Written by Linn Thit Htoo
A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China.
Read MoreWritten by Linn Thit Htoo
A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
The root of Myanmar’s crisis is political: as long as the military holds power, the country will be at war, and the economy will underperform.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
Western aid is far away and will remain hostage to both Myanmar’s immediate neighbours, with whom they must coordinate, and broader concerns about security on the European continent, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will grip Western leaders’ attention for the foreseeable future.
Read MoreWritten by Kimkong Heng
Although there is speculation that US President Joe Biden will attend the East Asia Summit, will he be willing to sit for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin or his substitute? Cambodia will have to balance multiple pressures while hosting these high-level meetings.
Read MoreWritten by Kristina Kironska
The military regime is worried that the Russian supply of hardware to Myanmar could slow down as it is now needed elsewhere. Moreover, Western financial sanctions on Russia are worrying for the junta as many generals and Myanmar’s arms dealers have bank accounts in Russia.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
The junta knows it needs the support of Moscow and Beijing in the UN Security Council to prevent international action such as an arms embargo, which has failed to pass given their veto powers.
Read MoreWritten by Angshuman Choudhury
Long wars become even more difficult for the primary aggressors when they lack local support or popular legitimacy, which is certainly the case with the military in Myanmar today.
Read MoreWritten by Zachary Abuza
Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.
Read MoreWritten by Joy Joy
Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people. They must listen to the voices of the Burmese people and their democratically-elected representatives while making meaningful engagements to help resolve the crisis.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
Kurt Campbell, who Biden named Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, was an integral architect of the Obama administration’s “opening to Burma”. He will likely have some sleepless nights once again designing US Myanmar policy. It is unclear what options Washington now has left beyond widening sanctions against the military.
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