The illusion of reform: Hun Manet’s Cambodia, three years on

Written by Vanly Seng

Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold on power.

Understanding Nepal’s pro-monarchy momentum

Written by Amit Ranjan

Many Nepalese are frustrated and disenchanted with the current political situation and poor government performance. But returning to a constitutional monarchy would be a regressive, authoritarian step, not a path toward democracy.

Between Trump and turmoil: South Korea’s balancing act

Written by Dr Wongi Choe

A more fundamental security challenge may emerge from the Trump administration’s evolving defence posture, which could reorient US global military priorities, including troop deployments in South Korea, to better deter China.

East Asia, Power Politics, Most Popular9DLJune 19, 20259DASHLINE, Dr. Wongi Choe, Between Trump and turmoil: South Korea’s balancing act, South Korea, Trump, Yoon Suk Yeol, ICBM, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, DPRK, Russia, Putin, Kim Jong-un, Pyongyang, Seoul

Sheikh Hasina’s political demise and Bangladesh’s foreign policy in the Yunus era

Written by Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan

Bangladesh’s historical pro-India stance under Hasina is likely to diminish under the new interim administration due to Touhid’s critical views on India over issues like alleged border killings and the need to balance geopolitical partners.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLOctober 8, 2024Sheikh Hasina’s political demise and Bangladesh’s foreign policy in the Yunus era, Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, Muhammad Yunus, China, India, Myanmar, Protests

The fragility of democracy in Thailand and the return of the Shinawatra family to power

Written by Aniello Iannone

The persistent influence of the military and entrenched oligarchies continues to subvert the will of the electorate, creating a hybrid political system where democratic processes are overshadowed by authoritarian interventions.

Southeast Asia, Power Politics9DLOctober 3, 20249DASHLINE, The fragility of democracy in Thailand and the return of the Shinawatra family to power, Aniello Iannone, Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Paethongtharn Shinawatra, Constitutional Court of Thailand, Thai, Thailand, Move Forward Party (MFP), progressive, v, monarchy, Thai politics, democracy in Thailand, entrenchment, oligarchies, military, Military coups, Shinawatra family, populism, Shinawatra clan, polarisation, democratic representation, Thai-style democracy, Future Forward Party (FFP), General Prayuth Chan-ocha, military junta, military regime, Thai Rak Thai (TRT), 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, autocratic, privileged bureaucratic class, impoverished working class, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, National Council for Peace and Order, 2017 constitution, Thai Senate, military-backed elites, 1997 “people constitution”, hybrid regime, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, Pita Limjaroenrat, charismatic, Srettha Thavisin, Pheu Thai Party, establishment, United Thai Nation Party, military-oligarchic alliance, pro-democracy reformists, generational divide, hybrid political system, cleavages

Sri Lanka’s potential political realignment

Written by Dr Neil DeVotta

Ultimately, given the dire economic and debt situation facing the island, the victorious candidate and his party will have little choice but to balance relations with major powers like India, China, and the United States.

Power Politics, South Asia9DLJuly 31, 20249DASHLINE, Sri Lanka’s potential political realignment, Neil DeVotta, Sri Lanka, Sri Lankan economy, presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa family, Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism, majoritarian, fiscal stability, balance of payments crisis, United National Party, Ranil Wickremesinghe, taxes, austerity, IMF program, World Bank, food insecure, poverty, Central Bank, debt restructuring, multilateral, bilateral, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, corruption, ‘Ranil-Rajapaksa’ regime, dynasty, Sajith Premadasa, Samagi Jana Balawegaya, SJB, JVP, Janata Vimukthi Peramuna, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, UNP, IMF, SLPP, creditors, Marxist, insurgencies, ethnic, Sri Lankan Civil War, Sri Lanka’s civil war, human rights violations, Tamils, geopolitics, United States, Australia, Japan, pro-China, China, White Elephant, Chinese loans, Hambantota Port, Mattala International Airport, Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, multi-aligned foreign policy, multi-aligned, India, ethnocracy

Taiwan’s pro-China opposition in Congress pass undemocratic laws that trigger mass protest

Written by Fang-Yu Chen and Ya-Han Chen

In short, this reform makes the LY a super-powerful institution that raises concerns about undermining the separation of power and thus checks and “imbalances”.

