Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — 9DASHLINE

Navigating Sinophobia amid Indonesia's economic ascent

Written by Dr Narayani Sritharan and Peter Rizkillah

Sinophobia in Indonesia is not merely a by-product of the BRI but a consequence of economic ambition intersecting with security concerns in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Emerging Issues, Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLApril 5, 2024Navigating Sinophobia amid Indonesia's economic ascent, NARAYANI SRITHARAN, PETER RIZKILLAH, 9DashLine, China, Indonesia, geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese lending, BRI-related loans, infrastructure, Sinophobia, Global South, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, economic growth, debt sustainability, debt, AidData, Xi Jinping, Global Civilisation Initiative, Global Security Initiative (GSI), development tools, President Jokowi, Chinese investments, influx of Chinese workers, Chinese workers, immigration, labour migration, COVID-19 pandemic, Jakarta, PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI), nickel, nickel processing plant, Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry, Morowali, Central Sulawesi, PT Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry (VDNI), Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesian labour regulations, labour disputes, labour unions, ferronickel smelter, Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report, data protection laws, tourist visas, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, visa-free, visa-waiver policy, North Sumatra, Dairi regency, regional security, Islamist extremist groups, Jamah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), counterterrorism, counterterrorism cooperation

Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy

Written by Michael Kugelman

Ultimately, like any democratic leader, Muizzu will need to walk a tightrope between foreign policy imperatives and domestic political considerations. A balancing policy abroad will also require one at home.

South Asia, Power Politics9DLFebruary 1, 20249dashline, Tilting or balancing: Decoding Muizzu’s foreign policy, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, India, China, Beijing, Male, pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, “India Out” movement, India Out, India’s military, corruption, Maldivians, coup, Islamist extremism, Hindu, International Yoga Day, New Delhi, hydrographic surveys, Turkey, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lakshadweep, Indian tourists, tourism, economic reliance, trade deficit, Chinese research vessel, intelligence, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, intervened militarily, democracy, development, trade agreement, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives-India relations, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, India First, “India First” policy, cybersecurity, COVID-19 vaccines, trade deal, defence deal, UN climate summit, security cooperation, debt, Climate change, geopolitical, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, nationalism, sovereignty, independence, economic dependence, Chinese influence, hedging policy, hedging, great power competition, anti-Modi, sea lanes, EU, disinformation, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), People’s National Congress (PNC) party

Tusk’s Chinese crossroads: Sino-Polish engagement in the post-PiS era

Written by Matthias van Herel

Whether Beijing will find a partner in the new Polish government will heavily depend on Beijing’s capacity to reinvent the BRI, as its current incarnation is losing momentum in Europe.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20249dashline, Tusk’s Chinese crossroads: Sino-Polish engagement in the post-PiS era, Matthias van Herel, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), PiS’s illiberal ghost, Prime Minister Donald Tus, Tusk’s Civic Platform, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sino-Polish trade, belt and road initiative in Europe, The Polish success story, Huntingtonian optimism, Soviet-transformation, post-Soviet transformation, Jarosław Kaczyński’s conservative Eurosceptic PiS party, Alexei Yurchak’s ‘temporality of eternity’, Europhile society, Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość, gregor samsa, European Counci, Euphoria, Central and Eastern Europe region, China’s port in Piraeus, Greece, to the European market, BRI’s New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor (NELB), Kazakhstan, Poland’s competitively priced road transportation sector, 2011 Strategic Partnership, Łódź and Sichuan Province, Łódź’s severe economic downturn, Witold Stępień, Łódź Hanna Zdanowska (PO), Hatrans, Dell, lechów-based factory with its supplier Foxconn, Polish Consulate General in Chengdu, Sino-Polish relations, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Multimodal Technology Park, Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships, Military Property Agency, Polish minister of defence Antoni Macierewicz, Three Seas Initiative, Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), Viktor Orbán, hird Belt and Road Forum in October 2023, European Council, Sino-Polish economic ties

In Forum: 2024 — Minilaterals in the Indo-Pacific

Minilaterals have become the partnerships of choice for addressing joint problems in the Indo-Pacific and deepening cooperation beyond traditional formats.

