diplomacy — 9DASHLINE

Sino-India rivalry for port dominance in Bangladesh

Written by Mae Chow and Shakthi De Silva

Ultimately, Bangladesh's ability to maintain constructive engagements with China and India will not only shape its own future trajectory but also contribute significantly to the stability and prosperity of the broader Indo-Pacific region.

South Asia, Faultlines9DLApril 24, 2024Sino-India rivalry for port dominance in Bangladesh, Mae Chow, Shakthi de Silva, 9DASHLINE, Bangladesh, India China, India, China, Sino-India rivalry, least developed country, developed economy, port, maritime, infrastructure, trade, port infrastructure, Beijing, New Delhi, Dhaka, intra-regional trade, Belt and Road, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Bangladesh-China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCM-EC), Myanmar, Mongla Port, Bay of Bengal, Neighbourhood First Policy, Kyaukpyu, Sri Lanka, Hambantota Port, Chittagong, foreign direct investment, China Harbour Engineering Company, investment, Sheikh Hasina, Sonadia Deep-Sea Port Project, single-point mooring, sea-land integrated super-large oil storage and transportation system, Chittagong port, China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC), China State Engineering and Construction Company (CSCEC), Payra Deep Seaport, Indian Ocean, littoral, String Of Pearls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Maldives, Nepal, connectivity, sea lines, Mongla port, Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line, Eigs India Consulting Engineers, Mongla Port Authority, development, Bangladesh Export Processing Zone Authority (BEPZA), Yun Sheng BD, Mongla Export Processing Zone, electric vehicle manufacturing supply chains, loans, balancing, strategic partnerships, sovereignty, diplomacy

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

Written by James Kaizuka

Deeper institutionalisation of security cooperation, bilaterally between Japan and South Korea and trilaterally also including the United States, can head off all of these threats and ensure that the ‘inaugural’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue is not the ‘only’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

East Asia9DLMarch 27, 20249dashline, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat, James Kaizuka, Japan, South Korea, US, trilateral, Indo-Pacific Dialogue, Populism, Washington, cooperation, mutual threats, Security, GSOMIA intelligence-sharing agreement, GSOMIA, Soviet, Tsushima Strait, nationalism, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida, South Korea’s President Yoon, President Biden, authoritarian threat, democracy, Republican Party, President Trump, US allies, trans-pacific, transatlantic, isolationist, free-riding, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, depoliticising, Seoul, Tokyo, populism, elections, South Korea’s National Assembly, Democratic Party, Yoon’s Japan policy, Liberal Democratic Party, Nippon Kaigi, revisionism, Takaichi Sanae, Yasukuni Shrine, Ukraine, territory, history, reparations, wartime compensation, nuclear terrorism, Fukushima’s wastewater, Fukushima, Fukushima water, 1923 Kanto earthquake, second Trump presidency, Anti-military base movements, Alkonis affair, America First, Chinese disinformation, espionage, election interference, Camp David summit, NATO, European Union, Southeast Asia, Seibou Bunri, seikei bunri, diplomacy, defence

As the Philippines’ 'agency' in West Philippine Sea rises, so too does its infrastructure development

Written by Joshua Bernard Espeña

In the Philippine context, the country’s newfound middle-power position offers the Southeast Asian state the ability to navigate uncertainties based on clearly defined national interests, and doubling down on its commitment to develop its infrastructures in the West Philippine Sea is one of the ways to do it.

Southeast Asia9DLMarch 21, 20249dashline, Joshua Bernard Espeña, Philippines, Philippine sea, maritime infrastructure development, Anti-Access/Area-Denial operations, A2/AD, South China Sea, SCS, drones, imagery intelligence devices, agency, assertive transparency, revisionist moves, middle-power, Southeast Asia, national interests, Philippine Congress, infrastructure development, Martin Romualdez, economic development, resource base, natural resources, Manila, diplomacy, China, Beijing, theory of victory, strategic culture, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Marcos Jr., National Security Policy (NSP) 2023-2028, NSP 2023-2028, multipolar world, national sovereignty, territorial integrity, national security, resupply missions, joint exercises, construction development, John Mearsheimer, foreign policy objectives, informational spheres, like-minded allies, domestic politics, external powers, foreign policy, Philippine-US alliance, Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, EDCA, Northern Luzon, Huang Xilian, Taiwan, Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept, CADC, Armed Forces of the Philippines, AFP, Mavulis Island, Basco, Batanes province, American interests, Chinese power, Taiwan Strait, West Philippine Sea, Philippine Department of National Defence, archipelagic security, geostrategic agency, Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine-China relations, Malacañang Palace, Cheloy Serafil, Xi, Pantaleon Alvarez, appeasement, Jonathan Malaya, territory, multi-domain future warfare, warfare, As the Philippines’ 'agency' in West Philippine Sea rises, so too does its infrastructure development

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

Written by Rorry Daniels

While breakthroughs remain unlikely, the test in 2024 is whether the US and China can manage differences quietly and directly while under the political magnifying glass.

