Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight
Indonesia's election landscape: Dynasty, Islam, and human rights in the spotlight
WRITTEN BY ANIELLO IANNONE
12 February 2024
On 14 February, Indonesia — the world's third-largest democracy — will hold elections for a new president, concluding Joko Widodo's (Jokowi) tenure.
During his eight-year tenure, Jokowi has transformed from the “man of the people” to a “man of contradiction” due to his policies and reforms, which have favoured economic elites at the expense of the general population. Emphasising economic and industrial development, his government has limited workers' rights with the labour law reform incorporated into the 2020 Omnibus Law. There have also been concerns about freedom of expression due to the ITE (Electronic Transaction) law. Jokowi’s transformation into a member of the country’s political elite is exemplified by the attempt to establish a political dynasty, evident in his son Griban Rakabuming Raka’s candidacy for the vice presidency.
Previous elections were marked by a clear ideological divide between Jokowi and former Lieutenant General Prabowo Subianto, the founder of the country’s third-largest party, Gerindra. The upcoming election is even more complex. Jokowi’s unprecedented appointment of his political opponent Prabowo as the Minister of Defence in his administration helped him secure an unequivocal majority in the parliament. However, the move also weakened the opposition and raised questions about the current state of democracy in the country.
Whoever wins will have to address a nation divided not only by identity politics but also by the rise of the hardline Islamic faction. Moreover, the grip of political dynasties that have firmly led the country since the fall of Soeharto’s authoritarian regime in 1998, poses a significant challenge to Indonesian democracy by contributing to the erosion of voter trust.
Dynasties and political immorality
In 1998, the end of the Soeharto regime marked the beginning of Indonesia's transition to democracy. However, despite the shift from a military/authoritarian regime to a democracy, the oppressive grip of political dynasties has drawn significant civil resistance from the populace. While the existence of political dynasties is not a novel phenomenon, its prominence in Indonesia has become a scandal. The widespread use of social media platforms such as X and Facebook has played a pivotal role in bringing this issue to public attention.
As Indonesia stands at this pivotal crossroads, the decisions made by its electorate will carry profound consequences not only for the nation's democratic fabric but also for the country's reputation internationally.
From the era of Soekarno (1945-1967), through Sukarnoputri Megawati (2001-2002) and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004-2014), to Jokowi (2014-2024), political dynasties have exerted dominance in Indonesian politics. For instance, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Soekarno's daughter, has served as the Secretary of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) for years. Her daughter, Puan, holds the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Puan's daughter, Orissa Putri Hapsari, is listed as a legislative candidate for PDI-P. In the case of the current president, Jokowi, although much attention has been directed towards his son Gibran, his third child, Kaesang Pangarep, currently chairs the PSI party (an offshoot of the PDI-P youth wing).
Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who served two terms, positioned his son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono as the leader of the Democratic Party. As asserted by Prabowo, political dynasties have been a constant element in Indonesia’s national and local political processes, and have undermined the country’s democracy.
A stark illustration of how political dynasties can affect democratic standards can be seen in the candidacy of Joko Widodo's son, Gibran, who previously served as the Mayor of Solo and later ran as vice president alongside Prabowo. His ascension to the vice-presidential candidacy necessitated a legislative reform, particularly the amendment of the age eligibility criteria for candidacy. This modification, facilitated through the Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court Anwar Usman — Gibran’s uncle and Jokowi's brother-in-law — lowered the age requirement from 40 to 35 years, with the stipulation that candidates must have completed at least one term as mayor. This morally questionable act was orchestrated ad-hoc to facilitate Gibran, and consequently, Jokowi, to sustain their political presence in Indonesia.
Hardline Islam and human rights issues
The influence of political dynasties is not the sole issue in the upcoming election; the voters also face the challenge of selecting the ‘least perilous’ candidate given concerns about Islamic extremism and human rights abuses.
Anies Rasyid Baswedan, the National Awakening Party’s (PKB) candidate and a former Minister of Education, as well as ex-governor of Jakarta, boasts an impressive background. A recognised academic and the former Rector of Paramadina University, Anies is an intellectual figure. Nevertheless, his proximity to a segment adhering to a more stringent interpretation of Islam prompts scrutiny.
