decoupling — 9DASHLINE

In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

China and Australia appear to have patched things up, and more conciliatory tones are even heard about relations with the United States following Xi’s visit in November. In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE asks a number of experts to weigh in on whether we can expect improving ties to continue through 2024.

Editor's Picks9DLJanuary 12, 20249DashLine, In Forum 2024: China’s policy towards the West, China, Xi Jinping, dual circulation, Chinese Dual Circulation Strategy, trade, Beijing, Western democracies, Australia, United States, In Forum, FOREIGN POLICY, Selina Ho, Great power rivalry, Joe Biden, APEC summit, Chinese diplomacy, the West, wolf warrior, Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, the Philippines, Vietnam, security, sanctions, Chinese economy, Chinese society, South China Sea, Taiwan, JEAN CHRISTOPHER MITTELSTAEDT, self-reliance, geopolitical, China's strategic flexibility, green technology, electric vehicles, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, smile diplomacy, Susan Shirk, overreach, strategic pause, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Deng Xiaoping, China's global influence, G20 summit in Bali, China's de-risking agenda, raw materials, export, supply chains, de-risking, decoupling, open markets, Russia, Hamas, anti-coercion, dual diplomacy, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), China’s soft approach, ZICHEN WANG, Wang Yi, APEC, APEC meeting, high-quality domestic development, Japan, South Korea, european union, Marxism, ideology, Gina Raimondo, enemy, Washington, San Francisco, bilateral, unilateral, zero-sum game, peaceful development, ANDREW CHUBB, China-US relationship, Canberra, Albanese government, Anthony Albanese, In Forum: 2024 — China’s policy towards the West

Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities

Written by Dr Rafal Ulatowski

Germany is too weak militarily to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Its military presence satisfies the expectations of the regional middle powers and of the United States while having only a minor adverse impact on Germany’s relations with China.

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Australia-China relations: Where to now?

Written by Elena Collinson

After seven years marked by bullying and heavy-handed tactics by Beijing, episodes of diplomatic inelegance by Canberra, and the asperity of mutual criticism, Australia-China relations have tentatively shifted to a more normalised state.

Which way for the Belt and Road?

Written by Francesco Giovanni Lizzi

Taking stock of the international context surrounding the summit, it is apparent that the BRI has been confronted by a number of challenges. President Xi's keynote speech coincided with mounting scepticism, especially from Europe and North America, concerning the prospective viability of the initiative.

Emerging Issues9DLNovember 16, 20239dashline, Which way for the Belt and Road?, Francesco Giovanni Lizzi, Belt and Road Initiative, Belt and Road, BRI, beijing, Xi Jinping, BRI Forum, 3rd BRI Forum, keynote speech, mega-infrastructure endeavours, China, PRC, Global Development Initiative, GDI, mounting scepticism, Europe, North America, economic growth, BRI debts, construction flaws, corruption concerns, BRI partner countries, ideological confrontation, geopolitical rivalry, bloc politics, de-risking agenda, Washington, Brussels, Chinese economic coercion, PRC leadership, unilateral sanctions, decoupling, supply chain disruption, BRI summits, EU institutions, connectivity, G7, environmental issues, corruption issues, procurement issues, infrastructure projects, Chinese loan commitments, environmentally sustainable development, livelihood assistance projects, vocational education cooperation, Luban Workshops, Green Investment Principles, Belt and Road Conference on Science and Technology Exchange, digital advancements, BRI framework, Global Initiative for Artificial Intelligence Governance, overseas coal projects, win-win cooperation model, win-win, debt trap diplomacy, trans-Caspian international transportation corridor, Kazakhstan, economic commitment, green and digital BRI ventures, multi-faceted foreign policy, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilisation Initiative, education, sustainable energy, poverty alleviation

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations

Written by Dr William Hurst

The bet that security fears could be addressed to allow the resumption of progress on trade did not pay off. China lost a significant opportunity to re-open more fully to the world and deepen its economic ties with arguably its most important trading partner (the Eurozone).