Faultlines9DLMarch 12, 2024US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident, 9DASHLINE, Rorry Daniels, US-China relationship, China, US, United States, balloon, spy balloon, Chinese surveillance, espionage, US-China diplomatic interaction, US elections, Taiwan, spy balloon incident, Biden administration, Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Beijing, bureaucracies, domestic politics, homeland security, bipartisan consensus, Washington, Xi Jinping, propaganda, state-driven, 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, Gaza, Middle East, NATO, Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s inner circle, US sanctions, Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, COVID recovery, authoritarianism, co-exist peacefully, free market principles, diversification, hedging, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, cross-Strait, US presidential and congressional elections, diplomacy, Taipei, non-proliferation, humanitarian aid

Hungary’s bet on China: Smart move or desperate attempt?

Written by Dr Tamás Matura

Playing a balancing act between the East and the West, Orbán hopes to boost his international political clout and the economic development of Hungary by cosying up to other illiberal world leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMarch 4, 20249dashline, Hungary’s bet on China: Smart move or desperate attempt?, Dr Tamás Matura, Hungary, China, Viktor Orbán, Beijing, Budapest, illiberal governments, Xi Jinping, Chinese investors, Western investors, China policy, Sino-Hungary, EV industry, Central Europe, EU, Orbán, Eastern Opening Policy, comprehensive strategic partnership, pro-China policies, veto, Council veto, human rights abuses, EU proposals, South China Sea, Russia-Ukrainian war, 16+1 framework, Baltic states, Poland, Czechia, Romania, diplomatic resources, economic resources, friendship, diplomacy, Beijing's strategic interests, EU statements, Hungarian economy, Chinese economic presence, Chinese capital, European automotive industry, Berlin, BRI, Budapest-Belgrade railway line, EU technological standards, Chinese factories, Serbia, multinational manufacturers, transportation corridor, infrastructure, EV, manufacturing exports, European economic crisis, domestic companies, crony capitalism, unemployment, guest workers, hatemongering, migrants, migration, minority groups, foreign workers, countryside, veto power, 16+1 cooperation, middleman strategy

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

Faultlines9DLAugust 11, 2023China’s uncertain future as a global security provider, Lukas Fiala, 9DashLine, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Beijing, Global South, security, mediator, Riyadh, Tehran, Middle East, Washington, diplomacy, isolation, COVID-19, pandemic, United States, China’s overseas security strategy, strategy, foreign policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, mediation, peace and security, peace broker, non-state actors, intrastate conflicts, statist approach, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, security and defence cooperation, Hu Jintao, United Nations peacekeeping (UNPK) missions, South Sudan, Mali, Africa, Latin America, multilateral, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military base in Djibouti, Global Security Initiative (GSI), security actor, US-led global security order, global security governance, UN Charter, indivisible security, sovereignty, 1975 Helsinki Accords, Vladimir Putin, NATO expansion, NATO, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western imperialism, imperial history, Western colonial powers, century of national humiliation, Soviet Union, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Western hegemony, principle of non-interference, non-aligned movement, Cold War, non-intervention, 干涉, 干预, security provider, Sudan, Libya, ‘Go Out Strategy’ (走出去战略), Chinese state-owned enterprises, natural resources, raw materials, multilateral lenders, development finance, human rights, good governance, 2008 Beijing Olympics, al-Bashir regime, African Union, Darfur, Libyan civil war, People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA), Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese interests, power projection, security-development nexus, liberal peace, developmental peace, Ethiopia, civil war, Pakistan, South Asia, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamic extremism, Islamabad, sovereign lender, arbiter, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Saudi-Iran rapprochement, Iraq, Afghanistan, global war on terror, piracy, Gulf of Aden, 9dashline

In Conversation with Dr Rohan Mukherjee

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Dr Rohan Mukherjee to talk about his fascinating book Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions. Using original and robust archival evidence, the book offers the first comprehensive study of conflict and cooperation as new powers join the global arena.

