASEAN, norms of responsible state behaviour, 2015 United Nations Group of Governmental Experts of Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, APILA SANGTAM, Beijing, Vietnam, India, Manila, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), UNCLOS, 2016 Arbitral Award, comprehensive strategic partnership, 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, grey zone, Exclusive Economic Zones, Indonesia, Malaysia, NONG HONG, geopolitical rivalry, naval, military exercises, oil and gas exploitation, COLLIN KOH, unilateral, multilateral, littorals, Second Thomas Shoal, Taiwan, PRATNASHREE BASU, Belt and Road Initiative, strategic autonomy, de-escalation, containment, Japan, rules-based order, UN, United Nations, In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

NZ: Maori foreign policy to manage increasingly challenging relationship with China

Written by Bonnie Holster and Nicholas Ross Smith

Beyond the changing language of New Zealand’s strategic communications, its experimentation with a kaupapa Maori foreign policy has the potential to be transformative.

Movement on climate mobilities: developments from the Pacific Islands Forum

Written by Liam Moore

While alarmist reports of massive numbers of people potentially fleeing across borders because of climate change are incorrect and misunderstand the dynamics of migration, mobility — both within and between states — is a reality in the Pacific.

Pacific9DLNovember 29, 20239dashline, Movement on climate mobilities: Developments from the Pacific Islands Forum, Liam Moore, climate mobility, climate mobilities, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Pacific Island Forum, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility, Falepili Union treaty, Australia, Tuvalu, Pacific, COP28, Forum Dialogue Partners, Forum Communique, Implementation Plan for the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, climate change, climate disasters, human mobility, relocation migration, displacement, Declaration on the Establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility, Paris Agreement, fossil fuel, climate finance, decarbonisation, Jane McAdam, migration, Fiji, Pacific states, the Solomon Islands, cross-border mobility, asylum protections, climate refugees, migration pathways, alternative migration pathways, working visas, visa category, Chinese influence, sovereignty, state agency, Kausea Natano, Seve Paeniu, New Zealand, climate policy, US, residency, labour mobility schemes, labour mobility, bilateral agreements, Tuvalu-Australia agreement, migration agreements, security conditions, climate migrant, climate refugee, mobility options

Strategic competition in the South Pacific and its implications for New Zealand

Written by Dr Reuben Steff

While China’s activities are concerning, it should be made clear to Beijing that NZ’s and others’ responses in the security sphere are dependent on China’s approach to the region.

Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest

Written by Thierry Lepani

As China and the US push for greater influence in the Pacific, Papua New Guinea has seemingly become the first port of call for the two nations to solidify their standing in the region.

Pacific9DLJune 19, 20239dashline, Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest, THIERRY LEPANI, Papua New Guinea, Pacific, Pacific islands, China, united states, PNG, Australia, global superpowers, Port Moresby, Forum for India-Pacific Island Cooperation, FIPIC, Pacific Island nations, India, Prime Minister Modi, US President Joe Biden, New Zealand, Quad, Japan, US-PNG Defense Cooperation Agreement, DCA, US-PNG relations, military cooperation, Anthony Albanese, Quad summit, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US-Pacific Island Country Summit, Prime Minister James Marape, foreign policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping, APEC summit, Beijing, One-China policy, Connect PNG, Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Power Index 2023, Economic Relationships and Diplomatic Influence, protests, demonstrations, Washington, US military, security cooperation, bilateral relationship, PNG Defence Force, diplomacy, reciprocal visa arrangements, Asia-Pacific region, trade and investment, Blinken

The forgotten operation: What Australia’s Pacific policy can learn from the RAMSI intervention

Written by Dr Michael Wesley

If large numbers of Solomon Islanders see Australia as an indispensable partner, it will limit the ability of the country’s elected politicians to build closer partnerships with Australia’s strategic competitors in the Pacific.

AUKUS and Australia’s domestic opinion

Written by Sian Troath

Whether people oppose the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, have mixed views, or support it, they often do ground their assessments in strategic analysis and a consideration of other priorities.

New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?

Written by Kina Kunz

If the current trend continues, we may be witnessing New Zealand in the process of edging away from its hedging position and instead committing to the US bloc in this ‘new Cold War’.

