Tatmadaw — 9DASHLINE

How ASEAN should respond to Myanmar’s manufactured parliament

Written by Linn Thit Htoo

A protracted war that the Tatmadaw cannot win, but remains capable of sustaining, is becoming an increasingly poor investment for China.

China is hedging in Myanmar by leveraging its influence

Written by Chetan Rana

Even though Myanmar’s international isolation appears to push it further closer to China, the Sit Tat and the EAOs are simultaneously engaging and contesting with China in different sectors. Beijing will be key in the execution and acceptance of elections planned by the junta.

Realistic path forward: Malaysia’s call for rethinking the ASEAN-Myanmar ‘consensus’

Written by Bridget Welsh

Since 2018, Malaysian governments have been proactive in drawing attention to conditions within Myanmar, with the current foreign minister, Saifuddin Abdullah, and former foreign minister, Syed Hamid Albar, actively engaged in seeking solutions to the crisis.

As the focus on Myanmar fades Ukraine takes the spotlight

Written by Kristina Kironska

The military regime is worried that the Russian supply of hardware to Myanmar could slow down as it is now needed elsewhere. Moreover, Western financial sanctions on Russia are worrying for the junta as many generals and Myanmar’s arms dealers have bank accounts in Russia.

The Tatmadaw’s flawed theory of victory

Written by Zachary Abuza

Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.

Myanmar’s divided state leaves thousands of its people in the lurch

Written by Hunter Marston

Until some sort of political solution is achieved, Myanmar’s civilian population will remain torn between the current chaos of poverty and armed conflict on the one hand, and an as-yet-unrealised future built on principles of democracy and federalism towards which they are striving.

The Rohingya exodus: South Asia’s predicament

Written by Sreeradha Datta

Consolidated subnational efforts can enable safer ground conditions that would end the discrimination and persecution faced by the Rohingyas and would allow them a future that is not tainted by violence and hostility and the possibility to live with dignity and safety.

Myanmar's military isn't playing politics: It’s trying to end them

Written by Hunter Marston

It is unlikely that the United States will arm various factions to topple the military — nor should it, as doing so would only add more fuel to an already raging fire. Only by helping the elected government deliver basic governance to the people who elected it can the country hope for a future in which the military steps aside and allows the restoration of democracy.

Burmese blowback: Prayuth’s myopic Myanmar policy

Written by Zachary Abuza

Myanmar might not be a failed state yet, but it is teetering towards becoming one. And the capture of the state by EAOs and transnational syndicates will impact Thai security for years to come.

Beijing’s ambivalence about the coup in Myanmar

Written by Murray Heibert

Beijing is unlikely to step up its role in Myanmar unless there is a sudden and massive outpouring of refugees across the border into China or opponents of the junta begin threatening Chinese infrastructure in the country.

Myanmar’s crisis puts ASEAN on the edge of an abyss

Written by Ja Ian Chong

ASEAN’s woes were already becoming apparent before the Myanmar crisis, with debates over whether to expel certain members, but the silence as the situation deteriorates really underscores how much rethinking may be necessary.

Enormous setbacks to Myanmar’s democracy: The path forward examined

Written by Hunter Marston

Kurt Campbell, who Biden named Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, was an integral architect of the Obama administration’s “opening to Burma”. He will likely have some sleepless nights once again designing US Myanmar policy. It is unclear what options Washington now has left beyond widening sanctions against the military.