NATO — 9DASHLINE

9DASHLINE recently had the pleasure of speaking with Dr Walter Hatch about his latest book Ghosts in the Neighborhood: Why Japan Is Haunted by Its Past and Germany Is Not.

In Conversation9DLApril 12, 2024Walter F. Hatch, 9dashline, Ghosts in the neighborhood: Why Japan is haunted by its past and Germany os not, In Conversation with Walter F. Hatch, Germany, Japan, United States, European Union, NATO, Europe, Asia

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

Written by James Kaizuka

Deeper institutionalisation of security cooperation, bilaterally between Japan and South Korea and trilaterally also including the United States, can head off all of these threats and ensure that the ‘inaugural’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue is not the ‘only’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

East Asia9DLMarch 27, 20249dashline, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat, James Kaizuka, Japan, South Korea, US, trilateral, Indo-Pacific Dialogue, Populism, Washington, cooperation, mutual threats, Security, GSOMIA intelligence-sharing agreement, GSOMIA, Soviet, Tsushima Strait, nationalism, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida, South Korea’s President Yoon, President Biden, authoritarian threat, democracy, Republican Party, President Trump, US allies, trans-pacific, transatlantic, isolationist, free-riding, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, depoliticising, Seoul, Tokyo, populism, elections, South Korea’s National Assembly, Democratic Party, Yoon’s Japan policy, Liberal Democratic Party, Nippon Kaigi, revisionism, Takaichi Sanae, Yasukuni Shrine, Ukraine, territory, history, reparations, wartime compensation, nuclear terrorism, Fukushima’s wastewater, Fukushima, Fukushima water, 1923 Kanto earthquake, second Trump presidency, Anti-military base movements, Alkonis affair, America First, Chinese disinformation, espionage, election interference, Camp David summit, NATO, European Union, Southeast Asia, Seibou Bunri, seikei bunri, diplomacy, defence

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

Written by Rorry Daniels

While breakthroughs remain unlikely, the test in 2024 is whether the US and China can manage differences quietly and directly while under the political magnifying glass.

Faultlines9DLMarch 12, 2024US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident, 9DASHLINE, Rorry Daniels, US-China relationship, China, US, United States, balloon, spy balloon, Chinese surveillance, espionage, US-China diplomatic interaction, US elections, Taiwan, spy balloon incident, Biden administration, Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Beijing, bureaucracies, domestic politics, homeland security, bipartisan consensus, Washington, Xi Jinping, propaganda, state-driven, 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, Gaza, Middle East, NATO, Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s inner circle, US sanctions, Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, COVID recovery, authoritarianism, co-exist peacefully, free market principles, diversification, hedging, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, cross-Strait, US presidential and congressional elections, diplomacy, Taipei, non-proliferation, humanitarian aid

Portugal needs a clear strategy for the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rita Durão

Consolidating a strategy towards the Indo-Pacific would not only signify Portugal's commitment towards enhancing its global presence through a multilateral approach but also present opportunities for fostering economic growth, strengthening diplomatic ties, and promoting regional stability.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMarch 7, 2024Portugal needs a clear strategy for the Indo-Pacific, 9DashLine, Rita Durão, Portugal, Indo-Pacific, European Union, Atlantic front, NATO, United States, Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP), snap elections, Socialist Party (PS), Democratic Alliance (AD), Communist Party (PCP), Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), China, India, non-alignment, blocs, Liberal Initiative (IL), Risk Reduction Strategy, People Animals Nature (PAN), Portuguese-speaking countries, human rights, multilateral, rules-based order, 16th EU-India summit, Porto, 2021 Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, Macau, Belt and Road Initiative, soft distancing, 5G, Portugal's 5G network, like-minded partners, Japan, South Korea, Prime Minister António Costa, EU-ASEAN summit, Dialogue on Asia, 2024 Diplomatic Seminar, Lisbon, Singapore, G20, observer, Timor-Leste, Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN, Vietnam, ASEAN, Shangri-La Dialogue, maritime empire, colonialism, Macao, East Timor, Sines Port, Azores, blue economy, EDP Renewables, Indonesia, Indo-Pacific strategy

Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities

Written by Dr Rafal Ulatowski

Germany is too weak militarily to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Its military presence satisfies the expectations of the regional middle powers and of the United States while having only a minor adverse impact on Germany’s relations with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 10, 20249DashLine, Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities, Rafal Ulatowski, Germany, Indo-Pacific, European Union, EU, bilateral, regional powers, liberal international order, open markets, China, trade, Chinese-German cooperation, intergovernmental consultations, German-Chinese partnership, Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific, National Security Strategy, Strategy on China, German Navy, German frigate Bayern, German National Security Strategy, German Strategy on China, US-Chinese competition, diversifying, diversification, democratic values, German-Chinese relations, comprehensive strategic partnership, Federation of German Industries (BDI), partner, competitor, Italy, important partner, systemic rival, military presence, Bayern frigate, Operation Rapid Pacific, Australia, symbolic, middle powers, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, democracies, shared values, resilient supply chains, German arms exports, investments, export, Taiwan, Hing Kong, Hong Kong, malaysia, Thailand, FDI, Luxembourg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, de-risking, decoupling, Alliance 90/The Greens, Social Democrats, German companies, sensitive technologies, United Kingdom, Bundeswehr, Zeitenwende, NATO, defence spending, 2 per cent goal, Berlin, United States, confrontation, strategic interests, SIPRI, Russia-Ukrainian war, dependence, great powers, COVID-19 pandemic

German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?

Written by Hendrik A. Pasligh

As the European arms industry scrambles to manage the needs of and lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine, Germany has sought to rekindle its defence-industrial cooperation with India.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 21, 20239dashline, German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?, Hendrik A. Pasligh, Germany, India, submarines, weapons arsenal, arms industry, Russia-Ukraine war, defence-industrial cooperation, key technologies, domestic defence industry, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Indian Navy, Mumbai, Project-75, geopolitical dynamics, defence industries, US defence, European defence, artillery shells, long-term economic feasibility, Rheinmetall, Zeitenwende, Boris Pistorius, strategic partnership, Berlin, New Delhi, Germany-India partnership, arms sales, border disputes, Pakistan, China, PRC, nuclear powers, Moscow, beijing, Russian arms, strategic interest, Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s navy, uncrewed surface and underwater vehicles, USV, UUV, self-sufficiency, indigenous aircraft carrier programme, international cooperation, ‘Make in India’ policy, technology transfer, domestic industrial capacity, rules-based international order, German National Security Strategy, Annalena Baerbock, feminist foreign policy, gender-based violence, NATO, defence startups, economies of scale

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

Faultlines9DLAugust 11, 2023China’s uncertain future as a global security provider, Lukas Fiala, 9DashLine, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Beijing, Global South, security, mediator, Riyadh, Tehran, Middle East, Washington, diplomacy, isolation, COVID-19, pandemic, United States, China’s overseas security strategy, strategy, foreign policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, mediation, peace and security, peace broker, non-state actors, intrastate conflicts, statist approach, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, security and defence cooperation, Hu Jintao, United Nations peacekeeping (UNPK) missions, South Sudan, Mali, Africa, Latin America, multilateral, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military base in Djibouti, Global Security Initiative (GSI), security actor, US-led global security order, global security governance, UN Charter, indivisible security, sovereignty, 1975 Helsinki Accords, Vladimir Putin, NATO expansion, NATO, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western imperialism, imperial history, Western colonial powers, century of national humiliation, Soviet Union, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Western hegemony, principle of non-interference, non-aligned movement, Cold War, non-intervention, 干涉, 干预, security provider, Sudan, Libya, ‘Go Out Strategy’ (走出去战略), Chinese state-owned enterprises, natural resources, raw materials, multilateral lenders, development finance, human rights, good governance, 2008 Beijing Olympics, al-Bashir regime, African Union, Darfur, Libyan civil war, People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA), Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese interests, power projection, security-development nexus, liberal peace, developmental peace, Ethiopia, civil war, Pakistan, South Asia, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamic extremism, Islamabad, sovereign lender, arbiter, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Saudi-Iran rapprochement, Iraq, Afghanistan, global war on terror, piracy, Gulf of Aden, 9dashline

Why China is an unlikely mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war

Written by Dr Eva Seiwert

Despite China’s interest in increasing its involvement in crisis resolution, it remains unclear whether Beijing is willing to mediate, and whether it can be a fair broker, in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Mathieu Droin

