Southeast Asia deepens hedging amid Trump 2.0 turbulence

Written by Hunter Marston

Southeast Asian anxieties with the Trump administration’s turn toward protectionist trade policies were evident in the May 2025 ASEAN Summit, when the regional bloc expressed ‘deep concern’ with US tariffs.

Southeast Asia9DLJuly 1, 2025Southeast Asia deepens hedging amid Trump 2.0 turbulence, 9DASHLINE, Hunter Marston, South East Asia, United States, Cambodia, Singapore, Philippines, New Zealand, Canada, France, Southeast Asia, Trump, Shangri-La Dialogue

Discover the June issue of The Navigator – out now

This month our briefs examine shifting US engagement: new Pacific travel restrictions threaten Washington’s influence, while South Korea’s pragmatic diplomacy may clash with a potential Trump foreign policy reset. Across the region, leaders face a volatile mix of economic strain, diplomatic frictions, and intensifying rivalries — from South Asia’s post-crisis diplomacy to renewed tensions in Southeast Asia and growing unease in East Asia.

Subscribe today.

News9DLJune 27, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, South China Sea, India-Pakistan, India, Pakistan, France, New Caledonia, Macron, Cambodia, Pacific Islands, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga

India’s critical role in safeguarding undersea cables

Written by Arun Teja Polcumpally

To safeguard its internet infrastructure, India must invest in indigenous undersea cable maintenance capabilities, including commissioning Indian-flagged vessels for rapid response within its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone.

Discover the May issue of The Navigator – out now

This month we cover the India-Pakistan flare-up that reignited nuclear concerns, followed by a burst of regional diplomacy. Our briefs examine how China and India are turning foreign policy into a tool of domestic control — through maritime coercion in Beijing’s case, and treaty-based pressure from New Delhi.

Subscribe today.

News9DLMay 30, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, Russia, tariffs, Indus Water Treaty, South China Sea, India-Pakistan, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Nuclear, France, New Caledonia, Macron, Mu Sochua, Cambodia

Discover the April issue of The Navigator – out now

This month we explore rising economic tensions in Northeast Asia, as Japan and South Korea respond to a new wave of US tariffs. We also turn to Myanmar, where a devastating earthquake has worsened an already dire humanitarian crisis. Despite urgent calls for aid, the junta is blocking relief efforts while pushing ahead with its plans for elections amid ongoing conflict.

Subscribe today.

News9DLApril 25, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID, Myanmar, Russia, Myanmar earthquake, tariffs

Trump’s second chance to make a first impression in Asia

Written by Chris Estep

Trump should decisively establish his administration’s approach to competition with China by issuing his own Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document and endorsing it in a televised speech from the Oval Office.

Discover the March issue of The Navigator – out now

This month, alongside our usual roundup of events, we examine how India is balancing oil imports amid geopolitical pressures and the impact of defunding Radio Free Asia on US soft power in the Indo-Pacific.

Both developments underscore the shifting balance of influence, where economic choices and media narratives are shaping global power dynamics.

News9DLMarch 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID, Chetan Rana, David MacSweeney, Radio Free Asia, Voice of America, Myanmar, Russia, Soft Power

Discover the February issue of The Navigator – Out Now

This month we examine Berlin’s economic and political challenges, a tough stance on China, and Southeast Asia’s reaction to the arrival of the Trump 2.0 presidency amid US policy uncertainty.

News9DLFebruary 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Hunter Marston, Roderick Kefferpütz, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Ukraine, German, Friedrich Merz, Germany, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID

New Zealand foreign policy: From ‘independence’ to ‘realism’?

Written by Dr Lucas Knotter

NZ’s supposedly ‘new’ foreign policy is thus neither truly independent, nor truly realist, nor prompted to safeguard Aotearoa’s public interest.

Pacific9DLSeptember 9, 2024New Zealand, 9DASHLINE, Lucas Knotter, New Zealand Foreign Policy: From ‘Independence’ to ‘Realism’?, indo-pacific, AUKUS

NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership

Written by Emma Chanlett-Avery

A decisive shift in US policy towards isolationism and “America First” could disrupt or downgrade ‘trans-Atlantic’ and Indo-Pacific alliances.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia, Most Popular9DLAugust 8, 20249DASHLINE, Emma Chanlett-Avery, NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership, NATO, NATO Summit, Washington, Biden administration, Joe Biden, foreign policy, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, White House, the Indo-Pacific Partners (IPP), Russia’s aggression, China’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine, China, Russia, Ukraine, NATO-IPP relationship, Northeast Asia, European allies, Asian democracies, international liberal order, Tokyo, Seoul, South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, information security, counter-piracy, China as a strategic challenge, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Moscow, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Yoon Suk Yeol, NATO Summit in Madrid, sanctions, humanitarian aid, defence industry, Poland, arms exports, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, DPRK, anti-aircraft systems, Beijing, Putin-Kim summit, nuclear weapons, missiles, Pyongyang, Minilaterals, US-South Korea-Japan, US-Japan-Philippines, AUKUS, Quad, Biden-Harris administration, Donald Trump, isolationism, US Congress, GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance, defence planners, America First

NZ: Maori foreign policy to manage increasingly challenging relationship with China

Written by Bonnie Holster and Nicholas Ross Smith

Beyond the changing language of New Zealand’s strategic communications, its experimentation with a kaupapa Maori foreign policy has the potential to be transformative.

