Eyes on Asia: Shangri-La Security Dialogue's role in managing great power rivalry

7 JUNE 2023

The 20th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), Asia’s preeminent Track 1 security conference, concluded on Sunday following the usual flurry of high-level diplomacy, backroom meetings, and media frenzy. As in past years, the US-China rivalry overshadowed much of the weekend’s panels, while Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine remained a major topic of discussion. However, Southeast Asian voices were hardly drowned out by their Western counterparts, and indeed actively shaped the agenda by advancing initiatives of their own. Their contributions as well as wider collegiality among such a diverse cast of actors highlight the SLD’s continued relevance and enduring utility as a platform for regional dialogue.

Widening gap between the great powers

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese used his keynote address (the first by an Australian leader since Malcolm Turnbull spoke in 2017) to call for guardrails to US-China competition, a theme which Singaporean leaders have consistently advocated in years past. The speech built on Penny Wong’s recent speech at the National Press Club laying out Canberra’s vision of “strategic equilibrium”.

Despite Albanese’s calls for restraint, the two superpowers predictably talked past one another, with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and China’s Minister of Defense Li Shangfu presenting their countries’ respective visions for 21st-century global order.

For Singapore, the advantages are inordinate. As a tiny island nation, the annual conference allows the country to exercise a degree of influence and statecraft on the world stage that its material resources and capacity might not otherwise grant it.

In a not-so-thinly veiled condemnation of the United States, General Li lamented, “Certain countries wilfully interfered in other countries’ internal matters and regional affairs, frequently resort to unilateral sanctions and armed coercion”. Li compared such bad behaviour with that of China, asserting that “Chinese ships and aircraft never go near other countries’ airspace and waters”. The irony of Li’s words was not lost on Southeast Asians in the audience, who pressed the general to explain the dissonance between Chinese words and actions.

For his part, Secretary Austin laid out the now-routine US “vision of a region in which all countries are free to thrive on their own terms — without coercion, or intimidation, or bullying”. Austin also called attention to China’s dangerous manoeuvres at sea and air and reaffirmed the binding nature of the Arbitral Tribunal’s 2016 ruling on the South China Sea.

While both US and Chinese defence officials signalled their commitment to cooperation and exploring areas of common interest, their remarks also exposed the deep gulf between the two sides’ understanding of the nature and purpose of such channels of communication. Responding to a question from the audience, Li proffered that mutual respect was a necessary precondition for dialogue. Otherwise, “communication will not be productive”.

According to Austin, however, communication is essential to avoid misunderstandings and unintended consequences: “Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity”.

Minilateralism is having a moment

Yet for all the sabre-rattling, the mood of the 2023 SLD was not entirely sombre, and a plethora of minilateral defence talks occurred on the sidelines. Reuters reported that senior intelligence officials from “about two dozen” countries held talks facilitated by Singapore’s government. And for the first time, the defence leaders of Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States sat down together, indicating increasing coordination between Quad countries and US allies.

Southeast Asian states also showcased their increasing agency in great power competition. Never one to refrain from the spotlight, Indonesia’s Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto presented a surprisingly detailed peace plan for Ukraine, including the creation of a demilitarised zone and a referendum for residents in disputed territories to voice their preferred outcome. While Prabowo’s plan was quickly shot down by Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, it nonetheless highlighted Jakarta’s traditionally non-aligned status and “free and active” foreign policy.

Glorified talk shop or forum for peace?

Pundits lamented the SLD’s inevitable failure to address looming great power conflict and its simultaneous — and hypocritical — elevation of voices advocating militarism in the guise of peace and diplomacy. Yet, while those criticisms are warranted, they ultimately miss the point of the SLD. Originally conceived as a joint venture between the Singapore government and the Institute for International and Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank, the regional defence ministers meeting has since taken on a size and importance that its founders could scarcely have imagined. Now in its twentieth iteration in 2023, the dialogue has become an essential venue for regional officials to espouse their views on topics of geopolitical significance in a forum where representatives from around the world must listen and engage with those of the global south.

For Singapore, the advantages are inordinate. As a tiny island nation, the annual conference allows the country to exercise a degree of influence and statecraft on the world stage that its material resources and capacity might not otherwise grant it. Even senior defence leaders from Canada, the UK, and the European Union feel compelled to travel to the city-state to present their own regional visions, which are increasingly central to foreign policy given the Indo-Pacific’s growing geostrategic magnitude.

For all the collective handwringing about the failure of the United States and China to engage in good faith, the two superpowers managed to avoid a head-on collision, even as a US Navy destroyer narrowly dodged impact with a Chinese warship that directly crossed its path in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday.

Where else would the top defence officials of the world’s two largest powers have a chance to smile and shake hands even though the United States continues to maintain sanctions against the latter? While far from a panacea to mounting tensions, that interpersonal moment, captured by cameras and myriad onlookers, at least shows that the two sides can act cordially together in public. Increased interactions such as this could pave the way for limited trust to evolve and deescalate current tensions. For now, it seems the SLD remains an important success story for regional diplomacy.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Hunter Marston is a PhD candidate in the Department of International Relations at Australian National University’s Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs and an Adjunct Research Fellow at La Trobe Asia. He is also an Associate with 9DASHLINE. Image credit: Flickr/U.S. Secretary of Defense.