In Conversation9DLJuly 26, 20239dashline, ROHAN MUKHERJEE, In Conversation with Dr Rohan Mukherjee, Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions, international order, international institutions, rising powers, India, China, Institutional Status Theory, major power, great power, status, hierarchy, diplomacy, war, conflict, Graham Allison, Britain, United States, Beijing, post-1945 US-led international order, trade, finance, human rights, development, environment, Cold War, non-state actors, hegemony, great power club, UN Security Council, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), UN General Assembly, G20, G7, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, C. Raja Mohan, Global North, Global South, Afro-Asian solidarity, Third World, multilateralism, climate change, peacekeeping, global governance, Washington System, Japan, Tokyo, Washington Conference, racism, Asian Development Bank, Korea, Russia, Tudor Onea, Confederacy, American Civil War, 1871 Treaty of Washington

Why China is an unlikely mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war

Written by Dr Eva Seiwert

Despite China’s interest in increasing its involvement in crisis resolution, it remains unclear whether Beijing is willing to mediate, and whether it can be a fair broker, in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest

Written by Thierry Lepani

As China and the US push for greater influence in the Pacific, Papua New Guinea has seemingly become the first port of call for the two nations to solidify their standing in the region.

Pacific9DLJune 19, 20239dashline, Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest, THIERRY LEPANI, Papua New Guinea, Pacific, Pacific islands, China, united states, PNG, Australia, global superpowers, Port Moresby, Forum for India-Pacific Island Cooperation, FIPIC, Pacific Island nations, India, Prime Minister Modi, US President Joe Biden, New Zealand, Quad, Japan, US-PNG Defense Cooperation Agreement, DCA, US-PNG relations, military cooperation, Anthony Albanese, Quad summit, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US-Pacific Island Country Summit, Prime Minister James Marape, foreign policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping, APEC summit, Beijing, One-China policy, Connect PNG, Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Power Index 2023, Economic Relationships and Diplomatic Influence, protests, demonstrations, Washington, US military, security cooperation, bilateral relationship, PNG Defence Force, diplomacy, reciprocal visa arrangements, Asia-Pacific region, trade and investment, Blinken

Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations

Written by Dr William Hurst

The bet that security fears could be addressed to allow the resumption of progress on trade did not pay off. China lost a significant opportunity to re-open more fully to the world and deepen its economic ties with arguably its most important trading partner (the Eurozone).

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 31, 20239DashLine, Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations, William Hurst, China, EU, China-Europe relations, diplomacy, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK, Lu Shaye, sovereignty, post-Soviet states, Ukraine, Chinese National Chairman Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, trade, most favoured nation, human rights, President Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, policy of de-linking, decoupling, de-risking, United States, Taiwan, North Korea, ideology, values, global power, security interests, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, NATO, neutrality, Vladimir Putin, Japan, balance of power, India, the West, aircraft carrier, China-Ukraine relations, Beijing, Brussels, strategic signalling, Paris, US State Department, President Biden, Moscow, Kyiv, peace negotiations, peace talks, sanctions, de-escalation, Eurozone

In Conversation with Agathe Demarais

9DASHLINE recently had the pleasure of speaking with Agathe Demarais to discuss her timely and important book Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests.

In Conversation9DLApril 20, 20239dashline, In Conversation with Agathe Demarais, Agathe Demarais, sanctions, US, United States, policymakers, geopolitics, global economy, US interests, US influence, Office of Foreign Assets Control, US foreign policy, diplomacy, UN, EU, private firms, Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow, diplomatic toolkit, military interventions, diplomatic declarations, Russia, Iran, North Korea, negotiating table, nuclear deal, Iranian economy, Rouhani, international negotiations, economic collapse, existential war, non-US businesses, fines, US Treasury Department, sanctions evasion, Iran nuclear deal, secondary sanctions, transatlantic alliance, US hegemony, multipolar world, Western democratic values, human rights principles, China, Chinese economy, financial tools, Swift, CIPS, non-Western financial channels, cryptocurrencies, digital renminbi, e-yuan, Chinese central bank, financial transactions, Rusal, COSCO, supply chain disruptions, price hikes, job losses, Russian propaganda campaigns, economic ripple effects, energy prices, blockades, food insecurity, G7/EU, oil price cap, Russian oil exports, crude oil, decoupling, microchip sector, US-China relations, Taiwan

Quiet for a change: the Marcos approach so far

Written by Angelica Mangahas

When it comes to China, Marcos has been more provocative than Duterte but also more discreet than Aquino.

The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition

Written by Dante Schulz

The Taliban’s inability to address the security and economic concerns of its partners will only exacerbate the glaring issues plaguing Afghanistan.

Faultlines9DLMarch 21, 20239DashLine, The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition, Dante Schulz, Taliban, Afghan Acting Minister of Interior Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, European Union, Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance, diplomacy, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, official recognition, Taliban regime, human rights, terrorist groups, terrorism, Kabul, Afghan Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi, Turkey, Antalya Diplomacy Forum, China, Tunxi Neighbouring Countries Meeting, Tashkent International Conference, Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, NATO, India, embassy, national security, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company, investment, Afghanistan’s Amu Darya river basin, Chinese-Taliban economic partnership, United Nations, ban women from attending universities, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, ban on female aid workers, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Turkmen, Uzbeks, inclusive government, displacement, ethnic minorities, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Islamabad, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Obaid ur Rehman Nizamani, global caliphate, Chinese Ambassador Wang Yu, ceasefire

Forum: The Rules-Based International Order in the Indo-Pacific

In recent years discussions among scholars, analysts, and policymakers have focused on the nature, transformation, and/or ostensible crisis of the rules-based international order. We invite three experts to offer differing perspectives on these ongoing debates in the context of the Indo-Pacific in this Forum for 9DASHLINE.