In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess whether minilaterals can make global governance more effective and whether the institutional landscape of the Indo-Pacific will become overcrowded in 2024.

Manila is shopping, not re-aligning

Written by Drake Long

Rather than celebrating each time a country publicly cancels a Chinese project, the US, Australia, the EU, and other nations competing for influence at the expense of Beijing should keep in mind the wider picture — Manila and other capitals like it are shopping around for alternatives.

Southeast Asia9DLDecember 7, 20239dashline, Drake Long, Manila is Shopping, Not Re-Aligning, Philippines, Manila, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Subic-Clark freight railway, Calamba-Bicol commuter rail line, inter-city Mindanao railway, Beijing’s influence, China Global Investment tracker, additional memorandum of understanding, Ferdinand Marcos, Marcos’ inauguration, Vanautu, cambodia, indonesia, vietnam, Laos, Sri Lanka, high-profile Chinese investment, Beijing, frontier market, Asian Development Bank, ASEAN, Mindanao, Brunei, Malaysia, conflict zone, Subic bay, state-owned enterprises, Loan repayments, debt-soaked Southeast Asian capitals, Chinese company, Western democracy, US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, maritime statecraft, EU, Australia, Chinese project, Beijing camp, investment deficit, Economic growth, Manila is shopping, not re-aligning, Manila is shopping not re-aligning

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Parting ways? The uncertain future of the Belt and Road Initiative in Italy

Written by Francesco Giovanni Lizzi

While an automatic continuation of the MoU might dissuade a Chinese reaction, it would squander the political capital invested to reassure the American allies. Conversely, exiting the Initiative would complicate Chinese-Italian relations even further since an alternative agreement with Beijing would be needed.

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

Faultlines9DLAugust 11, 2023China’s uncertain future as a global security provider, Lukas Fiala, 9DashLine, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Beijing, Global South, security, mediator, Riyadh, Tehran, Middle East, Washington, diplomacy, isolation, COVID-19, pandemic, United States, China’s overseas security strategy, strategy, foreign policy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, mediation, peace and security, peace broker, non-state actors, intrastate conflicts, statist approach, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, security and defence cooperation, Hu Jintao, United Nations peacekeeping (UNPK) missions, South Sudan, Mali, Africa, Latin America, multilateral, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military base in Djibouti, Global Security Initiative (GSI), security actor, US-led global security order, global security governance, UN Charter, indivisible security, sovereignty, 1975 Helsinki Accords, Vladimir Putin, NATO expansion, NATO, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western imperialism, imperial history, Western colonial powers, century of national humiliation, Soviet Union, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Western hegemony, principle of non-interference, non-aligned movement, Cold War, non-intervention, 干涉, 干预, security provider, Sudan, Libya, ‘Go Out Strategy’ (走出去战略), Chinese state-owned enterprises, natural resources, raw materials, multilateral lenders, development finance, human rights, good governance, 2008 Beijing Olympics, al-Bashir regime, African Union, Darfur, Libyan civil war, People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA), Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Chinese interests, power projection, security-development nexus, liberal peace, developmental peace, Ethiopia, civil war, Pakistan, South Asia, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamic extremism, Islamabad, sovereign lender, arbiter, Abiy Ahmed, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Saudi-Iran rapprochement, Iraq, Afghanistan, global war on terror, piracy, Gulf of Aden, 9dashline

In the Maldives, domestic politics is causing China to lose ground

Written by Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy

There is less space for China’s diplomatic manoeuvres if the next Maldivian government embraces a minimalist interaction with China and chooses alternative Indo-Pacific partners to deter any Chinese misadventures.

The myth of the 'vassal state': China’s influence in Laos is waning

Written by Joanne Lin

Statistics have shown that although China has a significant degree of influence over Laos, it is certainly not controlling the country.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe: stuttering to a halt?

