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In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

China and Australia appear to have patched things up, and more conciliatory tones are even heard about relations with the United States following Xi’s visit in November. In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks a number of experts to weigh in on whether we can expect improving ties to continue through 2024.

Editor's Picks9DLJanuary 12, 20249DashLine, In Forum 2024: China’s policy towards the West, China, Xi Jinping, dual circulation, Chinese Dual Circulation Strategy, trade, Beijing, Western democracies, Australia, United States, In Forum, FOREIGN POLICY, Selina Ho, Great power rivalry, Joe Biden, APEC summit, Chinese diplomacy, the West, wolf warrior, Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, the Philippines, Vietnam, security, sanctions, Chinese economy, Chinese society, South China Sea, Taiwan, JEAN CHRISTOPHER MITTELSTAEDT, self-reliance, geopolitical, China's strategic flexibility, green technology, electric vehicles, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, smile diplomacy, Susan Shirk, overreach, strategic pause, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Deng Xiaoping, China's global influence, G20 summit in Bali, China's de-risking agenda, raw materials, export, supply chains, de-risking, decoupling, open markets, Russia, Hamas, anti-coercion, dual diplomacy, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), China’s soft approach, ZICHEN WANG, Wang Yi, APEC, APEC meeting, high-quality domestic development, Japan, South Korea, european union, Marxism, ideology, Gina Raimondo, enemy, Washington, San Francisco, bilateral, unilateral, zero-sum game, peaceful development, ANDREW CHUBB, China-US relationship, Canberra, Albanese government, Anthony Albanese, In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

Australia-China relations: Where to now?

Australia-China relations: Where to now?

Written by Elena Collinson

After seven years marked by bullying and heavy-handed tactics by Beijing, episodes of diplomatic inelegance by Canberra, and the asperity of mutual criticism, Australia-China relations have tentatively shifted to a more normalised state.

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

US-Australia green deal shows friends need benefits

Written by James Bowen

Australia’s enthusiastic embrace of its new US partnership should inform Washington’s green industrial outreach elsewhere in the world.

Editor's Picks9DLJune 22, 20239dashline, US-Australia green deal shows friends need benefits, James Bowen, G7 Summit, G7 summit in Hiroshima, United States, US, Australia, Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact, green industrial policy, bilateral alliance, clean energy supply chains, China, energy transition goods, processed minerals, lithium, Cobalt, rare earths, nickel, solar panels, renewable hydrogen, ammonia, fossil fuels, partnership-building, Washington, Inflation Reduction Act, IRA, climate-conscious economic renaissance, climate action, supply chain, green industrial ambitions, US-Australian compact, Biden, Anthony Albanese, Defense Production Act, AUKUS, supply chain security, Pacific Island nations, decarbonisation, National Reconstruction Fund, Canberra, Minerals Security Partnership, bilateral relationship, green hydrogen production costs, tax credits, free trade agreement

Eyes on Asia: Shangri-La Security Dialogue's role in managing great power rivalry

Eyes on Asia: Shangri-La Security Dialogue's role in managing great power rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

For Singapore, the advantages are inordinate. As a tiny island nation, the annual conference allows the country to exercise a degree of influence and statecraft on the world stage that its material resources and capacity might not otherwise grant it.

Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?

Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?

Written by Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson

The approaching milestone on Bougainville’s journey to independence could once again see China escalating its efforts.

Pacific9DLApril 6, 20239DashLine, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?, Corey Lee Bell, Elena Collinson, Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, independence, referendum, Bougainvilleans, civil war, Bougainville Civil War, self-determination, territorial integrity, sovereignty, separatism, China, security partnerships, ethnopolitical tensions, geostrategic rivalries, Pacific, geopolitics, Australia, neocolonialist, Canberra, security interests, Labor government, Plan for a Stronger Pacific Family, ratification, Prime Minister James Marape, election, autonomy, Bougainville Autonomous Region, Panguna mine, parliament, representation, Governor-General Bob Dadae, separatist movements, Australia’s “Pacific Family”, Buka, Port Moresby, unilateral independence, declaration of independence, Australia’s inner arc, security partner, Comprehensive Strategic and Economic Partnership, Bilateral Security Treaty, Taurama Barracks, Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko, Joint Initiative at Lombrum Naval Base, Chinese state media, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles, President Ishmael Toroama, Solomon Islands archipelago, sea lines, United States, Beijing, Honiara, Kolombangara Island, naval diplomacy, then-President John Momis, Bougainville China Cooperation Committee, trade, Bougainville Import Export Corporation, Scylla, Charybdis, tourism, agriculture, mining, Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

