India — 9DASHLINE

Sino-India rivalry for port dominance in Bangladesh

Written by Mae Chow and Shakthi De Silva

Ultimately, Bangladesh's ability to maintain constructive engagements with China and India will not only shape its own future trajectory but also contribute significantly to the stability and prosperity of the broader Indo-Pacific region.

South Asia, Faultlines9DLApril 24, 2024Sino-India rivalry for port dominance in Bangladesh, Mae Chow, Shakthi de Silva, 9DASHLINE, Bangladesh, India China, India, China, Sino-India rivalry, least developed country, developed economy, port, maritime, infrastructure, trade, port infrastructure, Beijing, New Delhi, Dhaka, intra-regional trade, Belt and Road, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Bangladesh-China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCM-EC), Myanmar, Mongla Port, Bay of Bengal, Neighbourhood First Policy, Kyaukpyu, Sri Lanka, Hambantota Port, Chittagong, foreign direct investment, China Harbour Engineering Company, investment, Sheikh Hasina, Sonadia Deep-Sea Port Project, single-point mooring, sea-land integrated super-large oil storage and transportation system, Chittagong port, China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC), China State Engineering and Construction Company (CSCEC), Payra Deep Seaport, Indian Ocean, littoral, String Of Pearls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Maldives, Nepal, connectivity, sea lines, Mongla port, Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line, Eigs India Consulting Engineers, Mongla Port Authority, development, Bangladesh Export Processing Zone Authority (BEPZA), Yun Sheng BD, Mongla Export Processing Zone, electric vehicle manufacturing supply chains, loans, balancing, strategic partnerships, sovereignty, diplomacy

China-Maldives military agreement: an upgrade to the bilateral relationship

Written by Lea Thome

The Maldives finds itself caught in a tug-of-war between India and China. However, Malé under Muizzu’s presidency has shown increasing openness towards China as it strives to navigate the balance between the two countries and maintain its own sovereignty.

Wildcatting the Pacific: Seabed mining and the Pacific islands

Written by Drake Long

While the ISA Council could not agree on regulations, it did agree that it would from now on have oversight over the seabed mining application process instead of the ISA’s exclusive Legal and Technical Commission.

Don't expect any breakthroughs in India-Pakistan relations

Written by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Lacking confidence and bandwidth, Pakistan’s new government is unlikely to prioritise improving ties with India. If anything, India will be way down the pecking order of its policy actions.

South Asia9DLApril 4, 2024Syed Ali Zia Jaffery, 9dashline, Dont expect any breakthoughs in India-Pakistan relations, India, Pakistan, conflict, cooperation, ceasefire, LoC, Kashmir

BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future

Written by Kelly Antoinette Khyriem

As criticisms propel the initiative towards a BRI 2.0, if China actively addresses and mitigates risks associated with its projects by enhancing transparency and accountability frameworks, it has the potential to outpace the emerging alternatives that are challenging the BRI.

East Asia9DLMarch 29, 20249dashline, BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future, Kelly Antoinette Khyriem, Xi Jinping, China, PRC, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Maritime Silk Road, digital infrastructure, trade policy coordination, financial cooperation, multilateral institutions, Memoranda of Understanding, geopolitical strategy, domestic development, US-led international order, ‘string of pearls’ theory, Chinese investments, naval bases, Indian Ocean, crucial shipping routes, debt-trap diplomacy, BRI-related loans, Sri Lanka, economic sovereignty, debt trap narrative, governance deficiencies, corruption, 1Malaysia Development Berhad, 1MDB, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, human rights abuses, BRI infrastructure, BRI commitments, large-scale infrastructure projects, sustainability, ecology, carbon dioxide emissions, environmental implications, EU, US, India, transparency, labour rights, EU-Asia Connectivity Strategy, Global Gateway Initiative, Blue Dot Network, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, PGII, G20 Leaders' Summit, hydropower plants, solar farms, 5G, public-private partnerships, Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Digital Silk Road, e-commerce initiatives, BRI 2.0, Green Belt and Road, renewable energy, Clean Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Hambantota Port, Kenya, Zambia, Malaysia, debt management, digital connectivity, debt burdens, renewable energy investment, AIIB

Ageing China increases its military spending

Written by Jiachen Shi

Resorting to military build-up consistently emerges as a rational choice for Chinese policymakers who perceive the country as entangled in a series of ‘internal troubles’ such as social instability and ‘external threats’ such as provocations from the United States.