Written by Dr Jeremy Garlick

The BRI’s unfulfilled potential in the region leaves the connectivity and cooperation aims of the initiative largely on the shelf, with the main successes for China located in Western Balkan countries that are not EU members.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 12, 20239DashLine, China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe: stuttering to a halt?, Jeremy Garlick, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), China, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), One Belt One Road, Beijing, Russia, Western Europe, developing world, Global South, investment, Cold War, Soviet influence, Sino-Soviet split, communist regimes, 16+1 framework, 16+1, 16+1 summit, 14+1, 17+1, EU, trade, economy, trade routes, China-CEE cooperation, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s invasion, Russia's aggression, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Taiwan, infrastructure, Western Balkans, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, China-CEE cooperation framework, Russia’s regional influence, Greece, high-speed railway, Belgrade, Budapest, EU regulations, Hungary, Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Southeast Europe, port of Piraeus, trade chain, Suez Canal, trade volumes, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, bilateral deals, EU bureaucracy, highway, railway, Danube River, bridge, sewer system, power plants, energy infrastructure, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Central Asia, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Africa, EU accession, EU integration, creditor, Fudan University, ‘One China’ policy, United Nations, Xinjiang, connectivity, Eurosceptic, CEE countries, CEE region, regionalisation, CEE, Central and Eastern Europe, European Union

The Quad’s public goods approach: countering the BRI

Written by Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman

Even as it coordinates with other Indo-Pacific strategies and the G20, the priority for the Quad should be to make the geopolitical landscape more amenable to engagement with ASEAN.

Emerging Issues9DLApril 26, 20239DashLine, The Quad’s public goods approach: countering the BRI, Muhammad Faizal bin Abdul Rahman, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), Quad, China, geopolitics, 2008 global financial crisis, ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), trade, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), economic coercion, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), South China Sea, public goods, vaccines, cybersecurity, critical and emerging technologies (CET), outer space, offset China’s influence, Quad Ministerial Meeting, New Delhi, free and open Indo-Pacific, India, US, Australia, Japan, East China Sea, emerging norms, rules, and standards, open, transparent, and secure 5G networks, Open-RAN (Radio Access Network) solutions, Huawei, China's ‘national champions', Nokia, Ericsson, Prague Proposals on Telecommunications Supplier Diversity, democratic values, norms and rules on digital infrastructure development, supply chains, authoritarian governments, countries of origin, surveillance of Uighurs in Xinjiang, transparency, The State of Southeast Asia 2023 Survey Report, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, China's Global Security Initiative (GSI), Munich Security Conference (MSC), Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, AUKUS, missile defence drills, South Korea, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Exercise Malabar, Malaysia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Indo-Pacific NATO, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, minilaterals, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, alliance, European Union’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, Japan’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ vision, connectivity, G20, 2019 Osaka Summit, Putin-Wang meeting in Moscow, Russia, ASEAN dialogue partners, Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo, democracy vs. authoritarianism, Canada, China-US tensions, THE QUAD’S PUBLIC GOODS APPROACH: COUNTERING THE BRI

Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Written by Nashalie De Silva and Thilina Panduwawala

It will be crucial to communicate the need for these tough reforms to voters and ensure that they benefit from the economic recovery.

South Asia9DLApril 17, 2023Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: what’s next?, 9dashline, Nashalie De Silva, Thilina Panduwawala, Sri Lanka, International Monetary Fund, IMF, IMF Executive Board, Extended Fund Facility, IMF Staff-Level Agreement, economic crisis, economic recovery, debt, Debt trap, debt restructuring, debt relief, creditor, China, Debtbook Diplomacy, debt trap diplomacy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India, Paris Club, China Development Bank (CDB), loans, COVID-19 pandemic, tax cut, USA, Export-Import Bank of China, moratorium, IMF Board Approval, IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), IMF Staff Report, Letter of Intent, inflation, unsustainable public debt, Zambia, Ecuador, low-income country, market-access country, fiscal consolidation, populist politics, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, technocrats, economic reforms, anti-corruption, Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Kyoko Hatakeyama

Moreover, since Japan has maintained a stable relationship with China — despite their territorial disputes — the region does not have to worry about backlash or anger from China just because they choose Japan over China.

