Australia — 9DASHLINE

A purported pact: China’s quest for security foothold in Papua New Guinea

Written by Thierry Lepani

As much is yet to be seen with the Australian and US pacts, a potential pact with China should cater to PNG’s problems, rather than solely serving as a solution to China’s strategic positioning in the Pacific.

Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling

Written by Varenya Singh and Chetan Rana

China's persistent rejection of the tribunal's jurisdiction and ruling, along with its continuous assertion of sovereignty, underscores the limitations of international legal mechanisms in addressing deep-rooted geopolitical disputes.

Pacific, Power Politics9DLMarch 11, 20249DASHLINE, Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling, Chetan Rana, Varenya Singh, South China Sea, Cold War, Europe, West Asia, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Philippines, South China Sea (SCS), SCS, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, map, standard map, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), littoral states, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines Coast Guard, Sierra Madre, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly Islands, Filipino, grey-zone activities, non-military vessels, territorial claims, maritime militia, Beijing, Manila, vessels, maritime territorial disputes, arbitral proceedings, arbitration, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), PCA, PCA award of 2016, PCA ruling, China’s nine-dash line, nine-dash line, Annex VII, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, sovereignty, delimitation, artificially built islands, delimitation of state boundaries, Article 9, unilateral, fishermen, marine resources, fishing, 12 nautical mile, extractive, purely extractive activity, self-dependent economic activity, maritime fishing zones, coral reefs, turtle, clam, international law, dispute, ASEAN, Code of Conduct (CoC), COC, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., non-claimant states, Australia, Japan, United States, us, USA, militarising, military exercises, sea lanes, environmental crisis, securitisation, marine diversity, sustainability, realpolitik, Israel-Hamas conflict

Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia

Written by Dr Denis Suarsana

A quick and successful conclusion of trade negotiations with Indonesia would not only significantly strengthen Europe's role in the region but would also be an important step in the European strategy of de-risking from China.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 15, 20249DASHLINE, Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia, Denis Suarsana, Indonesia, voters, elections, presidential elections, Joko Widodo, Jokowi, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, autocratic Suharto regime, Suharto, Europe, EU, trade, climate, Non-Aligned Movement, foreign policy, Bebas dan Aktif, mediator, G20 presidency, G20, Russian invasion of Ukraine, ASEAN chairmanship, ASEAN, conflict in Myanmar, Myanmar, Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN in the South China Sea, Code of Conduct, ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, south china sea, neutral, China, United States, economic development, Ganjar Pranowo, Central Java Province, Anies Baswedan, Jakarta, US-China rivalry, great power rivalry, third way, trading partner, State of Southeast Asia Report, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, WTO, nickel export ban, palm oil, trade agreement, Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU CEPA), European Union, Indonesian elite, EU-ASEAN Summit, coercion, democracy, shopping, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), free trade zone, free trade, moral arrogance, moral, morality, equal partnerships, geopolitics, strategy of de-risking, de-risking, copper, nickel ore, tin, bauxite, China+1, China+1 efforts, investment, Global Gateway, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, EU’s Global Gateway, Europe’s Global Gateway, OECD, hedging, conditionality, hardliner

In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

China and Australia appear to have patched things up, and more conciliatory tones are even heard about relations with the United States following Xi’s visit in November. In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks a number of experts to weigh in on whether we can expect improving ties to continue through 2024.

Editor's Picks9DLJanuary 12, 20249DashLine, In Forum 2024: China’s policy towards the West, China, Xi Jinping, dual circulation, Chinese Dual Circulation Strategy, trade, Beijing, Western democracies, Australia, United States, In Forum, FOREIGN POLICY, Selina Ho, Great power rivalry, Joe Biden, APEC summit, Chinese diplomacy, the West, wolf warrior, Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, the Philippines, Vietnam, security, sanctions, Chinese economy, Chinese society, South China Sea, Taiwan, JEAN CHRISTOPHER MITTELSTAEDT, self-reliance, geopolitical, China's strategic flexibility, green technology, electric vehicles, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, smile diplomacy, Susan Shirk, overreach, strategic pause, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Deng Xiaoping, China's global influence, G20 summit in Bali, China's de-risking agenda, raw materials, export, supply chains, de-risking, decoupling, open markets, Russia, Hamas, anti-coercion, dual diplomacy, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), China’s soft approach, ZICHEN WANG, Wang Yi, APEC, APEC meeting, high-quality domestic development, Japan, South Korea, european union, Marxism, ideology, Gina Raimondo, enemy, Washington, San Francisco, bilateral, unilateral, zero-sum game, peaceful development, ANDREW CHUBB, China-US relationship, Canberra, Albanese government, Anthony Albanese, In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities

Written by Dr Rafal Ulatowski

Germany is too weak militarily to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Its military presence satisfies the expectations of the regional middle powers and of the United States while having only a minor adverse impact on Germany’s relations with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 10, 20249DashLine, Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities, Rafal Ulatowski, Germany, Indo-Pacific, European Union, EU, bilateral, regional powers, liberal international order, open markets, China, trade, Chinese-German cooperation, intergovernmental consultations, German-Chinese partnership, Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific, National Security Strategy, Strategy on China, German Navy, German frigate Bayern, German National Security Strategy, German Strategy on China, US-Chinese competition, diversifying, diversification, democratic values, German-Chinese relations, comprehensive strategic partnership, Federation of German Industries (BDI), partner, competitor, Italy, important partner, systemic rival, military presence, Bayern frigate, Operation Rapid Pacific, Australia, symbolic, middle powers, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, democracies, shared values, resilient supply chains, German arms exports, investments, export, Taiwan, Hing Kong, Hong Kong, malaysia, Thailand, FDI, Luxembourg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, de-risking, decoupling, Alliance 90/The Greens, Social Democrats, German companies, sensitive technologies, United Kingdom, Bundeswehr, Zeitenwende, NATO, defence spending, 2 per cent goal, Berlin, United States, confrontation, strategic interests, SIPRI, Russia-Ukrainian war, dependence, great powers, COVID-19 pandemic

Manila is shopping, not re-aligning

Written by Drake Long

Rather than celebrating each time a country publicly cancels a Chinese project, the US, Australia, the EU, and other nations competing for influence at the expense of Beijing should keep in mind the wider picture — Manila and other capitals like it are shopping around for alternatives.

Southeast Asia9DLDecember 7, 20239dashline, Drake Long, Manila is Shopping, Not Re-Aligning, Philippines, Manila, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Subic-Clark freight railway, Calamba-Bicol commuter rail line, inter-city Mindanao railway, Beijing’s influence, China Global Investment tracker, additional memorandum of understanding, Ferdinand Marcos, Marcos’ inauguration, Vanautu, cambodia, indonesia, vietnam, Laos, Sri Lanka, high-profile Chinese investment, Beijing, frontier market, Asian Development Bank, ASEAN, Mindanao, Brunei, Malaysia, conflict zone, Subic bay, state-owned enterprises, Loan repayments, debt-soaked Southeast Asian capitals, Chinese company, Western democracy, US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, maritime statecraft, EU, Australia, Chinese project, Beijing camp, investment deficit, Economic growth, Manila is shopping, not re-aligning, Manila is shopping not re-aligning

Southeast Asia’s security partnerships stronger and more diverse at the end of 2023

Written by Hunter Marston

Japan has emerged as a critical partner of choice for Southeast Asian countries, particularly in its efforts to build maritime and coast guard capacity for frontline states in the South China Sea, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Thomas Wilkins

Despite dangers closer to home and straitened finances, London does appear to be committed to the region, even if the implementation of some aspects of its new strategic approach remains patchy.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLNovember 30, 2023How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific, Dr Thomas Wilkins, 9Dashline, Great Britain, France, EU, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, resident power, minilateral engagements, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Integrated Review, Integrated Review Refresh, EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Global Britain, liberal international order, Royal Navy, multilateral military exercises, Development Assistance, China, Japan, India, ‘over the horizon’ partner, James Cleverly, networks and grids, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Australia, Singapore, TALISMAN SABRE military exercises, UK-Japan Strategic Partnership, British Defence Singapore Support Unit, AUKUS, Global Combat Aircraft Programme, Partnership for the Blue Pacific, Five Power Defence Arrangements, New Zealand, Malaysia, ASEAN, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement toward Transpacific Partnership

Movement on climate mobilities: developments from the Pacific Islands Forum

Written by Liam Moore

While alarmist reports of massive numbers of people potentially fleeing across borders because of climate change are incorrect and misunderstand the dynamics of migration, mobility — both within and between states — is a reality in the Pacific.

