Biden administration — 9DASHLINE

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

Written by Rorry Daniels

While breakthroughs remain unlikely, the test in 2024 is whether the US and China can manage differences quietly and directly while under the political magnifying glass.

Faultlines9DLMarch 12, 2024US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident, 9DASHLINE, Rorry Daniels, US-China relationship, China, US, United States, balloon, spy balloon, Chinese surveillance, espionage, US-China diplomatic interaction, US elections, Taiwan, spy balloon incident, Biden administration, Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Beijing, bureaucracies, domestic politics, homeland security, bipartisan consensus, Washington, Xi Jinping, propaganda, state-driven, 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, Gaza, Middle East, NATO, Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s inner circle, US sanctions, Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, COVID recovery, authoritarianism, co-exist peacefully, free market principles, diversification, hedging, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, cross-Strait, US presidential and congressional elections, diplomacy, Taipei, non-proliferation, humanitarian aid

In Forum: 2024 — US Strategy and the Indo-Pacific

To what extent can the US compete with China if it does not offer more economic opportunities to Indo-Pacific countries, especially due to mounting doubts about its reliability as a security guarantor in the region?

We invite several experts to assess this state of affairs.

Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

Written by Marc Saxer

‘Partnerships of the Middle’ recognise the aversion of Asian powers against alliances and offer informal avenues of collaboration to safeguard global public goods.

Power Politics9DLNovember 7, 20239DASHLINE, Will structural trends force ‘swing states’ to choose sides?, Marc Saxer, China, United States, hegemony, competition, Indo-Pacific, superpowers, allies, balancing, balancing power, balancing game, balancing strategies, bloc building, bloc, technological bifurcation, bipolarity, band-waggon, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, military alliance, Marcos Jr., President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President Marcos Jr., treaty ally, Russia, North Korea, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Burmese junta, Myanmar, ASEAN, bloc formation, binaries, Taiwan, cold war, hot war, hedging, Global South, Russian invasion, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Malaysia, Pakistan, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF), bailout, swing state, bamboo diplomacy, Thailand, Washington, Quad, Quadrilateral Dialogue, technology transfers, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Bangladesh, Vietnam, diversification, supply chains, China plus One, multi-alignment, non-alignment, Biden administration, de-risking, decoupling, democracies, systemic rivalry, autocracies, rules-based international order, Tokyo, Canberra, G20, 5G, Huawei, Netherlands, South China Sea, geoeconomic, geoeconomy, geoeconomics, export controls, investment bans, strategic competition, friend-shoring, Eurozone, sovereign debt crises, the West, sanction regime, SWIFT, de-dollarisation, Renminbi, Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Chip4, Partnerships of the Middle, Group of Friends for Multilateralism, Structural trends could force swing states to choose sides

The United States and China: Two alternative visions of regional order

Written by Dr Matteo Dian

Both US allies and non-aligned partners are deepening their security relationship with Washington as their main insurance policy against increasingly frequent Chinese coercion.

Faultlines9DLMay 1, 20239dashline, The United States and China: two alternative visions of regional order, DR MATTEO DIAN, US, US-China, China, power competition, Washington, beijing, regional order, Indo-Pacific model, democracy, maritime democracies, indo-pacific, American-led alliances, Community of Common Destiny, sovereignty, non-interference, US-led military alliances, Cold War mentality, cooperative mechanisms, consent, legitimacy, coercion, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP, Trump administration, US hegemony, Asia Pacific, liberal internationalist tradition, Biden administration, great power, middle powers, material superiority, normative pillars, US allies, Quad, US-led regional order., j, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, liberal values, Xi Jinping, alternative leadership, Sino-centric region, Chinese model, Belt and Road Initiative, state sovereignty, Global Security Initiative, GSI, political-military blocs, ideological blocs, anti-colonial grievances, Australia, territorial disputes, Code of Conduct for maritime disputes, ASEAN

Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea

Written by Dr Chang-min Lee

Although both allies of the US, Japan and Korea are forced to compete with each other economically, which is exacerbated by persisting political problems between Tokyo and Seoul.

