Posts tagged Naypyidaw
Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps
Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps

Written by Hunter Marston

Identifying possible mediators and key stakeholders is critical at this particular juncture, and given the present circumstances we need not let perfect be the enemy of good.

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Two years after coup, Myanmar junta adapts to isolation
Two years after coup, Myanmar junta adapts to isolation

Written by Hunter Marston

Western aid is far away and will remain hostage to both Myanmar’s immediate neighbours, with whom they must coordinate, and broader concerns about security on the European continent, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will grip Western leaders’ attention for the foreseeable future.

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With ASEAN Snub, Myanmar junta signals return to Cold War isolationism
With ASEAN Snub, Myanmar junta signals return to Cold War isolationism

Written by Hunter Marston

The junta knows it needs the support of Moscow and Beijing in the UN Security Council to prevent international action such as an arms embargo, which has failed to pass given their veto powers.

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After a year of fighting Myanmar's junta is showing frustration
After a year of fighting Myanmar's junta is showing frustration

Written by Angshuman Choudhury

Long wars become even more difficult for the primary aggressors when they lack local support or popular legitimacy, which is certainly the case with the military in Myanmar today.

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The Tatmadaw’s flawed theory of victory
The Tatmadaw’s flawed theory of victory

Written by Zachary Abuza

Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.

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Myanmar’s divided state leaves thousands of its people in the lurch
Myanmar’s divided state leaves thousands of its people in the lurch

Written by Hunter Marston

Until some sort of political solution is achieved, Myanmar’s civilian population will remain torn between the current chaos of poverty and armed conflict on the one hand, and an as-yet-unrealised future built on principles of democracy and federalism towards which they are striving.

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South China Sea dispute: The three challenges to ASEAN’s position
South China Sea dispute: The three challenges to ASEAN’s position

Written by Kalvin Fung

ASEAN members such as Indonesia might find themselves mired in a quagmire: recognising a regime lambasted for its terrible human rights record might save ASEAN unity but could draw further condemnation from the West and international media; rejecting the junta might jeopardise regional unity and delay the long-awaited COC.

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Burmese blowback: Prayuth’s myopic Myanmar policy
Burmese blowback: Prayuth’s myopic Myanmar policy

Written by Zachary Abuza

Myanmar might not be a failed state yet, but it is teetering towards becoming one. And the capture of the state by EAOs and transnational syndicates will impact Thai security for years to come.

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Myanmar coup: What happens to the peace process now?
Myanmar coup: What happens to the peace process now?

Written by Angshuman Choudhury

All these signs point to a dark reality — the peace process as we knew it has collapsed and national reconciliation is no more a viable prospect. Needless to say, this forebodes a fresh spurt of armed conflict around the country. The situation, of course, could abruptly change if somehow the coup fails and a civilian government comes to power. At the heart of this unravelling is a historical lack of trust between the Tatmadaw and Myanmar’s many ethnic minorities.

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Enormous setbacks to Myanmar’s democracy: The path forward examined
Enormous setbacks to Myanmar’s democracy: The path forward examined

Written by Hunter Marston

Kurt Campbell, who Biden named Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, was an integral architect of the Obama administration’s “opening to Burma”. He will likely have some sleepless nights once again designing US Myanmar policy. It is unclear what options Washington now has left beyond widening sanctions against the military.

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