Emerging Issues9DLFebruary 8, 20239dashline, Forum: The Rules-Based International Order in the Indo-Pacific, rules-based international order, NON-ALIGNMENT, VAN JACKSON, Indo-Pacific, strategic non-alignment, Sri Lanka, Asian political economy, minor powers, sovereign debt, India, worker precarity, East Asian development model, global economic order, Sino-US competition, United States, China, spheres of influence, zero-sum, Indonesia, East Timor, Singapore, Pacific Island nations, Non-Aligned Movement. As great powers try to, great powers, Cold War, hedging, Third-World politics, FLEUR JOHNS, Multilateral, automated socio-technical systems, diplomacy, Automatic Identification System (AIS), mangrove forests, Indo-Pacific lionfish, ecology, GEORGE LAWSON, international order, Covid pandemic, war in Ukraine, costs of living, Western power, liberal, AUKUS, Taiwan, Myanmar, financial crisis

India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?

Written by Manali Kumar

With the next round of parliamentary elections scheduled for the summer of 2024, Modi is already in campaign mode, and the G20 presidency has all but been declared a success.

South Asia9DLJanuary 26, 2023India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?, 9DashLine, Manali Kumar, India, G20, Bali Summit, emerging economies, debt crises, global economic and financial governance, war in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Poland, Indonesia, food and energy security, climate crisis, post-Covid economic recession and inflationary crisis, inflation, recession, New Delhi, One Earth, One Family, One Future, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s G20 presidency, Global South, ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE), disaster risk reduction and resilience, economic crime, green hydrogen, climate financing, loss and damage fund, COP27, cryptocurrency, regulation, Bali declaration, US, Reserve Bank of India, dollarisation, tax evasion, money laundering, protectionism, sustainable development, empowering women, Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, Russia’s aggression, neutrality, Russian oil, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, sanctions, peace agreement, COVID-19 pandemic, China-US rivalry, diplomacy, re-election

In Conversation with Salvador Santino Fulo Regilme Jr.

We recently had the pleasure of speaking with Salvador Santino Fulo Regilme Jr. about his latest book, Aid Imperium: United States Foreign Policy and Human Rights in Post-Cold War Southeast Asia.

In Conversation9DLDecember 14, 20229DashLine, Salvador Santino Fulo Regilme Jr., United States, US, human rights, post-Cold War era, Southeast Asia, In Conversation: Salvador Santino Fulo Regilme Jr., foreign policy, US foreign policy, state repression, physical integrity rights, Global South, interest convergence, donor government, recipient government, domestic legitimacy, foreign aid, bilateral aid, diplomacy, interest convergence theory, policy agendas, democracy promotion, socio-economic policies, militarism, counterterrorism, domestic state repression, extrajudicial killings, state harassment, coercive state agencies, political agency, foreign aid programmes, US anti-terror funds, UN, Washington DC, Thailand, Philippines, US interests, President Aquino, militaristic authoritarianism, Obama administration, Aquino administration, President Marcos Jr., Duterte, Sara Duterte, state coercion, People Power Revolution, Walden Bello, University of the Philippines, socio-economic justice, material inequalities, marginalised communities, South China Sea, Asia-Pacific, traditional sphere of control, Beijing, USAID, capacity building, aid donor, aid donor countries, hedging, US-China rivalry

Australia comes out of China’s ‘deep freeze’

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler

Australia’s export industries will hope to see progress in the coming months. Because the trade restrictions were not formalised, they are easy and quick to reverse — if there is the political will to do so.

Pacific9DLDecember 5, 20229DashLine, Australia comes out of China’s ‘deep freeze’, Melissa Conley Tyler, G20, G20 summit, Australia, China, Anthony Albanese, Xi Jinping, diplomacy, bilateral meetings, Chinese-Australian diaspora, comprehensive strategic partnership, free trade agreement, cyber attacks, espionage, foreign interference, human rights abuses, foreign investment, Huawei, 5G network, foreign-interference legislation, human rights advocacy, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Covid-19 inquiry, diplomatic freeze, import restrictions, defence, Li Keqiang, East Asia Summit, trade blockages, Taiwan, Russia, economic coercion, Australian Labor Party, ALP, Liberal–National coalition, Richard Marles, China-Australia relations, trade restrictions, export industries, James Laurenceson, Cheng Lei, Yang Hengjun, Australian government