Changing the status quo: Establishing a strategic connect in India - South Korean ties

Written by Abhishek Sharma

As both countries explore new areas of opportunities beyond the traditional emphasis on trade and commerce, emerging technologies and defence have particularly captured the attention of both governments.

Power Politics9DLJuly 4, 20249DASHLINE, Yoon Suk-yeol, Modi, Narendra Modi, Korea, india, india-korea, strategy, IOR, Indo-Pacific region, regional defence, G20, Establishing a strategic connect in India - South Korean ties

Leadership transition: A curious moment in Singapore’s politics

Written by Pradeep Krishnan

Post-independence politics in Singapore has known a few watershed moments; each noteworthy for chipping away at the PAP’s dominance.

Power Politics, Southeast Asia9DLApril 15, 20249DASHLINE, Pradeep Krishnan, Leadership transition: a curious moment in Singapore’s politics, Singapore, Leadership transition, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Lee Kuan Yew, Lawrence Wong, COVID-19 pandemic, People’s Action Party (PAP), Leadership successions, island-republic, illiberal brand of democracy, illiberal democracy, democracy, political stability, economic vitality, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, non-Chinese prime minister, integrity, clean governance, governance, corruption, Senior Minister S. Iswaran, political courtroom drama, National Development Minister Teh Cheang Wan, conflict of interest, inequality, inequality in Singapore, Gini Coefficient, financial hub, Lee Cheng Hui, Tan Chuan-Jin, parliament, extramarital affair, Jamus Lim, opposition, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Workers’ Party (WP), Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Goh Chok Tong, General Elections, gerrymandering, political and civil liberties, mandate, Post-independence politics in Singapore, opposition leader J.B. Jeyaretnam, Group Representation Constituency (GRC), city-state

Beijing’s Taiwan policy after the island’s elections

Written by Dr Lin Gang

Despite the developmental gap between the two societies, Beijing believes its preferential policies towards newcomers from Taiwan, particularly the youth, are appealing and productive.

East Asia, Power Politics9DLMarch 15, 2024Beijing’s Taiwan policy after the island’s elections, 9DASHLINE, Dr. Lin Gang, Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, Democratic Progressive Party, Kuomintang, KMT, Hou Yu-ih, Taiwan People’s Party, Ko Wen-je, TPP, Beijing, Anti-Secession Law, Taiwan Strait, COVID-19

Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling

Written by Varenya Singh and Chetan Rana

China's persistent rejection of the tribunal's jurisdiction and ruling, along with its continuous assertion of sovereignty, underscores the limitations of international legal mechanisms in addressing deep-rooted geopolitical disputes.

Pacific, Power Politics9DLMarch 11, 20249DASHLINE, Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling, Chetan Rana, Varenya Singh, South China Sea, Cold War, Europe, West Asia, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Philippines, South China Sea (SCS), SCS, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, map, standard map, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), littoral states, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines Coast Guard, Sierra Madre, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly Islands, Filipino, grey-zone activities, non-military vessels, territorial claims, maritime militia, Beijing, Manila, vessels, maritime territorial disputes, arbitral proceedings, arbitration, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), PCA, PCA award of 2016, PCA ruling, China’s nine-dash line, nine-dash line, Annex VII, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, sovereignty, delimitation, artificially built islands, delimitation of state boundaries, Article 9, unilateral, fishermen, marine resources, fishing, 12 nautical mile, extractive, purely extractive activity, self-dependent economic activity, maritime fishing zones, coral reefs, turtle, clam, international law, dispute, ASEAN, Code of Conduct (CoC), COC, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., non-claimant states, Australia, Japan, United States, us, USA, militarising, military exercises, sea lanes, environmental crisis, securitisation, marine diversity, sustainability, realpolitik, Israel-Hamas conflict

Moving forward while moving backwards: More of the same in Thai politics

Written by William J. Jones

In May 2023, the Thai general election saw a political ‘bomb’ drop on Thailand. The progressive reformist Move Forward Party placed first, taking 151 seats in the 500-member parliament, setting the stage for a head-on collision with Thailand’s conservative establishment.