East Asia9DLMarch 22, 20249DASHLINE, Ageing China increases its military spending, Jiachen Shi, demographics, China, economy, demographic dividend, ageing, population ageing, military spending, party-state regime, national security, crowding-in effect, crowding-out effect, active-duty personnel, demobilised servicemen, prospective soldiers, PLA, China’s National Defence White Papers, only children, one-child policy, elder care, veterans, Ministry of Veterans Affairs, repression, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s military spending, defence budget, People’s Liberation Army (PLA), recruitment, draft, social status, traditional Chinese culture, Generation Z, code of honour, patriotism, geriatric peace theory, Mark Haas, US hegemony, socio-economic issues, military build-up, United States, India, Russia, Modi government, geriatric peace, political instability

Portugal needs a clear strategy for the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rita Durão

Consolidating a strategy towards the Indo-Pacific would not only signify Portugal's commitment towards enhancing its global presence through a multilateral approach but also present opportunities for fostering economic growth, strengthening diplomatic ties, and promoting regional stability.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMarch 7, 2024Portugal needs a clear strategy for the Indo-Pacific, 9DashLine, Rita Durão, Portugal, Indo-Pacific, European Union, Atlantic front, NATO, United States, Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP), snap elections, Socialist Party (PS), Democratic Alliance (AD), Communist Party (PCP), Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), China, India, non-alignment, blocs, Liberal Initiative (IL), Risk Reduction Strategy, People Animals Nature (PAN), Portuguese-speaking countries, human rights, multilateral, rules-based order, 16th EU-India summit, Porto, 2021 Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, Macau, Belt and Road Initiative, soft distancing, 5G, Portugal's 5G network, like-minded partners, Japan, South Korea, Prime Minister António Costa, EU-ASEAN summit, Dialogue on Asia, 2024 Diplomatic Seminar, Lisbon, Singapore, G20, observer, Timor-Leste, Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN, Vietnam, ASEAN, Shangri-La Dialogue, maritime empire, colonialism, Macao, East Timor, Sines Port, Azores, blue economy, EDP Renewables, Indonesia, Indo-Pacific strategy

In Forum — Great power politics amid great turbulence

For many in the Global South and the Indo-Pacific, the West’s contrasting responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Isreal-Palestine conflict have revealed a hypocrisy that undermines the international order it is seeking to protect and promote.

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks a number of experts how these factors will shape great power competition.

Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps

Written by Hunter Marston

Identifying possible mediators and key stakeholders is critical at this particular juncture, and given the present circumstances we need not let perfect be the enemy of good.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 19, 20249dashline, Hunter Marston, Facing Battlefield Losses, Myanmar’s Junta May Look to ASEAN for Offramps, sit-tat, Myanmar Junta, myanmar military, Burmese, Operation 1027, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, State Administrative Council’s (SAC), Beijing has grown frustrated, Ukraine, Laos chairmanship of ASEAN, India, China, ndonesia’s ‘quiet diplomacy', Arakan Army (AA), Japanese special envoy Yohei Sasakawa, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the SAC, National Unity Government, Three Brotherhood Alliance, Sagaing, Shan, Chin, Chin state, shan state, sagaing state, Mandalay, Naypyidaw, ASEAN’s 2021 Five Point Consensus, 5PC, Jakarta, Burmese society, “troika” model, Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines, Myanmar’s generals, ASEAN-brokered solution, people of Myanmar

In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?

We invite several experts to assess the prospects for stability in 2024.