With Australian elections ushering in a change of government and Aotearoa New Zealand’s planned parliamentary elections this year, 9DASHLINE sought the views of several experts on the state of both nations’ foreign and defence policies.

Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20232023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons, 9dashline, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, New Zealand, China, United States, Australian elections, parliamentary elections, foreign and defence policies, geopolitics, NICHOLAS ROSS SMITH, Jacinda Ardern, trading partner, security relationship, middle-ground position, Wang Yi, NZ Labour Party, Wellington, National party, Christopher Luxon, putative Indo-Pacific ‘hedging’ strategy, MELISSA CONLEY TYLER, import restrictions, Prime Minister Albanese, President Xi, G20 Summit, China’s economic coercion, climate change policies, clean energy, Pacific Island countries, 2026 UN Conference of the Parties, JASON YOUNG, supply chain resilience, social cohesion, economic resilience, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Japan, United Kingdom, Partners in the Blue Pacific, President Biden, APEC Summit, China’s Covid restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s activities in the South China Sea, liberal-democratic Western bloc, Moscow, Beijing, geopolitical shatterbelt, Taiwan, Canberra, Tokyo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nanaia Mahuta, Free Trade Agreements (FTA), European Union, trade diversification, anti-nuclear advocacy

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

As a reinvigorated Quad steps up its engagement, some observers have called for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to establish a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific via a standing maritime force. But how viable is this idea?

Pacific9DLJanuary 11, 20239dashline, The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific, Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, standing maritime force, Blake Herzinger, United States, military, vaccination, supply chains, climate, maritime security, Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, Quad vaccine partnership, Beijing, China, Australia, India, Japan, Horn of Africa, military alliance, Indian Ocean, New Delhi, South or East China Seas, East China Seas, South China Sea, navy, Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, Gulf of Aden, maritime trade, geoeconomic, Pacific islands, Canberra, Pacific arc, Retired US Admiral Gary Roughead, Pentagon, Washington, defence planning, sea control, Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, rule of law, sovereignty, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, Quad Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief meeting, Asian NATO, Quad Leaders’ Meeting, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Taiwan Straits, Korean peninsula, ASEAN, Canada, south korea, Taiwan

Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s inaugural strategic dialogue partner

Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s inaugural strategic dialogue partner

Written by Ridvan Kilic

Ultimately, in order to secure its maritime boundary in the North Natuna Sea, Indonesia needs the support of like-minded strategic partners from the Quad more than ever.

Pacific9DLDecember 12, 20229DashLine, Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s Inaugural Strategic Dialogue Partner, Ridvan Kilic, Indonesia, Quad, strategic dialogue partner, non-alignment, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, Jakarta, US-China hegemonic competition, US, China, Southeast Asia, North Natuna Sea, North Natuna Sea Exclusive Economic Zone, Exclusive Economic Zone, EEZ, sovereignty, strategic partnership, Quad countries, rules-based maritime order, Indo-Pacific, alignment, inaugural strategic dialogue partner, Joko Widodo, President Joko Widodo, Widodo, Jokowi, Global Maritime Fulcrum, GMF, economic cooperation, trade partners, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, infrastructure development, regional maritime power, Indonesian navy, maritime security, nine-dash line, South China Sea, SCS, non-claimant state, gas field, oil and gas drilling, Garuda Shield exercise, Indonesian National Armed Forces, Nusantara, Natuna archipelago, Makassar Strait, air force, navy capabilities, regional military capabilities, Washington, advanced fighter jets, Chinese assertiveness, Batam, Anthony Blinken, Retno Marsudi, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, freedom of navigation, japan, Natuna Islands, growing military build-up, military equipment and technology, bilateral relationship, india, Shared Vision of Maritime Cooperation, Andaman Sea, Sabang Deep Seaport, Aceh, Australia, Canberra, comprehensive strategic partnership, 2021 Australia-Indonesia security deal, Albanese Labor Government, Australia-Indonesia strategic partnership, Bahasa, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, military training, joint exercises, military hardware, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indo-Pacific Partnership Maritime Domain Awareness, IPMDA