Power Politics, Southeast Asia9DLMarch 6, 20249DashLine, Moving forward while moving backwards: More of the same in Thai politics, WILLIAM J. JONES, Thailand, Bangkok, Thai general election, Move Forward Party, MFP, Article 112, lese-majeste law, Thai Constitutional Court, constitutional court verdicts, Thaksin Shinawatra, conservative elite, lawfare, Thai Election Commission, Pita Limjaroenrat, Theerayut Suwannakaysorn, policy platform, reformist policy platform, National Anti-Corruption Commission, NACC, Supreme Court’s Division for Political Office Holders, lifetime ban from politics, political rights, Pannika Wanich, Future Forward Party, conservative establishment, Thai opposition, socio-political reform, United Thai Nation, Palang Pracharat, Puea Thai government formation, Puea Thai, money politics, patron-client relationships, clientelism, cronyism, backroom deals, parole, Thai Rak Thai, People’s Power Party, Yingluck Shinawatra, middle-class urban voters, populist people’s party, Thai electorate, military junta, former military junta, Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight

Written by Aniello Iannone

As Indonesia stands at this pivotal crossroads, the decisions made by its electorate will carry profound consequences not only for the nation's democratic fabric but also for the country's reputation internationally.

Power Politics9DLFebruary 12, 20249dashline, Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight, Aniello Iannone, ANIELLO IANNONE, Indonesia, Joko Widodo, Jokowi, election, economic elites, economic development, industrial development, workers' rights, 2020 Omnibus Law, ITE (Electronic Transaction) law, political elite, political dynasty, Griban Rakabuming Raka, ideological divide, Prabowo Subianto, Gerindra, Minister of Defence, opposition parties, majority in parliament, democracy, identity politics, hardline Islamic faction, Soeharto, Soeharto’s regime, voter trust, military regime, political dynasties, civil resistance, Sukarnoputri Megawati, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDI-P, Orissa Putri Hapsari, Kaesang Pangarep, PSI, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Democratic Party, democratic standards, vice-presidential candidacy, legislative reform, Anwar Usman, Islamic extremism, human rights abuses, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, PKB, Minister of Education, Jakarta, gubernatorial election, Rizieq Shihab, Muslim Defense Front, extremist Islamic movement, Saudi Wahhabi orientation, Bachtiar Nasir, Action 212 movement, Ahok, Felix Siauw, integrity pact, conservative ulama groups, Ijtima Ulama, radical Muslim constituents, moderate electorate, Ganjar Pranowo, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, PDIP, Puan Mahari, Wadas village, democratic values, political alliances, political stability, democratic trajectory, voters

Two untold obstacles to Taiwan’s democratic consolidation beyond China’s ambition

Written by Sanho Chung

Besides how the election outcomes affect cross-strait relations, perhaps what we should also look at in Taiwan’s democracy is how much dedication the Taiwanese still have to their system regardless of the difficulties.

Power Politics9DLFebruary 7, 2024Two untold obstacles to Taiwan’s democratic consolidation beyond China’s ambition, Sanho Chung, 9dashline, Taiwan, Taiwan Election 2024, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Republic of China ROC, democracy, nationalism, local autonomy, partisan polarisation, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), status quo, Cross-Strait relations, disinformation

Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy

Written by Michael Kugelman

Ultimately, like any democratic leader, Muizzu will need to walk a tightrope between foreign policy imperatives and domestic political considerations. A balancing policy abroad will also require one at home.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 1, 20249dashline, Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, India, China, Beijing, Male, pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, “India Out” movement, India Out, India’s military, corruption, Maldivians, coup, Islamist extremism, Hindu, International Yoga Day, New Delhi, hydrographic surveys, Turkey, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lakshadweep, Indian tourists, tourism, economic reliance, trade deficit, Chinese research vessel, intelligence, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, intervened militarily, democracy, development, trade agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives-India relations, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, India First, “India First” policy, cybersecurity, COVID-19 vaccines, trade deal, defence deal, UN climate summit, security cooperation, debt, Climate change, geopolitical, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, nationalism, sovereignty, independence, economic dependence, Chinese influence, hedging policy, hedging, great power competition, anti-Modi, sea lanes, EU, disinformation, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), People’s National Congress (PNC) party

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

New Zealand votes for change, but to what end?

Written by Lucas Knotter

Labour promised a lot of change but apparently did not feel it had to back such promises up with meaningful policy reform. It is implausible that New Zealand’s new conservative government will not fervently commit to such reforms.

In the Maldives, domestic politics is causing China to lose ground

Written by Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy

There is less space for China’s diplomatic manoeuvres if the next Maldivian government embraces a minimalist interaction with China and chooses alternative Indo-Pacific partners to deter any Chinese misadventures.