East Asia9DLDecember 16, 20229dashline, How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific, Kyoko Hatakeyama, Japan, China, South China Sea, nine-dash line, Senkaku Island, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP, TPP, United States, Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade partner, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Tokyo, Beijing, regional economic integration, sphere of influence, Sino-centric order, infrastructure projects, G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, G20, Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment, indo-pacific, Abeonomics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Abenomics, Shinzo Abe, South Korea, Taiwan, Jakarta, Bandung, Indonesia, Cambodia, debt, debt trap, Pacific Island states, Solomon Islands, Australia, New Zealand, COVID-19 crisis, COVAX, WHO, ASEAN, Sinovac, Laos, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Donald Trump, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ‘debt trap’ diplomacy, Asian Development Bank, Nauru, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Philippines, Vietnam, Philippine Coast Guards (PCG), Joko Widodo, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Natuna archipelago, Natuna Islands, USA

China, transnational organised crime, and Southeast Asia’s SEZs — is this Quid pro quo?

Written by Marco Neveu and Charlie Thame

Xi’s anti-corruption projects in the mainland seem to have sparked a degree of outward mobility by the triads from the authoritarian domestic core towards the more liminal and experimental periphery of Chinese influence.

Faultlines9DLNovember 11, 20229DashLine, China, transnational organised crime, and Southeast Asia’s SEZs: Quid pro quo?, Marco Neveu, Charlie Thame, crime, Southeast Asia, Radio Free Asia, Laos, Malaysian workers, Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone (GTSEZ), enclave, Laotian, Chinese, Hong Kong, Kings Roman Group, torture, slavery, Sexual Slavery, online scam, Special Economic Zone, ASEAN, organised crime, transnational organised criminal (TOC), UNODC, global supply chains, trafficking, human trafficking, corruption, Thai, Thailand, neo-colonialist, exploitation, Sexual exploitation, economic development, FDI, Xi Jinping, authoritarian, Cold War, Truman administration, United Nations, UN, Bretton Woods institutions, Asian Development Bank, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Sihanoukville SEZ, Sihanoukville, Cambodia, scam, China’s Ministry of Commerce, Overseas Trade and Cooperation, Myanmar, Belt and Road Initiative, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), state-owned enterprises, China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), triad, triads, Han nationalist, secret societies, Qing dynasty, Kuomintang (KMT), Bamboo Union, Chang An-lo, Taiwan, anti-corruption campaign, gangs, spies, Intelligence, patriotism, Americas, Beijing, Chang An-lo (“White Wolf”), Wan Kuok-koi (“Broken Tooth”), Zhao Wei, Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, diplomacy, police, crime syndicate, Hun Sen, APEC 2022 forum, APEC

The EU ventures into the strategic “jungle”

Written by Mohammadbagher Forough

While tropes such as ‘values’ and ‘standards’ are promoted as the main feature of the Global Gateway’s connectivity agenda, African countries (and many others in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America) will not overlook the fact that this promoted feature contrasts uneasily with neo-colonialist-sounding dichotomies like ‘garden/jungle’.

Faultlines9DLOctober 27, 20229DashLine, Mohammadbagher Forough, The EU ventures into the strategic “Jungle”, European Diplomatic Academy, Josep Borrell, Borrell, Vice-President Borrell, HRVP, garden, jungle, diplomacy, European Union, European Commission, geoeconomic, Global Gateway, Western, Europe, US security, Russian energy, Asia, Pivot to Asia, Biden administration, Indo-Pacific, Russian war against Ukraine, Ukraine, Russia, strategic autonomy, geopolitics, Ursula von der Leyen, China, EU’s Chips Act, John Keats, Germany, China strategy, Olaf Scholz, business lobby, France, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, Europe’s Global Gateway, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), supply chains, resilience, shared communities of interest, India, Africa, Cold War, anti-colonialism, Middle East, Latin America, neo-colonialist, Robert Kagan, colonialism, racism, Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness”, Putin, Edward Said, decolonial