Editor's Picks, Pacific9DLFebruary 2, 2024In Forum: 2024 — South China Sea at a crossroads, 9DASHLINE, south china sea, SCS, China, Philippine, Philippine navy, The Philippines, vessels, Chinese vessels, freedom of navigation, United States, trade, shipping, US-China competition, escalation, CYBER, ELINA NOOR, non-claimant states, Code of Conduct (CoC), Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations, military, international law, cross-domain, ASEAN, norms of responsible state behaviour, 2015 United Nations Group of Governmental Experts of Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, APILA SANGTAM, Beijing, Vietnam, India, Manila, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), UNCLOS, 2016 Arbitral Award, comprehensive strategic partnership, 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, grey zone, Exclusive Economic Zones, Indonesia, Malaysia, NONG HONG, geopolitical rivalry, naval, military exercises, oil and gas exploitation, COLLIN KOH, unilateral, multilateral, littorals, Second Thomas Shoal, Taiwan, PRATNASHREE BASU, Belt and Road Initiative, strategic autonomy, de-escalation, containment, Japan, rules-based order, UN, United Nations, In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy

Written by Michael Kugelman

Ultimately, like any democratic leader, Muizzu will need to walk a tightrope between foreign policy imperatives and domestic political considerations. A balancing policy abroad will also require one at home.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 1, 20249dashline, Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, India, China, Beijing, Male, pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, “India Out” movement, India Out, India’s military, corruption, Maldivians, coup, Islamist extremism, Hindu, International Yoga Day, New Delhi, hydrographic surveys, Turkey, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lakshadweep, Indian tourists, tourism, economic reliance, trade deficit, Chinese research vessel, intelligence, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, intervened militarily, democracy, development, trade agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives-India relations, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, India First, “India First” policy, cybersecurity, COVID-19 vaccines, trade deal, defence deal, UN climate summit, security cooperation, debt, Climate change, geopolitical, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, nationalism, sovereignty, independence, economic dependence, Chinese influence, hedging policy, hedging, great power competition, anti-Modi, sea lanes, EU, disinformation, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), People’s National Congress (PNC) party

In Forum: 2024 — Taiwan's presidential election

Taiwan's 2024 presidential election was a crucial event, reflecting the island nation's desire for strong self-determination, economic prosperity, and social progress. With China's looming presence, the election focused on maintaining Taiwan's autonomy, addressing economic challenges, and expanding social welfare.

Kashmir’s youthful aspirants: Politics amidst control and change

Written by Dr Mohd Tahir

The post-Article 370 political landscape shifted political discourse within Kashmir from one of self-rule to development. While this shift is a matter of political expediency for local leaders in the context of the restrictive political environment, it has also opened a window of opportunity for many emerging young Kashmiri leaders.

Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities

Written by Dr Rafal Ulatowski

Germany is too weak militarily to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Its military presence satisfies the expectations of the regional middle powers and of the United States while having only a minor adverse impact on Germany’s relations with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 10, 20249DashLine, Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities, Rafal Ulatowski, Germany, Indo-Pacific, European Union, EU, bilateral, regional powers, liberal international order, open markets, China, trade, Chinese-German cooperation, intergovernmental consultations, German-Chinese partnership, Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific, National Security Strategy, Strategy on China, German Navy, German frigate Bayern, German National Security Strategy, German Strategy on China, US-Chinese competition, diversifying, diversification, democratic values, German-Chinese relations, comprehensive strategic partnership, Federation of German Industries (BDI), partner, competitor, Italy, important partner, systemic rival, military presence, Bayern frigate, Operation Rapid Pacific, Australia, symbolic, middle powers, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, democracies, shared values, resilient supply chains, German arms exports, investments, export, Taiwan, Hing Kong, Hong Kong, malaysia, Thailand, FDI, Luxembourg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, de-risking, decoupling, Alliance 90/The Greens, Social Democrats, German companies, sensitive technologies, United Kingdom, Bundeswehr, Zeitenwende, NATO, defence spending, 2 per cent goal, Berlin, United States, confrontation, strategic interests, SIPRI, Russia-Ukrainian war, dependence, great powers, COVID-19 pandemic

BRICS Plus: India’s perspective on the group’s expansion

Written by Rishma Banerjee

Given the broader context of India’s rivalry with China, and its tightrope act of balancing ties between Russia and the West, New Delhi’s support for the six new BRICS members reflects its broader strategic and geopolitical interests.