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 31, 20239DashLine, Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations, William Hurst, China, EU, China-Europe relations, diplomacy, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK, Lu Shaye, sovereignty, post-Soviet states, Ukraine, Chinese National Chairman Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, trade, most favoured nation, human rights, President Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, policy of de-linking, decoupling, de-risking, United States, Taiwan, North Korea, ideology, values, global power, security interests, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, NATO, neutrality, Vladimir Putin, Japan, balance of power, India, the West, aircraft carrier, China-Ukraine relations, Beijing, Brussels, strategic signalling, Paris, US State Department, President Biden, Moscow, Kyiv, peace negotiations, peace talks, sanctions, de-escalation, Eurozone

Forum: The G7 Hiroshima Summit

9DASHLINE asks a select group of experts to assess the outcomes from the recent G7 Summit held in Japan.

Editor's Picks9DLMay 25, 20239dashline, Forum: The G7 Summit, G7, DR SEBASTIAN MASLOW, ELISABETH WINTER, DR ZSUZSA ANNA FERENCZY, Hiroshima Summit, India, Japan, south korea, Russia, Ukraine, China, diplomatic leadership, Hiroshima, Fumio Kishida, nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelenskyy, Russia-Ukraine war, Tokyo, Global South, Indonesia, Brazil, Indo-Pacific, regional security concerns, rules-based liberal international order, de-risking, de-coupling, geostrategic rebalancing, economic security, economic resilience, decoupling, national security, global supply chains, weaponised interdependence, coordination platform on economic coercion, free international order, Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission, EU, beijing, Taiwan, Taiwan Strait, People’s Republic of China, international community, G7 Leaders’ Statement on Ukraine, 12-point Ukraine peace plan, international sanctions, Leader’s Statement on Economic Resilience and Economic Security, defensive trade countermeasures

Forging a G7-G20 nexus: Cooperation between Japan and India

Written by Dr Kei Koga and Dr Karthik Nachiappan

Rather than focusing on divergences between Japan and India or between the G7 and the G20, the areas of convergence (such as energy and food security, inflation, and climate) should be turned into functional linkages.

Power Politics9DLMay 15, 20239DashLine, Forging a G7-G20 nexus: cooperation between Japan and India, Kei Koga, Karthik Nachiappan, G7, G20, India, Japan, Japan's G7 presidency, India's G20 presidency, Tokyo, Delhi, Multilateralism, G7 summit in Hiroshima, G20 summit in Delhi, international order based on the rule of law, international order, China, Japan-India relations, Beijing, US, Cold War, East China Sea, geopolitics, territorial integrity, Ladakh, nuclear non-proliferation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia's war, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Hiroshima, Russia’s nuclear threat, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, international financial institutions, development cooperation, maritime security, peacekeeping, protectionism, inflationary trends, Big Tech, decoupling, India Stack, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Google, Meta, Amazon, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war, Global South, non-aligned movement (NAM), debt relief, food security, energy security, climate change, pandemic recovery, post-pandemic recovery, climate transition, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), climate adaptation, supply chain, decarbonisation, COP27, inflation

In Conversation with Agathe Demarais

9DASHLINE recently had the pleasure of speaking with Agathe Demarais to discuss her timely and important book Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests.

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Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea

Written by Dr Chang-min Lee

Although both allies of the US, Japan and Korea are forced to compete with each other economically, which is exacerbated by persisting political problems between Tokyo and Seoul.

East Asia9DLApril 10, 20239DashLine, Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea, CHANG-MIN LEE, White House, US economic security strategy, economic security, President Joe Biden, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, China, US-China competition for hegemony, US-China competition, Japan, Korea, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, decoupling, technology, semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, chip makers, SK Hynix, electric vehicles, North America, Russia, automakers, core minerals, US-China rivalry, COVID-19 pandemic, vulnerability of global supply chains, supply chain security, Reshoring Initiative, foreign direct investment, Near-shoring, Mexico, American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, small yard, high fence, friend-shoring, AI, quantum technology, allies, technology gap, Economic Security Promotion Act, Kishida government, Biden administration, chip alliance, IBM, Rapidus, Toyota, Denso, Sony, NEC, NTT, Softbank, Kioxia, Toshiba, Tokyo Electron, high-tech, TSMC, Taiwan, export, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Human Rights Violation Act, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, foreign trade, friendly nations, National Security Council, pro-China

2023: EU decoupling from China?