East Asia9DLApril 10, 20239DashLine, Decoupling from China is not so easy for Japan and Korea, CHANG-MIN LEE, White House, US economic security strategy, economic security, President Joe Biden, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, China, US-China competition for hegemony, US-China competition, Japan, Korea, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, decoupling, technology, semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, chip makers, SK Hynix, electric vehicles, North America, Russia, automakers, core minerals, US-China rivalry, COVID-19 pandemic, vulnerability of global supply chains, supply chain security, Reshoring Initiative, foreign direct investment, Near-shoring, Mexico, American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, small yard, high fence, friend-shoring, AI, quantum technology, allies, technology gap, Economic Security Promotion Act, Kishida government, Biden administration, chip alliance, IBM, Rapidus, Toyota, Denso, Sony, NEC, NTT, Softbank, Kioxia, Toshiba, Tokyo Electron, high-tech, TSMC, Taiwan, export, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Human Rights Violation Act, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, foreign trade, friendly nations, National Security Council, pro-China

'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo — A false spring?

Written by Kevin Gray

The apparent ‘thaw’ of Korea-Japan relations is likely to be a ‘false spring’ rather than a genuine new era of bilateral relations and broader regional cooperation.

East Asia9DLApril 7, 20239dashline, 'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo - a false spring?, south korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, japan, Fumio Kishida, diplomatic relations, wartime forced labour, bilateral relations, Korean Supreme Court, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Korean families, WW2, forced labour, Kevin Gray, compensation for victims, financial compensation, export restrictions, key chemical exports, semiconductors, public outrage, Japanese goods, bilateral cooperation, regional ramifications, trilateral Japan-South Korea-US cooperation, China, North Korea, Japan-South Korea-US cooperation, Washington, trilateral alliance, security realm, military intelligence-sharing pact, Biden administration, Seoul, Anthony Blinken, ROK, allies, reconciliation, colonised country, colonising country, historical animosities., Park Jin, Foreign Minister Park Jin, Tokyo, apologies, wartime sexual slavery, Shinzo Abe, Japanese history textbooks, Japanese war crimes, colonial history, comfort women, 2015 ‘comfort women’ agreement, comfort women statues, grievances, geopolitical imperatives, decolonisation, Cold War imperatives, 1965 Treaty of Basic Relations, Park Chung-hee, developmental drive, popular protests, private claims for compensation, historical injustices, Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, candlelight revolution, Democratic Party, Yoon government, Dokdo/Takeshima, 'Thawing' between Seoul and Tokyo — a false spring?, 'THAWING' BETWEEN SEOUL AND TOKYO — A FALSE SPRING?

Reading tea leaves: Taiwan’s November 2022 ‘midterm’ elections

Written by Alexander C. Tan

With the 2024 presidential and legislative elections about two years away — which might as well be an eternity in politics — the DPP has time to regroup and recalibrate its message.

Two years after coup, Myanmar junta adapts to isolation

Written by Hunter Marston

Western aid is far away and will remain hostage to both Myanmar’s immediate neighbours, with whom they must coordinate, and broader concerns about security on the European continent, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will grip Western leaders’ attention for the foreseeable future.

The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals

Written by Alice Dell’Era

From Europe’s perspective, these potential trilateral and/or minilateral consultative mechanisms could give European actors the space to voice their own outlook, ensuring that European viewpoints are incorporated into Japanese and American perspectives.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia9DLNovember 25, 20229DashLine, The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals, Alice Dell’Era, US-Japan, security partnership, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Cold War, Japan, US, United States, allies, bilateralism, bilateralism-plus, trilateral, minilateral, minilateral regional mechanisms, bilateral alliance, Republic of Korea, ROK, Australia, India, Europe, Biden administration, France, UK, Germany, Abe Cabinet, Arc of Freedom and Prosperity Initiative’, European partners, 2+2, dynamic strategic partnership, Japan-France Comprehensive Maritime Dialogue, Working Group on the Indo-Pacific, Reciprocal Access Agreement, RAA, extra-regional partner, Tokyo, Berlin, Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, defence, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, joint military training, goodwill training, Indo-Pacific deployment, Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force, ASDF, quadrilateral, Washington, La Perouse, ARC21, US-Japan 2021 ANNUALEX, ANNUALEX, US-Japan Alliance-Plus

Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security

Written by Phan Xuan Dung

As Vietnam’s most senior politician and the architect of the ‘bamboo diplomacy’ concept, Trong should promote efforts to update Vietnam’s strategic thinking, thereby enabling the country to bend and sway in the current geopolitical headwinds with greater flexibility.