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rafael Loss and Elisabeth I-Mi Suh

Adopting a rather transactional take and framing the Bundeswehr’s regional engagement in the context of Washington’s focus on China is not wrong, but it is short-sighted.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 1, 20229DashLine, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, Rafael Loss, Betty Suh, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Bundeswehr, Indo-Pacific, Germany, Berlin, diplomacy, German federal armed forces, armed forces, joint exercises, NATO, NATO allies, Australia, China, military posture, National Security Strategy, China Strategy, German frigate Bayern, German Navy, navy, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Eberhard Zorn, Pakistan, Guam, Japan, south korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, India, South China Sea, innocent passage, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Shanghai, German Air Force, Eurofighter, jets, transporters, tankers, Rapid Pacific, Pitch Black air combat exercise, Kakadu maritime combat exercise, F-35 stealth aircraft, F-35, Talisman Saber, United States, NATO sumiit, Nato Summit, NATO Strategic Concept, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand, cyber, cyber defence, maritime security, climate change, Disinformation, hybrid threats, Canberra, Tokio, Tokyo, Enhanced Opportunity Partner, Multilateralism, Asia-Pacific, deterrence, Taiwan, North Korea, missile tests, Rheinmetall, Russia, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army, Russian Navy, authoritarian revisionism, White House

Australia’s civil maritime security strategy may not be so 'civil'

Australia’s civil maritime security strategy may not be so 'civil'

Written by Edward Sing Yue Chan

Information sharing is even more difficult for states when it involves cooperating with non-state actors because they are cautious about the connections companies and individuals may have with other states.

New Zealand’s strategy in the Pacific: Intentional and consistent

New Zealand’s strategy in the Pacific: Intentional and consistent

Written by Henrietta McNeill

New Zealand’s approach in the Pacific is intentionally predicated on having long-standing trusted relationships with the Pacific Islands region, emphasising Pacific agency rather than acting reactively and impulsively.

Canada: The missing AUKUS member

Canada: The missing AUKUS member

Written by Moez Hayat

Canada’s omission from the AUKUS defence partnership is a missed opportunity for both Washington and Ottawa to leverage their longstanding alliance as relevant powers in the Indo-Pacific.

Lessons from Chinese government interference in Australia

Lessons from Chinese government interference in Australia

Written by James Laurenceson

Lancaster University’s Andrew Chubb pinpoints the big lesson from Australia’s experience with Chinese government interference: the risks must be disaggregated with each accorded its own assessment and response.

In Brief with Lisa Singh — CEO Australia India Institute

In Brief with Lisa Singh — CEO Australia India Institute

In terms of the ‘China challenge’, I think Australia’s key goal is to preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, both through its membership in the Quad and through maintaining cordial ties with China.

The team behind 9DASHLINE

The team behind 9DASHLINE

As we bid adieu to a busy and rewarding year for our team, 9DL’s leadership — David MacSweeney [Founder], Dr Manali Kumar [Editor-in-Chief], and Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy [Head of the Associates’ Network] — answer some frequently asked questions.

Australia’s defence policy in the grey zone

Australia’s defence policy in the grey zone

Written by Benjamin Herscovitch

Without discounting the possible threats that nuclear-powered submarines are designed to head off, Australia’s immediate priority remains competition with China in numerous scenarios short of war.