Editor's Picks9DLDecember 19, 20239dashline, BRICS Plus: India’s perspective on the group’s expansion, BRICS, BRICS Plus, BRICS expansion, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentine, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, eligibility criteria, New Delhi, Global South, geopolitical interests, strategic partnership, bilateral relations, Prime Minister Modi, African Union, regional bloc, AU, foreign policy, international forums, G20, I2U2 grouping, strategic partnerships, Middle East, INSTC, IMEEC, oil, oil imports, energy security, diaspora, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, Gulf region, strategic autonomy, bilateral trade, GCC, BRICS platform, US-India nuclear deal, New Delhi Declaration, Chabahar Port, global economic output, global governance, oil-producing nations, BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism, BRICS Pay digital payment platform

Inconvenient truth — Young and unemployed in China

Written by Anand P. Krishnan

Clearly, unemployment captures the anxieties and disillusionment of youth on both sides of the Himalayan Gap. By the same count, there are no easy solutions for either government to manage, if not completely resolve, this crisis.

Emerging Issues9DLDecember 11, 2023Inconvenient truth — Young and unemployed in China, Anand P. Krishnan, China, PRC, Beijing, A4 protests, White Paper Protests, urban protests, zero-COVID policy, post-pandemic recovery, pandemic, COVID-19, real estate sector, US restrictions, technology transfer, Chinese entities, tech sector, investor confidence, Communist Party of China, CPC, India, unemployment, unemployment statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, employment crisis, Chinese leadership, economic data, university graduates, lower-paid work, remote areas, private sector, massive layoffs, hiring quotas, Chinese graduates, foreign universities, students, education abroad, university education, employers, employment market, job market, graduates, education, manufacturing, service sectors, blue-collar workforce, livestream sales, ride-hailing services, flexible employment, popular narrative, economic downturn, fiscal reforms, raising wages, social protection, pensions, medical insurance, higher welfare spending, Common Prosperity, Xi Jinping, welfarism, New Deal, human capital, disillusionment, involution, neijuan, tang ping, ‘Lying Flat’, ‘Let it Rot’, bai lan, hypercompetitive culture, culture of overwork, protests, economic transition, pro-market reforms, globalisation, socio-economic challenge, state-society relations, policymakers, balour, youth, young people, young graduates, 9DASHLINE

BIMSTEC revival: A compelling alternative to the BRI in the Bay of Bengal

Written by Eve Register

It will be important for BIMSTEC to learn from the mistakes of the BRI if it is to work as a viable alternative for countries in the Bay of Bengal region.

How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Thomas Wilkins

Despite dangers closer to home and straitened finances, London does appear to be committed to the region, even if the implementation of some aspects of its new strategic approach remains patchy.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLNovember 30, 2023How the UK supports regional order in the Indo-Pacific, Dr Thomas Wilkins, 9Dashline, Great Britain, France, EU, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, resident power, minilateral engagements, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Integrated Review, Integrated Review Refresh, EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Global Britain, liberal international order, Royal Navy, multilateral military exercises, Development Assistance, China, Japan, India, ‘over the horizon’ partner, James Cleverly, networks and grids, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Australia, Singapore, TALISMAN SABRE military exercises, UK-Japan Strategic Partnership, British Defence Singapore Support Unit, AUKUS, Global Combat Aircraft Programme, Partnership for the Blue Pacific, Five Power Defence Arrangements, New Zealand, Malaysia, ASEAN, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement toward Transpacific Partnership