Power Politics9DLNovember 18, 20229DashLine, Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security, Phan Xuan Dung, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong, 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Vietnamese Communist Party, VCP, Beijing, China, Hanoi, Xi Jinping, Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic partnership, regime-state security, Russia-Ukraine war, Biden administration, authoritarian regimes, political stability, political survival, Marxist-Leninist one-party state, vietnam, Doi Moi economic reform, Doi Moi, united states, international relations, Olaf Scholz, Jacinda Ardern, Joe Biden, President Biden, comprehensive strategic partnership, bamboo diplomacy, post-Cold War era, pluralistic democracy, colour revolutions, US-led liberal democracy, Washington, peaceful evolutions, Biden's National Security Strategy, non-democracies, international rules-based order, socialist democracy, Marxist-Leninist ideology, socialist regime, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, South China Sea, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, bilateral trade, Vietnamese imports, export diplomacy, supply chains, domestic political legitimacy, human rights, Obama, regime change

The EU ventures into the strategic “jungle”

Written by Mohammadbagher Forough

While tropes such as ‘values’ and ‘standards’ are promoted as the main feature of the Global Gateway’s connectivity agenda, African countries (and many others in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America) will not overlook the fact that this promoted feature contrasts uneasily with neo-colonialist-sounding dichotomies like ‘garden/jungle’.

Faultlines9DLOctober 27, 20229DashLine, Mohammadbagher Forough, The EU ventures into the strategic “Jungle”, European Diplomatic Academy, Josep Borrell, Borrell, Vice-President Borrell, HRVP, garden, jungle, diplomacy, European Union, European Commission, geoeconomic, Global Gateway, Western, Europe, US security, Russian energy, Asia, Pivot to Asia, Biden administration, Indo-Pacific, Russian war against Ukraine, Ukraine, Russia, strategic autonomy, geopolitics, Ursula von der Leyen, China, EU’s Chips Act, John Keats, Germany, China strategy, Olaf Scholz, business lobby, France, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, Europe’s Global Gateway, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), supply chains, resilience, shared communities of interest, India, Africa, Cold War, anti-colonialism, Middle East, Latin America, neo-colonialist, Robert Kagan, colonialism, racism, Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness”, Putin, Edward Said, decolonial

Slowing the escalatory spiral over Taiwan

Written by Amanda Hsiao and Ivy Kwek

A long-lasting solution on Taiwan will be difficult to realise anytime soon. However, avoiding miscalculation and slowing the escalatory spiral that the parties are currently engaged in are achievable outcomes that Taipei, Washington, and Beijing should prioritise.

East Asia9DLSeptember 29, 20229DashLine, Slowing the escalatory spiral over Taiwan, Amanda Hsiao, Ivy Kwek, Taiwan, China, US, USA, escalatory spiral, escalation, Washington, Beijing, Taipei, US-China rivalry, US-China competition, US-China relations, military, military exercise, reunification, one China, one Taiwan, US-Taiwan relations, US Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi, cyberattacks, sanctions, Taiwanese, Chinese, sovereignty, Pelosi’s visit, median line, maritime, navy, airspace, drone, drones, human error, Pacific, US-Taiwan engagement, defence, defence spending, arms sale, arms package, Biden administration, Biden, Joe Biden, Central Asia, United Nations, 20th Party Congress, Party Congress, propaganda, Xi, Xi Jinping, amphibious invasion, amphibious, military intervention, Trump, Trump administration, Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Japan, Yonaguni Island, Philippines’ EEZ, Philippines, Manila, Taiwan conflict, Taiwan Strait, escalatory cycle, deter, deterrence, One China policy, One China Policy, One China, One-China, One-China Policy, Three Communiques, US Congress, Taiwan Policy Act

Going global: Beijing’s bid to rewrite the rules of international security

Written by Sam Bresnick

If Beijing succeeds in impelling Global Security Initiative partners to revise existing security norms and arrangements (certainly a big ‘if’), the United States and its allies could find themselves increasingly constrained.

The US should prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Ukraine, but the clash of interests should not be overstated

Written by Áine Cooke

The US must ensure that it remains competitive by enhancing its military capabilities to deter an invasion of Taiwan, as well as by extending its diplomatic reach to counter China’s extensive regional engagement, and by formulating a comprehensive economic and climate policy.

US efforts to strengthen collective defence in Europe won’t come free for Asia

Written by Tom Corben

What will frustrate many in Asia is that the urgency evident in these new US commitments to collective defence in Europe is yet to be mirrored in parallel efforts in the Indo-Pacific.

Imposing CAATSA sanctions threatens the Quad

Written by Joshua Brannon

Whether through presidential waiver or the more comprehensive assurances afforded under Senator Cruz’s proposed CRUCIAL Act, India must be exempted from CAATSA sanctions if the Quad is to become an effective military counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.

The politics of Taliban recognition

Written by Michael Kugelman

For the United States, giving Kabul access to aid — including nearly USD $10 billion in foreign reserves frozen by Washington — is hard to justify without recognising the regime.