deterrence — 9DASHLINE

The strawman defence is torching Taiwan’s military

Written by Michael Lostumbo

Taiwan should assess its existing force and all future investments and evaluate them from the lens of their warfighting potential, which should be the primary focus for their military.

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

AUKUS and Australia’s domestic opinion

Written by Sian Troath

Whether people oppose the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, have mixed views, or support it, they often do ground their assessments in strategic analysis and a consideration of other priorities.

Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal

Written by Andi Raihanah Ashar

Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia are unlikely to pursue a missile deal involving an India-Russian joint venture as long as they have to put their relationship with the US at risk.

Faultlines9DLApril 25, 20239DashLine, Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal, Andi Raihanah Ashar, Indonesia, China, Russia, India, Act East, strategic partner, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence exports, arms sales, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, New Delhi, BrahMos Aerospace, defence industry, Defence Research and Development Organisation, NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM), sanctions, Russian war against Ukraine, interoperability, India’s defence industry, Beijing, military equipment, defence budget, deterrence, cruise missile, supersonic cruise missile, United States International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), hypersonic missile, Atul D. Rane, Philippines, Philippine Marine Corps, sea-denial capability, Manila, Luzon, Palawan, South China Sea, Vietnam, Malaysia, territorial disputes, nine-dash line, Jakarta, National Armed Forces (TNI), Minimum Essential Force (MEF), Andika Perkasa, Prabowo Subianto, France, Qatar, Germany, Turkey, procurement, Rajnath Singh, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, coastal defence, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), PT Len Industri, Joko Widodo, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), Washington, USA, Iran, North Korea, Sukhoi Su-27 SK/SKM, Su-30MKK/MK2, Mil Mi-17V5, Mil Mi35P, P-800 Oniks (3M55), army, navy, air force, KRI Oswald Siahaan, US Senate, Sukhoi Su-35, F-5 Tiger, Lockheed Martin F-16V, 22 BMP-3F, 21 BT-3F, Su-27/30, Belarus, Harry Roque, BrahMos, NPOM, Mashinostroyenia, Ukraine, Southeast Asia, International Traffic in Arms Regulations, ITAR, Palawan Islands, Nine Dash Line, Widodo, CAATSA, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Sukhoi, Maritime Security and Counterterrorism, Modi

The Chinese dragon may spout fire but is not ten feet tall yet

Written by Joe Varner

A strong US industrial base with sufficient munitions stockpiles and weapons systems is critical for deterring Beijing in war.

In Brief with Enoch Wu, founder of Forward Alliance

9DASHLINE recently had the pleasure of speaking with Enoch Wu, the founder of Forward Alliance. His organisation works to empower Taiwanese citizens to protect themselves and their communities in the face of disasters by providing civilian emergency-response training.

Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

9DASHLINE asks several experts to assess what Russia’s war in Ukraine means for the international order and what the consequences may be for issues in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLApril 4, 20239DashLine, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — a year on, Russian President Vladimir Putin, invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s security order, international order, sanctions, Western sanctions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATHAN LEVINE, United States, EU, deterrence, sanctions evasion, China, Taiwan, regional balance of military power, resistance, chaos of war, amphibious invasion of Taiwan, Japan, Beijing, HEE KYOUNG CHANG, new Cold War, authoritarianism, democracy, Second World War, sovereignty and territorial integrity, Germany, neutrality, Finland, Sweden, NATO, South Korea, Russian economy, India, Turkey, Russian oil and gas, North Korea, free trade, bipolar or multipolar system, LEV NACHMAN, solidarity with democracies, autocratisation, anti-authoritarianism, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan Strait, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

2023: Where is Japan headed under Kishida?

9DASHLINE invited a select group of experts to assess how the Kishida administration’s policies on domestic, international, economic, and security issues will differ from the Abe administration.

Pacific9DLJanuary 20, 20239dashline, 2023: Where is Japan under Kishida headed?, DR JAMES D. BROWN, James DJ Brown, DR EVA PEJSOVA, EVA PEJSOVA, DR ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP, DR STEPHEN NAGY, Stephen Nagy, Japan, Fumio Kishida, Kishida, Abe, Shinzo Abe, Abe administration, approval ratings, Kishida administration, Abenomics, stimulatory economic policy, Japanese military, scandals, nepotism, free-market, new capitalism, security reforms, defence spending, strike missiles, public mood, dovish approach, foreign affairs, security affairs, Russia-Ukraine war, China’s expansionism, China, rules-based international order, US allies, security ties, deterrence, defence budget, nuclear non-proliferation, Taiwan, hostile security environment, geopolitical shocks, party politics, defence posture, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, Chinese market, Unification Church investigations, National Security Strategy, G7 presidency, UN Security Council non-permanent seat, Tokyo, Sino-US rivalry, Yoshida Doctrine, US-Japan alliance, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, EPA, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision, FOIP, strategic imperatives, domestic reform

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rafael Loss and Elisabeth I-Mi Suh