The brewing Indo-Pacific architecture is inherently “flexilateral” due to the breadth of factors and the rapidly changing stakes that determine its many actors’ positions.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 28, 20239DashLine, The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific, Mathieu Droin, European Union, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, AUKUS, transatlantic, minilateral, Indo-Pacific, Japan, China, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), India, strategy, flexilateral, Thucydides trap, geoeconomic, trade, geostrategic, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, clubs, biannual EU-US high-level consultations on the Indo-Pacific, Washington, France, overseas territories, Indian Ocean, Pacific, strategic autonomy, puissance d’equilibres, power of balances, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Pacific Islands, Netherlands, Germany, Council of the EU, EU presidency, Italy, Rome, Tempest programme, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Raisina Dialogue, Denmark, maritime domain, Hungary, Chinese coercion, Lithuania, dependence, Berlin, Beijing, German Indo-Pacific strategy, Central and Eastern Europe, Xi, Putin, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia-China axis, NATO, EU Indo-Pacific forum, South Korea, New Zealand, President Macron, GLOBSEC Forum, North Macedonia, Sweden, Djibouti, Laos, transatlantic Quad, Anglo-Saxons, aspiring powers, rising powers, strategic autonomists, GCAP, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, freedom to manoeuvre, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, Quad, EU, UK, Thucydides, Giorgia Meloni, Ukraine, Czech, Nato, GLOBSEC, NZ, UAE, CSIC, CSIS

Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations

Written by Dr William Hurst

The bet that security fears could be addressed to allow the resumption of progress on trade did not pay off. China lost a significant opportunity to re-open more fully to the world and deepen its economic ties with arguably its most important trading partner (the Eurozone).

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 31, 20239DashLine, Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations, William Hurst, China, EU, China-Europe relations, diplomacy, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK, Lu Shaye, sovereignty, post-Soviet states, Ukraine, Chinese National Chairman Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, trade, most favoured nation, human rights, President Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, policy of de-linking, decoupling, de-risking, United States, Taiwan, North Korea, ideology, values, global power, security interests, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, NATO, neutrality, Vladimir Putin, Japan, balance of power, India, the West, aircraft carrier, China-Ukraine relations, Beijing, Brussels, strategic signalling, Paris, US State Department, President Biden, Moscow, Kyiv, peace negotiations, peace talks, sanctions, de-escalation, Eurozone

’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin

Written by Dr Kerry Brown

In this context, the one positive Russia offers to China is that it does not belong to the Western bloc. Xi’s seemingly warm words to Putin are an acknowledgement that his enemy’s enemy is his friend.

Editor's Picks9DLMay 11, 20239DashLine, ’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin, Kerry Brown, President Xi Jinping, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Moscow, geopolitics, Chinese elite, America, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sino-Russian, China-Russia alignment, Beijing, autocratic norm, democracy, common destiny, Community of Common Destiny, community of common destiny for mankind, win-win, Belt and Road Initiative, Qing, Republican, People’s Republic, Winston Churchill, Second World War, Great Powers, UK, middle-income, sense of destiny, Western hegemony, multipolarity, Western bloc, NATO, Soviet, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, peace plan, nuclear weapons, ‘WE’RE GOING THROUGH CHANGES’ – WHAT XI MEANT WHEN HE SPOKE TO PUTIN, Xi Jinping, Putin, Ukraine, Nuclear, United Kingdom, US, WW2, WWII, Lau China Institute, Kings College London, Centro Studi Sulla Cina Contemporanea Summer School

Japan’s defence plans: What matters is implementation

Written by Dr Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Without continuous efforts in Japan including securing monetary and political capital — together with coordinating and cooperating with regional partners — Tokyo’s push for defence modernisation will face a myriad of challenges going forward.

East Asia9DLMay 8, 2023Japan’s defence plans: what matters is implementation, 9DashLine, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan, defence, military, National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Buildup Program (DBP), pacifism, Japan’s pacifist constitution, Tokyo, Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF), counterattacks, military readiness, defence planning, National Defense Program Guidelines, China, North Korea, Russia, threats, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, conflict, warfare, military modernisation, strike capabilities, nuclear doctrine, preemptive strikes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, hybrid warfare, psychological warfare, cognitive warfare, capabilities, resilience, hypervelocity gliding projectiles, Okinawa, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, defence budget, US-Japan alliance, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral coordination, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, free and open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), NATO, Southeast Asia, rule of law, security dilemma

Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence

Written by Adrienne Wu and Melynn Oliver

Those who argue for a formal remilitarisation of Japan should consider why they advocate such a move. Amending Japan’s constitution has proven unnecessary to expand the SDF, therefore the only major benefit is to assay the fears of the Japanese public and expand its international role.