How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Thomas Wilkins

Despite dangers closer to home and straitened finances, London does appear to be committed to the region, even if the implementation of some aspects of its new strategic approach remains patchy.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLNovember 30, 2023How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific, Dr Thomas Wilkins, 9Dashline, Great Britain, France, EU, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, resident power, minilateral engagements, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Integrated Review, Integrated Review Refresh, EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Global Britain, liberal international order, Royal Navy, multilateral military exercises, Development Assistance, China, Japan, India, ‘over the horizon’ partner, James Cleverly, networks and grids, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Australia, Singapore, TALISMAN SABRE military exercises, UK-Japan Strategic Partnership, British Defence Singapore Support Unit, AUKUS, Global Combat Aircraft Programme, Partnership for the Blue Pacific, Five Power Defence Arrangements, New Zealand, Malaysia, ASEAN, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement toward Transpacific Partnership

Movement on climate mobilities: developments from the Pacific Islands Forum

Written by Liam Moore

While alarmist reports of massive numbers of people potentially fleeing across borders because of climate change are incorrect and misunderstand the dynamics of migration, mobility — both within and between states — is a reality in the Pacific.

Pacific9DLNovember 29, 20239dashline, Movement on climate mobilities: Developments from the Pacific Islands Forum, Liam Moore, climate mobility, climate mobilities, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Pacific Island Forum, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility, Falepili Union treaty, Australia, Tuvalu, Pacific, COP28, Forum Dialogue Partners, Forum Communique, Implementation Plan for the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, climate change, climate disasters, human mobility, relocation migration, displacement, Declaration on the Establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility, Paris Agreement, fossil fuel, climate finance, decarbonisation, Jane McAdam, migration, Fiji, Pacific states, the Solomon Islands, cross-border mobility, asylum protections, climate refugees, migration pathways, alternative migration pathways, working visas, visa category, Chinese influence, sovereignty, state agency, Kausea Natano, Seve Paeniu, New Zealand, climate policy, US, residency, labour mobility schemes, labour mobility, bilateral agreements, Tuvalu-Australia agreement, migration agreements, security conditions, climate migrant, climate refugee, mobility options

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Strategic competition in the South Pacific and its implications for New Zealand

Written by Dr Reuben Steff

While China’s activities are concerning, it should be made clear to Beijing that NZ’s and others’ responses in the security sphere are dependent on China’s approach to the region.

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today

Written by Dr Oliver Scanlan

Taiwan has always sought ways to expand its geopolitical influence; expanding its ‘international space’ is a way of mitigating the risks of Chinese coercion. If establishing an SWF would serve this end, then a much larger development bank would be even more effective.

Editor's Picks9DLAugust 2, 20239DashLine, Oliver Scanlan, Taiwan needs to establish its own World Bank — today, Taiwan, Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), geopolitics, Development Finance Institution, development bank, foreign exchange reserves, “Taiwan Development Bank” (TDB), government debt, concessionary finance, loans, interest rates, investment, decarbonisation, economic leverage, International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Santiago Principles, Yang Chin-Long, Taiwan’s Central Bank, Germany, KfW, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, Ethical, profitable, strategic sectors, Taiwania national investment fund, green energy, startups, joint ventures, circular economy, Taiwan’s “5+2” industrial strategy, resilience, adaptation, mitigation, official development assistance (ODA), “Indigenous Peoples Economic and Trade Cooperation Arrangement” (IPETCA), New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Indigenous Nations, World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), export-led economy, whose sovereign debt is an attractive, international credit ratings agencies, Fitch, Public Debt Act, Net International Investment Position, Philippines, debt-to-GDP ratio, Austria, Netherlands, G20, OECD, South Korea, E3G, Nick Mabey, risk, US Inflation Reduction Act, supply chain, climate change, Chinese coercion, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Mathieu Droin

The brewing Indo-Pacific architecture is inherently “flexilateral” due to the breadth of factors and the rapidly changing stakes that determine its many actors’ positions.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 28, 20239DashLine, The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific, Mathieu Droin, European Union, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, AUKUS, transatlantic, minilateral, Indo-Pacific, Japan, China, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), India, strategy, flexilateral, Thucydides trap, geoeconomic, trade, geostrategic, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, clubs, biannual EU-US high-level consultations on the Indo-Pacific, Washington, France, overseas territories, Indian Ocean, Pacific, strategic autonomy, puissance d’equilibres, power of balances, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Pacific Islands, Netherlands, Germany, Council of the EU, EU presidency, Italy, Rome, Tempest programme, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Raisina Dialogue, Denmark, maritime domain, Hungary, Chinese coercion, Lithuania, dependence, Berlin, Beijing, German Indo-Pacific strategy, Central and Eastern Europe, Xi, Putin, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia-China axis, NATO, EU Indo-Pacific forum, South Korea, New Zealand, President Macron, GLOBSEC Forum, North Macedonia, Sweden, Djibouti, Laos, transatlantic Quad, Anglo-Saxons, aspiring powers, rising powers, strategic autonomists, GCAP, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, freedom to manoeuvre, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, Quad, EU, UK, Thucydides, Giorgia Meloni, Ukraine, Czech, Nato, GLOBSEC, NZ, UAE, CSIC, CSIS