Adopting a rather transactional take and framing the Bundeswehr’s regional engagement in the context of Washington’s focus on China is not wrong, but it is short-sighted.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 1, 20229DashLine, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, Rafael Loss, Betty Suh, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Bundeswehr, Indo-Pacific, Germany, Berlin, diplomacy, German federal armed forces, armed forces, joint exercises, NATO, NATO allies, Australia, China, military posture, National Security Strategy, China Strategy, German frigate Bayern, German Navy, navy, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Eberhard Zorn, Pakistan, Guam, Japan, south korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, India, South China Sea, innocent passage, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Shanghai, German Air Force, Eurofighter, jets, transporters, tankers, Rapid Pacific, Pitch Black air combat exercise, Kakadu maritime combat exercise, F-35 stealth aircraft, F-35, Talisman Saber, United States, NATO sumiit, Nato Summit, NATO Strategic Concept, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand, cyber, cyber defence, maritime security, climate change, Disinformation, hybrid threats, Canberra, Tokio, Tokyo, Enhanced Opportunity Partner, Multilateralism, Asia-Pacific, deterrence, Taiwan, North Korea, missile tests, Rheinmetall, Russia, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army, Russian Navy, authoritarian revisionism, White House

More than signalling: North Korea’s missiles and Japan’s enhanced need for deterrence

Written by Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi and Christopher Lamont

Even though Japan’s defence planning faces dilemmas and doubts going forward, there is a renewed consensus in Tokyo that more must be done to deter and defend against a diverse range of challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia.

East Asia9DLOctober 28, 20229DashLine, More than signalling: North Korea’s missiles and Japan’s enhanced need for deterrence, Christopher Lamont, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, North Korea, missile launches, tactical nuclear operation units, Korean People’s Army, KPA, intermediate-range ballistic missile, Japan, Japanese archipelago, Northern Japan, combat aircraft, artillery drills, China, Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine war, Pyongyang, Taepodong, technological demonstrators, Hwasongpho-12, intermediate-range missiles, intercontinental ballistic missile, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, missile tests, strategic signalling, South Korea, United States, Tokyo, five-year military modernisation plan, nuclear weapons doctrine, ‘dead hand’ strike mechanisms, Kim Jong-un, ‘decapitation’ strike, military readiness, hybrid warfare, high-end weapons systems, aircraft carriers, artillery, anti-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, mines, submarines, electronic and cyber warfare capabilities, information warfare, misinformation, missile drills, nuclear missile arsenal, Self-Defence Forces, SDF, ballistic missile defence, BMD, Aegis-guided SM-3 systems, SM-6, Patriot PAC-3 systems, Russia, deterrence, Korean peninsula

Resilience and deterrence to guide Taiwan’s future

Written by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

Strengthening deterrence in the face of growing hostility and new threats is where Taiwan’s leaders and citizens must focus more of their energy, in close cooperation with trusted partners, including the EU.

East Asia9DLOctober 25, 20229DashLine, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Resilience and deterrence to guide Taiwan’s future, Double Tenth National Day Celebration, President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan, resilience, deterrence, EU, post-pandemic recovery, climate crisis, economic inequality, authoritarian threat, strategic dependencies, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC, People's Republic of China, democracy protection, democracy promotion, supply chains, Beijing, economic statecraft, Taiwanese independence, Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Raphaël Glucksmann, European Parliament, disinformation, transparency, technology, fact-checking mechanisms, media literacy education, people-public-private partnership, #StrongerTogether, democracy, Audrey Tang, COVID-19 pandemic, semiconductors, New Southbound Policy, bilateral relations, Brussels, Resilient Supply Chains Agreement, Supply Chains Resilience Initiative, SCRI, Russia, sanctions, Taipei, Forward Alliance, Enoch Wu

Slowing the escalatory spiral over Taiwan

Written by Amanda Hsiao and Ivy Kwek

A long-lasting solution on Taiwan will be difficult to realise anytime soon. However, avoiding miscalculation and slowing the escalatory spiral that the parties are currently engaged in are achievable outcomes that Taipei, Washington, and Beijing should prioritise.

East Asia9DLSeptember 29, 20229DashLine, Slowing the escalatory spiral over Taiwan, Amanda Hsiao, Ivy Kwek, Taiwan, China, US, USA, escalatory spiral, escalation, Washington, Beijing, Taipei, US-China rivalry, US-China competition, US-China relations, military, military exercise, reunification, one China, one Taiwan, US-Taiwan relations, US Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi, cyberattacks, sanctions, Taiwanese, Chinese, sovereignty, Pelosi’s visit, median line, maritime, navy, airspace, drone, drones, human error, Pacific, US-Taiwan engagement, defence, defence spending, arms sale, arms package, Biden administration, Biden, Joe Biden, Central Asia, United Nations, 20th Party Congress, Party Congress, propaganda, Xi, Xi Jinping, amphibious invasion, amphibious, military intervention, Trump, Trump administration, Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Japan, Yonaguni Island, Philippines’ EEZ, Philippines, Manila, Taiwan conflict, Taiwan Strait, escalatory cycle, deter, deterrence, One China policy, One China Policy, One China, One-China, One-China Policy, Three Communiques, US Congress, Taiwan Policy Act

The US should prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Ukraine, but the clash of interests should not be overstated

Written by Áine Cooke

The US must ensure that it remains competitive by enhancing its military capabilities to deter an invasion of Taiwan, as well as by extending its diplomatic reach to counter China’s extensive regional engagement, and by formulating a comprehensive economic and climate policy.