This alignment with the more extremist faction of Indonesian Islam became evident during his gubernatorial election in Jakarta in 2017 — notably with the endorsement of figures such as Rizieq Shihab, the leader of the Muslim Defense Front, an extremist Islamic movement with a Saudi Wahhabi orientation. Anies also received support from ulema like Bachtiar Nasir, a key figure in the success of the Islam-inspired Action 212 movement of 2016 that demanded the arrest of the former governor of Jakarta, Ahok, for blasphemy.
Anies has refrained from openly criticising extremist leaders like Felix Siauw and has, in some instances, endorsed certain initiatives without significant opposition. The recent endorsement of the integrity pact with conservative ulama groups from Ijtima Ulama, of which Rizieq Shihab was also a part, was a calculated move to secure votes from more radical Muslim constituents. Nevertheless, this strategy may prove to be a double-edged sword for Anies, potentially alienating the more moderate electorate.
On the other hand, Ganjar Pranowo, the candidate from the PDI-P, after triumphing in the internal party contest for the candidacy (against Puan Mahari), has cultivated an image as the "first Jokowi" — a man of the people who engages with the public at markets and appeals to the common population. However, Ganjar's political stance is contradictory: although he presents himself as a man of the people, he is embroiled in ongoing cases of human rights violations and the eviction of 500 people from Wadas village in the construction of a dam project in 2023. The use of force by both the police and the military to suppress protests from the people opposing the dam construction is still regarded as a contradiction in Ganjar's tenure as governor of Central Java.
The third candidate, Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra Party, is a multifaceted figure within Indonesian politics. As Soeharto’s son-in-law, he solidified his military career and attained the rank of lieutenant general. But he is also implicated in alleged human rights abuses and war crimes during the pro-democracy movements in 1998 and Timor-Leste. He has aspired to the presidency for several decades and ran unsuccessfully four times between 1998 and 2019.
Following his electoral losses, and capitalising on social tensions in Jakarta, Prabowo strategically secured a pivotal position as the Minister of Defence in Jokowi's government in 2019. This effectively neutralised opposition forces. Historical patterns appear to be repeating themselves, with Jokowi openly aligning himself with Prabowo, which is particularly relevant as Jokowi’s son is Probowo’s running mate.
However, Prabowo remains a contentious figure, and his candidacy raises profound questions regarding his suitability and acceptability within a political context that ostensibly promotes democratic values and respect for human rights. The future dynamics between the PDI-P and Jokowi in the event of Prabowo's victory remain uncertain. Nonetheless, it is conceivable that the PDI-P leadership would adopt a staunchly oppositional stance in parliament, rather than forming alliances with Gerindra this time.
An election for democracy
In the upcoming election this month, February 2024, Indonesia’s electorate will choose its next leader at a crucial moment in the country’s history. Democratic values are seriously threatened by the political dynasties' widespread influence. The integrity of the democratic processes is called into question by moral risks and the fluid nature of political alliances. The uncertain dynamics between the PDI-P and Jokowi in the event of Prabowo's victory suggest potential challenges to political stability.
The latest poll paints a vivid picture, with Prabowo leading at 42 per cent, holding a substantial 20 per cent lead over Anies and Ganjar. This underscores the gravity of the situation, indicating a potential shift in the country's leadership that could reshape its democratic trajectory. As Indonesia stands at this pivotal crossroads, the decisions made by its electorate will carry profound consequences not only for the nation's democratic fabric but also for the country's reputation internationally. As voters head to the polls, they must carefully consider the challenges that lie ahead to promote and protect democratic values and human rights.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Aniello Iannone is an Indonesian expert in the fields of Political Science and International Relations. He serves as a lecturer in the Department of Government Studies, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences at Diponegoro University. Aniello's primary research interests lie in Political Science and International Relations in the Southeast Asian region. Specifically, Aniello pays special attention to domestic politics in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines; ASEAN in the international context; human rights; and international political economy. Image credit: Unsplash/Rizky Rahmat Hidayat.