Pacific9DLMay 3, 20239dashline, Kina Kunz, New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?, Chris Hipkins, New Zealand, foreign policy, domestic issues, Jacinda Ardern, NZ Labour Party, China, New Zealand-China, security policy, Australia, China Policy, Ardern administration, Hipkins administration, diplomatic dispute, Wellington, Morrison government, Nicholas Khoo, Annie-Marie Brady, Nanaia Mahuta, Aotearoa Foreign Minister, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, Russia-Ukraine war, economic diversification, AUKUS, anti-nuclear stance, non-nuclear pillar, formal alliance, Asia-Pacific, Helen Clark, Pacific and Southeast Asian states, US-China rivalry, Māori, Treaty of Waitangi, Robert Patman, Indo-Pacific region, multilateral security arrangement, NATO, Asia Pacific Four, AP4, Andrew Little, defence portfolio, defence policy review, TikTok, security alignment, NZ

Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism

Written by Xuyang Dong

Australia is being remade into an active and helpful middle power in its region with its own agency, constructively and strategically navigating its presence in the geopolitics of growing China-US rivalry.

Pacific9DLMay 2, 20239DashLine, Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism, Xuyang Dong, Penny Wong, Australia, multiculturalism, Anthony Albanese, Albanese Labor Government, Labor Party, Australian Labor Party, feminism, diversity, Malaysia, elite politics, representation, White Australia Policy, immigration, China, foreign policy, renewable energy, ‘shoe-leather' diplomacy, Southeast Asia, Pacific, First Nations, colonialism, First Nation foreign policy, British colonial history, balancing power, Liberal-National Coalition, United States, backyard, national interests, security pact, Solomon Islands, foreign aid, Beijing-Honiara security agreement, Morrison government, climate change, Blue Pacific, United Kingdom, British colonialism, Justin Mohamed, Ambassador for First Nations People, Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islanders, Hamish Fejo, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), indigenous peoples, Hugh White, empathy, cross-cultural, new world order, globalisation, middle power, geopolitics, China-US rivalry

Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?

Written by Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson

The approaching milestone on Bougainville’s journey to independence could once again see China escalating its efforts.

Pacific9DLApril 6, 20239DashLine, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?, Corey Lee Bell, Elena Collinson, Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, independence, referendum, Bougainvilleans, civil war, Bougainville Civil War, self-determination, territorial integrity, sovereignty, separatism, China, security partnerships, ethnopolitical tensions, geostrategic rivalries, Pacific, geopolitics, Australia, neocolonialist, Canberra, security interests, Labor government, Plan for a Stronger Pacific Family, ratification, Prime Minister James Marape, election, autonomy, Bougainville Autonomous Region, Panguna mine, parliament, representation, Governor-General Bob Dadae, separatist movements, Australia’s “Pacific Family”, Buka, Port Moresby, unilateral independence, declaration of independence, Australia’s inner arc, security partner, Comprehensive Strategic and Economic Partnership, Bilateral Security Treaty, Taurama Barracks, Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko, Joint Initiative at Lombrum Naval Base, Chinese state media, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles, President Ishmael Toroama, Solomon Islands archipelago, sea lines, United States, Beijing, Honiara, Kolombangara Island, naval diplomacy, then-President John Momis, Bougainville China Cooperation Committee, trade, Bougainville Import Export Corporation, Scylla, Charybdis, tourism, agriculture, mining, Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family

The Bougainville Autonomous Region: Balancing independence and foreign relations

Written by Dr Lucas Knotter

While it is tempting to view the relatively small island of Bougainville as merely drifting into the geopolitical whirlwinds of more powerful actors in the region, we should not forget that Bougainville also maintains considerable leverage in relation to these actors.

Pacific, Emerging Issues9DLJanuary 31, 20239dashline, Bougainville, Bougainville Autonomous Region, Lucas Knotter, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, APEC, Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, FTAAP, Antony Blinken, Papua New Guinea, US, James Marape, China, Xi Jinping, Pacific islands, Pacific island states, trade partner, Friend to all; Enemy to None, PNG, China-US tensions, Autonomous Region of Bougainville, ARB, 2019 referendum, PNG-US-China geopolitics, sovereignty, 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement, Ishmael Toroama, Era Kone Covenant, post-referendum agreements, Bougainville independence, international recognition, independence, Panguna copper mine, natural resources, anti-colonial struggles, Australia, mine workers, environmental destruction, Bougainville Civil War, Sam Kauona, Belt and Road Initiative, Solomon Islands, 2021 unrest, Beijing, Global Fragility Act, GFA, 2015 Bougainville Mining Act, Taipei, Sovereign Wealth Fund, Richard Marles, defence

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

With Australian elections ushering in a change of government and Aotearoa New Zealand’s planned parliamentary elections this year, 9DASHLINE sought the views of several experts on the state of both nations’ foreign and defence policies.

Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20232023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons, 9dashline, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, New Zealand, China, United States, Australian elections, parliamentary elections, foreign and defence policies, geopolitics, NICHOLAS ROSS SMITH, Jacinda Ardern, trading partner, security relationship, middle-ground position, Wang Yi, NZ Labour Party, Wellington, National party, Christopher Luxon, putative Indo-Pacific ‘hedging’ strategy, MELISSA CONLEY TYLER, import restrictions, Prime Minister Albanese, President Xi, G20 Summit, China’s economic coercion, climate change policies, clean energy, Pacific Island countries, 2026 UN Conference of the Parties, JASON YOUNG, supply chain resilience, social cohesion, economic resilience, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Japan, United Kingdom, Partners in the Blue Pacific, President Biden, APEC Summit, China’s Covid restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s activities in the South China Sea, liberal-democratic Western bloc, Moscow, Beijing, geopolitical shatterbelt, Taiwan, Canberra, Tokyo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nanaia Mahuta, Free Trade Agreements (FTA), European Union, trade diversification, anti-nuclear advocacy

2023: The prospect of Pacific Island agency

9DASHLINE asks several experts for their assessment of the prospects for Pacific Island agency in 2023 international politics, especially beyond the 'big power influence' by the US and China that has so often been written about in 2022.

Pacific9DLJanuary 25, 20232023: The prospects of Pacific Island agency, 9DashLine, Pacific Islands, climate action, US-China competition for hegemony, Indo-Pacific security dynamics, big power influence, PRIESTLEY HABRU, heterogeneous, colonial, colonialism, great power competition, China, The Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, United Nations General Assembly, democracy, Taipei, Beijing, economic development, former Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, US President Joe Biden, US-Pacific Partnership Summit, Washington DC, Fiji, Sitiveni Rabuka, Australian Labor government, Australia, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Suva, geopolitics, JOANNE WALLIS, UK, strategic competition, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, climate change, Pacific Islands Forum’s ‘Blue Pacific’ narrative, Blue Pacific, ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (PBP) initiative, New Zealand, Japan, MAIMA KORO, Samoa, US-Pacific Partnership Declaration, HENRIETTA MCNEILL, South Korea, European Union, Cook Islands, Niue, French territories, Micronesian states, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent

2023: Where is Japan headed under Kishida?

9DASHLINE invited a select group of experts to assess how the Kishida administration’s policies on domestic, international, economic, and security issues will differ from the Abe administration.

Pacific9DLJanuary 20, 20239dashline, 2023: Where is Japan under Kishida headed?, DR JAMES D. BROWN, James DJ Brown, DR EVA PEJSOVA, EVA PEJSOVA, DR ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, DR STEPHEN NAGY, Stephen Nagy, Japan, Fumio Kishida, Kishida, Abe, Shinzo Abe, Abe administration, approval ratings, Kishida administration, Abenomics, stimulatory economic policy, Japanese military, scandals, nepotism, free-market, new capitalism, security reforms, defence spending, strike missiles, public mood, dovish approach, foreign affairs, security affairs, Russia-Ukraine war, China’s expansionism, China, rules-based international order, US allies, security ties, deterrence, defence budget, nuclear non-proliferation, Taiwan, hostile security environment, geopolitical shocks, party politics, defence posture, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, Chinese market, Unification Church investigations, National Security Strategy, G7 presidency, UN Security Council non-permanent seat, Tokyo, Sino-US rivalry, Yoshida Doctrine, US-Japan alliance, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, EPA, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision, FOIP, strategic imperatives, domestic reform

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

As a reinvigorated Quad steps up its engagement, some observers have called for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to establish a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific via a standing maritime force. But how viable is this idea?

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