Pacific9DLNovember 29, 20239dashline, Movement on climate mobilities: Developments from the Pacific Islands Forum, Liam Moore, climate mobility, climate mobilities, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Pacific Island Forum, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility, Falepili Union treaty, Australia, Tuvalu, Pacific, COP28, Forum Dialogue Partners, Forum Communique, Implementation Plan for the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, climate change, climate disasters, human mobility, relocation migration, displacement, Declaration on the Establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility, Paris Agreement, fossil fuel, climate finance, decarbonisation, Jane McAdam, migration, Fiji, Pacific states, the Solomon Islands, cross-border mobility, asylum protections, climate refugees, migration pathways, alternative migration pathways, working visas, visa category, Chinese influence, sovereignty, state agency, Kausea Natano, Seve Paeniu, New Zealand, climate policy, US, residency, labour mobility schemes, labour mobility, bilateral agreements, Tuvalu-Australia agreement, migration agreements, security conditions, climate migrant, climate refugee, mobility options

Australia reaches out to Southeast Asia through development and economic partnerships

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler

Whether it is helping link civil society organisations or stimulating Australian business to wake up to opportunities in the region, the Australian government will need to engage many tools of statecraft to achieve its strategic goal of deep partnerships with Southeast Asia.

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

Strategic competition in the South Pacific and its implications for New Zealand

Written by Dr Reuben Steff

While China’s activities are concerning, it should be made clear to Beijing that NZ’s and others’ responses in the security sphere are dependent on China’s approach to the region.

Running from China: China’s youth dream of leaving

Written by Dr Franziska Plümmer

The risks of brain drain and demographic change are looming over the heads of Beijing’s policymakers and business leaders, who are also increasingly incentivising Chinese students to come back from abroad.

Emerging Issues9DLOctober 2, 2023Franziska Plümmer, Dr Franziska Plümmer, Running from China: China’s youth dream of leaving, 9dashline, refugees, China, zero-Covid measures, US, asylum, Canada, Australia, Latin America, pandemic, Chinese emigration, migration, Xi Jinping, UNHCR, International Organization for Migration, human rights activists, religious practitioners, exit bans, run-ology, White Paper Protests, lockdowns, travel restrictions, social control, under 40, Chinese society, discrimination, ageism, three-child policy, quiet quitting, neijuan 内卷, tangping 躺平, social media, Chinese netizens, runxue 润学, WeChat, emigrating, United States DIY, Southeast Asia, Colombia, Panama, censorship, brain drain, demographics, anti-emigration discourse, Chinese diaspora, workforce, national rejuvenation, dream of national rejuvenation, passport, 2023 Anti-Espionage Law, espionage, Safeguard Defenders, hostage diplomacy, hukou

Southeast Asian maritime states are hedging to stay afloat amidst US-China rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

As US-China rivalry hardens, becoming more zero-sum, and China continues to challenge the territorial sovereignty of maritime Southeast Asian states, it will become increasingly difficult to sustain such hedging policies.

Struggling brand “Bhutan”

Written by Dr Lhawang Ugyel

Perhaps it is time for the world to step up and convince Bhutan that its values are worth standing up for by investing in a sustainable economy premised around the well-being of its individuals.

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today

Written by Dr Oliver Scanlan

Taiwan has always sought ways to expand its geopolitical influence; expanding its ‘international space’ is a way of mitigating the risks of Chinese coercion. If establishing an SWF would serve this end, then a much larger development bank would be even more effective.

Editor's Picks9DLAugust 2, 20239DashLine, Oliver Scanlan, Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today, Taiwan, Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), geopolitics, Development Finance Institution, development bank, foreign exchange reserves, “Taiwan Development Bank” (TDB), government debt, concessionary finance, loans, interest rates, investment, decarbonisation, economic leverage, International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Santiago Principles, Yang Chin-Long, Taiwan’s Central Bank, Germany, KfW, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, Ethical, profitable, strategic sectors, Taiwania national investment fund, green energy, startups, joint ventures, circular economy, Taiwan’s “5+2” industrial strategy, resilience, adaptation, mitigation, official development assistance (ODA), “Indigenous Peoples Economic and Trade Cooperation Arrangement” (IPETCA), New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Indigenous Nations, World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), export-led economy, whose sovereign debt is an attractive, international credit ratings agencies, Fitch, Public Debt Act, Net International Investment Position, Philippines, debt-to-GDP ratio, Austria, Netherlands, G20, OECD, South Korea, E3G, Nick Mabey, risk, US Inflation Reduction Act, supply chain, climate change, Chinese coercion, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change