East Asia9DLMay 5, 20239DashLine, Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence, Adrienne Wu, Melynn Oliver, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defence budget, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tokyo, Japan's security, defence capabilities, Article 9 framework, Article 9, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, constitutional reform, US, Indo-Pacific, Japan’s pacifist constitution, pacifism, US forces, World War II, Korean War, Washington, Japan’s Supreme Court, right to self-defence, sovereignty, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, remilitarisation of Japan, Defense Agency, defence-related exports, collective defence, National Security Council, National Security Strategy (NSS), House of Representatives, Public support, Russia’s nuclear threats, Russia, China, anti-nuclear stance, Japan’s security role, tax hikes, National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Build-up Program (DBP), heightened alert posture, global power shifts, strategic challenge, North Korea, counter-strike capabilities, defence procurement and industrial development strategy, strategic clarity, strategic ambiguity, Taiwan, US-Japan Alliance, Quad, NATO

New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?

Written by Kina Kunz

If the current trend continues, we may be witnessing New Zealand in the process of edging away from its hedging position and instead committing to the US bloc in this ‘new Cold War’.

Pacific9DLMay 3, 20239dashline, Kina Kunz, New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?, Chris Hipkins, New Zealand, foreign policy, domestic issues, Jacinda Ardern, NZ Labour Party, China, New Zealand-China, security policy, Australia, China Policy, Ardern administration, Hipkins administration, diplomatic dispute, Wellington, Morrison government, Nicholas Khoo, Annie-Marie Brady, Nanaia Mahuta, Aotearoa Foreign Minister, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, Russia-Ukraine war, economic diversification, AUKUS, anti-nuclear stance, non-nuclear pillar, formal alliance, Asia-Pacific, Helen Clark, Pacific and Southeast Asian states, US-China rivalry, Māori, Treaty of Waitangi, Robert Patman, Indo-Pacific region, multilateral security arrangement, NATO, Asia Pacific Four, AP4, Andrew Little, defence portfolio, defence policy review, TikTok, security alignment, NZ

Sabah is a flashpoint for Islamist extremism and separatism in Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Maurizio Geri

Both the Malaysian and Philippine governments should be careful not to allow pressure from these disparate groups to create discord which could unravel the critical progress made so far through the Bangsamoro peace process.

Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

9DASHLINE asks several experts to assess what Russia’s war in Ukraine means for the international order and what the consequences may be for issues in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLApril 4, 20239DashLine, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — a year on, Russian President Vladimir Putin, invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s security order, international order, sanctions, Western sanctions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATHAN LEVINE, United States, EU, deterrence, sanctions evasion, China, Taiwan, regional balance of military power, resistance, chaos of war, amphibious invasion of Taiwan, Japan, Beijing, HEE KYOUNG CHANG, new Cold War, authoritarianism, democracy, Second World War, sovereignty and territorial integrity, Germany, neutrality, Finland, Sweden, NATO, South Korea, Russian economy, India, Turkey, Russian oil and gas, North Korea, free trade, bipolar or multipolar system, LEV NACHMAN, solidarity with democracies, autocratisation, anti-authoritarianism, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan Strait, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition

Written by Dante Schulz

The Taliban’s inability to address the security and economic concerns of its partners will only exacerbate the glaring issues plaguing Afghanistan.

Faultlines9DLMarch 21, 20239DashLine, The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition, Dante Schulz, Taliban, Afghan Acting Minister of Interior Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, European Union, Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance, diplomacy, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, official recognition, Taliban regime, human rights, terrorist groups, terrorism, Kabul, Afghan Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi, Turkey, Antalya Diplomacy Forum, China, Tunxi Neighbouring Countries Meeting, Tashkent International Conference, Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, NATO, India, embassy, national security, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company, investment, Afghanistan’s Amu Darya river basin, Chinese-Taliban economic partnership, United Nations, ban women from attending universities, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, ban on female aid workers, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Turkmen, Uzbeks, inclusive government, displacement, ethnic minorities, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Islamabad, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Obaid ur Rehman Nizamani, global caliphate, Chinese Ambassador Wang Yu, ceasefire