Such a move would suggest that Brussels was giving in to Washington’s demands instead of pursuing its own objectives. Perhaps counterintuitively, a decoupling from China would therefore be at odds with European calls for strategic autonomy.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 18, 20239dashline, 2023: EU decoupling from China, Agathe Demarais, Moritz Rudolf, Maximilian Mayer, Luke Patey, Angela Stanzel, EU, Europe, European Union, China, Beijing, US-China trade conflict, decoupling, strategic autonomy, trade partners, goods shortages, EU imports from China, Washington, Brussels, PRC, party-state, Chinese market, Chinese investments, capacity building, hegemonic competition, Biden Administration, technological development, interdependence, emerging technologies, economic sanctions, European economy, European diplomacy, minilateral, anti-coercion instrument, decoupling debate, European industries, green supply chains, electric vehicle production, green exports, European welfare, European decision-makers, European common market, economic integration, technological integration, Russia-Ukraine war, geostrategic dependencies, critical raw materials, green transition, digital transition, alternative partnerships, mutual interdependency, Taiwan-Strait

Alignment without alliance: China’s growing ambivalence to Putin’s war

Written by Lunting Wu and Kamil Matusiewicz

Functional, strategic and normative factors have shaped Beijing’s growing ambivalence towards the war, and despite the absence of outright condemnation, a subtle shift and distancing can be discerned.

Faultlines9DLNovember 4, 20229DashLine, Lunting Wu, Kamil Matusiewicz, Alignment without alliance: China’s growing ambivalence to Putin’s war, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jingping, Xi Jinping, SCO, SCO Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Samarkand, Ukraine, Ukraine war, military, Moscow, Beijing, Russia's aggression, cooperation, economic partners, Russian oil, gas, and coal, Saudi Arabia, trade, decoupling, US, NATO, security, Taiwan, AUKUS, Quad, Li Zhanshu, Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, State Duma, NATO allies, liberal hegemony, Liberal International Order, liberal internationalism, Orange Revolution, colour revolutions, 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Yang Jiechi, Foreign Affairs Commission, US hegemony, Western powers, liberal democracy, US interests, Western sanctions, Sinopec, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank (NDB), Huawei, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Arctic LNG 2 project, EU sanctions, Xiaomi Corp., Lenovo Group Ltd., Power of Siberia 2, zero-covid, secondary sanctions, food security, food insecurity, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Wang Yi, Kremlin, social media, Ukraine's counter-offensives, Weibo, Central Asian states, Belt and Road Initiative, humanitarian aid, Central and Eastern European countries, 17+1, People’s Liberation Army, indivisible security, Global Security Initiative, Cold War, sovereignty, Nuclear weapons, autonomous regions

A tall order: Germany’s comprehensive China strategy

Written by Christiane Heidbrink

For the first time in history, the German government is drafting its own China strategy. Although much is still up in the air, it is becoming apparent that Chancellor Olaf Scholz is trying to strike a balance between cooperation and tough-talking.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLOctober 24, 20229DashLine, Christiane Heidbrink, Germany, China, German government, coalition, China strategy, A tall order: Germany’s comprehensive China strategy, systemic rivalry, EU-China policy, German Social Democrats, SPD, Greens, Alliance 90/The Greens, Free Democratic Party, FDP, Sino-German relations, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Scholz, Green BRI, Belt and Road Initiative, Green Belt and Road Initiative, climate goals, greenwashing, climate action, environmental protection, Scholz administration, Berlin, Beijing, EU Global Gateway Initiative, G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, Supply Chain Law, supply chains, German Foreign Trade and Payments Regulation, Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, 13th Mechanical Engineering Summit, decoupling, diversification, Chinese Dual Circulation Strategy, Indo-Pacific Guidelines, Indo-Pacific, diplomatic efforts, NATO 2022 strategic concept, Jens Plötner, tough-talking