Leadership transition: A curious moment in Singapore’s politics
Leadership transition: A curious moment in Singapore’s politics
WRITTEN BY PRADEEP KRISHNAN
14 February 2024
Leadership transitions can be tricky affairs. In an emotional address at his party’s annual convention last November, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong — son of founding leader Lee Kuan Yew — announced his intention to step down by November 2024. His soon-to-be successor Lawrence Wong, the current minister for finance, gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic for his efforts in leading the nation’s pandemic taskforce.
Rocky and uncertain leadership transitions have not been the preserve of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which has held power since 1959. Leadership successions in the 'island-republic' are typically opaque yet carefully orchestrated affairs — boring, almost. The party has regularly argued that its unique, illiberal brand of democracy guarantees political stability and economic vitality, ensuring the country is led by the right people, for the right reasons.
Yet, uncertainty is what has ensued this time. The process of identifying Lee’s successor began in 2016, as the state-controlled mainstream media initially identified six candidates. Lawrence Wong was not yet in the mix. Lee’s decision to allow the fourth generation of the PAP’s leadership to determine his successor resulted in what was widely considered an unusual selection: Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, who boasts an impressive record in the public service, but is ultimately not known for his charisma. After a few questionable incidents — one of which involved the controversial claim that Singapore was not ready for a non-Chinese prime minister — Heng’s public image appeared irreparably damaged. He removed himself from the equation in April 2021, citing his age, throwing the race for succession wide open yet again. Lee, soon to turn 72, appeared to grow increasingly frail in the meantime.
An unusual moment of vulnerability for Singapore’s ruling party
2023 was a difficult year for the PAP overall. The party prides itself on principles of integrity and honesty, which its all-white uniform is meant to symbolise. Indeed, its government has developed a reputation worldwide for clean governance. Its leaders are the highest paid in the world, part of the justification for which is to discourage corruption.
Post-independence politics in Singapore has known a few watershed moments; each noteworthy for chipping away at the PAP’s dominance.
In the past year, however, the party has had to weather scandals unlike those it typically experiences. In July 2023, former Senior Minister S. Iswaran was arrested as part of a corruption investigation. In January 2024, he decided to plead not guilty to all 27 charges brought against him, commencing what is likely to be the most intense political courtroom drama Singaporeans have been served in some time. The last such case to occur was in 1986 when former National Development Minister Teh Cheang Wan was investigated by the republic’s corruption watchdog for allegedly receiving bribes. Teh took his own life before he could be formally charged.
Further controversy ensued in 2023, as it became public knowledge that two senior ministers had rented black and white colonial-era bungalows at what many considered favourable rates. Though a formal review — initiated and conducted by the government itself — declared the absence of any conflict of interest, the optics were not great and prompted heated discussions of inequality in Singapore. For context, after taxes and transfers, Singapore’s Gini Coefficient stands at roughly 0.38. While cities, and financial hubs in particular, veer towards greater inequality than their countries — e.g. New York’s Gini Coefficient stands at 0.55 — this figure accounts only for income from work, thus reflecting an underestimation.
The trouble did not end there. In July 2023, PAP Members of Parliament Lee Cheng Hui and Tan Chuan-Jin — the latter was also speaker of parliament and, at one stage, touted as a candidate for prime minister — resigned from the party, after it was revealed they were having an extramarital affair. The news became public shortly after then-Speaker Tan was heard directing an expletive at opposition Member of Parliament Jamus Lim, following the latter’s address.
Thus, Lawrence Wong is set to lead the party — during what may be considered an unusually turbulent moment in the party’s history — in the country’s next general election, which must be held by November 2025.
Perhaps talk of turbulence is premature. As Singaporeans took to the polls to elect their president in September 2023, former PAP candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam emerged victorious in a landslide victory that surprised most analysts.
Still, owing to a curious set of circumstances, it is safe to say the PAP faces some uncertainty — if by its own majestic standards. In the previous general election, its popular vote share slumped from 70 per cent in 2015 to 61 per cent in 2020, as the Workers’ Party (WP) — the leading opposition force — gained ground by winning four more seats in parliament than the six it held previously. In the wake of its own controversies and departures — one of which closely followed the extramarital affair within the PAP’s ranks — the party now holds eight seats.
Leadership transitions, moreover, are historically associated with a slight dip in the PAP’s support. In the 1991 general election — former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong’s first election upon assuming the reigns from Lee Kuan Yew — the PAP’s vote share dipped to 61 per cent, from 63 per cent in 1988. And likewise, when current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong took over from Goh Chok Tong. New prime ministers in the past, moreover, have had a longer runway to make an impression on the public than what Lawrence Wong looks set to have if the General Elections were to be held in late 2024 or early 2025.
Withering — at long last — one-party dominance in Singapore?
The PAP has been in power since 1959. It heralds the longest one-party dominant regime. True, the quality of democracy in the republic is questionable at best. Elections are arguably free, though unfair, as gerrymandering and a host of restrictions placed on political and civil liberties render the playing field far from even.
When the party encountered a dip in its popular vote share in 1991 — over three decades ago — some political observers foresaw the gradual yet eventual dissipation of one-party dominance in Singapore. Despite this, the PAP has remained incredibly resilient, even amid periods of crisis. When founding leader Lee Kuan Yew passed away in 2015, the party returned to power with a resounding mandate, gaining 70 per cent of the popular vote.
Yet — as chinks in the PAP’s armour and self-image are, arguably, growing visible — the present may be different. As Lee Hsien Loong prepares to step down as prime minister, it is worthwhile to also remember the political capital — as the son of Lee Kuan Yew, a national icon par excellence — he would take with him. Make no mistake: the PAP will continue to credibly lay claim to Singapore’s historical and economic successes, which remain the envy of many worldwide. However, as the Lee family’s political legacy recedes ever so slowly into the distance, Singapore will likely begin to play host to new political imaginings.
Post-independence politics in Singapore has known a few watershed moments; each noteworthy for chipping away at the PAP’s dominance. For instance, in 1981, when the late opposition leader J.B. Jeyaretnam won the WP its first seat, breaking the PAP’s monopoly on parliament. Or in 2011, when the WP won a Group Representation Constituency (GRC) — a party block voting mechanism — for the first time, winning five seats on top of the one it previously held. In 2020, the opposition party won another GRC, adding four more seats to its total, marking yet another significant stride. Another such moment in the upcoming general election would hint strongly at the city-state’s progression, steadily but surely, towards a more competitive political landscape.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Pradeep Krishnan is a PhD researcher at the University of St. Gallen, where he studies political psychology, conspiracy theory beliefs and public attitudes towards experts in Europe. He retains a keen interest in political discourse in Singapore. Image credit: Venus Major/Unsplash.