Belarus — 9DASHLINE

China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe: stuttering to a halt?

Written by Dr Jeremy Garlick

The BRI’s unfulfilled potential in the region leaves the connectivity and cooperation aims of the initiative largely on the shelf, with the main successes for China located in Western Balkan countries that are not EU members.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 12, 20239DashLine, China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe: stuttering to a halt?, Jeremy Garlick, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), China, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), One Belt One Road, Beijing, Russia, Western Europe, developing world, Global South, investment, Cold War, Soviet influence, Sino-Soviet split, communist regimes, 16+1 framework, 16+1, 16+1 summit, 14+1, 17+1, EU, trade, economy, trade routes, China-CEE cooperation, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s invasion, Russia's aggression, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Taiwan, infrastructure, Western Balkans, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, China-CEE cooperation framework, Russia’s regional influence, Greece, high-speed railway, Belgrade, Budapest, EU regulations, Hungary, Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Southeast Europe, port of Piraeus, trade chain, Suez Canal, trade volumes, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, bilateral deals, EU bureaucracy, highway, railway, Danube River, bridge, sewer system, power plants, energy infrastructure, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Central Asia, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Africa, EU accession, EU integration, creditor, Fudan University, ‘One China’ policy, United Nations, Xinjiang, connectivity, Eurosceptic, CEE countries, CEE region, regionalisation, CEE, Central and Eastern Europe, European Union

Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal

Written by Andi Raihanah Ashar

Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia are unlikely to pursue a missile deal involving an India-Russian joint venture as long as they have to put their relationship with the US at risk.

Faultlines9DLApril 25, 20239DashLine, Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal, Andi Raihanah Ashar, Indonesia, China, Russia, India, Act East, strategic partner, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence exports, arms sales, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, New Delhi, BrahMos Aerospace, defence industry, Defence Research and Development Organisation, NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM), sanctions, Russian war against Ukraine, interoperability, India’s defence industry, Beijing, military equipment, defence budget, deterrence, cruise missile, supersonic cruise missile, United States International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), hypersonic missile, Atul D. Rane, Philippines, Philippine Marine Corps, sea-denial capability, Manila, Luzon, Palawan, South China Sea, Vietnam, Malaysia, territorial disputes, nine-dash line, Jakarta, National Armed Forces (TNI), Minimum Essential Force (MEF), Andika Perkasa, Prabowo Subianto, France, Qatar, Germany, Turkey, procurement, Rajnath Singh, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, coastal defence, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), PT Len Industri, Joko Widodo, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), Washington, USA, Iran, North Korea, Sukhoi Su-27 SK/SKM, Su-30MKK/MK2, Mil Mi-17V5, Mil Mi35P, P-800 Oniks (3M55), army, navy, air force, KRI Oswald Siahaan, US Senate, Sukhoi Su-35, F-5 Tiger, Lockheed Martin F-16V, 22 BMP-3F, 21 BT-3F, Su-27/30, Belarus, Harry Roque, BrahMos, NPOM, Mashinostroyenia, Ukraine, Southeast Asia, International Traffic in Arms Regulations, ITAR, Palawan Islands, Nine Dash Line, Widodo, CAATSA, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Sukhoi, Maritime Security and Counterterrorism, Modi

2023: The future of CEE-China relations

9DASHLINE asked a select group of experts to assess Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ relations with China and how they expect them to evolve in 2023.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 20239dashline, 2023: The future of CEE-China relations, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, VUK VUKSANOVIC, VALENTINA VENGUST, STEFAN VLADISAVLJEV, Central and Eastern European, CEE, China, 17+1, 14+1, Beijing, 2022, 2023, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC-CEE, PRC-CEE relations, economic cooperation, security concerns, critical infrastructure, high-tech industry, backsliding, democratic backsliding, coercion, Lithuania, EU common market, 'no-limits' friendship, Moscow, 16+1 summit, Huo Yuzhen, Estonia, Latvia, Jiang Yu, US, united states, Taiwan, security guarantor, NATO, China-CEE format, Czech Republic, Greece, Chinese investments, security concern, security guarantees, Washington, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Serbia, Hungary, Middle Corridor, Albania, North Macedonia, cooling-off period, joint statement, territorial integrity, sovereignty, diplomatic missions, Baltic countries, EU-China relations, China-CEE cooperation, cooperation mechanism, Sino-Serbian cooperation, territorial disputes, free trade agreement

Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies

Written by Eva Seiwert

The EU and allies should scrap the framing of ‘democracies vs autocracies’ not just with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also when speaking about China’s increase in power.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 12, 20239dashline, Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies, Eva Seiwert, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, World War II, European Union, EU, Moscow, Russia's aggression, Western governments, democracy, Autocracy, the West against the Rest, democracies vs autocracies, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), UNGA resolution, sanctions, SWIFT, Belarus, North KoreaNorth Korea, Syria, Nicaragua, Eritrea, Iran, drones, China, trade, rules-based international order, Global South, Global North, India, abstention, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Russia’s war, the West, Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), neutrality, anti-Americanism, Cold War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, vaccine nationalism, climate change, Western hypocrisy and selfishness, Ukrainian refugees, Beijing, Western double standards, anti-West narratives, Arab World, Latin America, Africa, Russian and Chinese media outlets, UN Charter, international law, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Argentina, Senegal, G7 summit in Schloss Elmau, G7, G20, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Samarkand 2022 — the ‘China Dream’ of SCO Summits

Written by Giulia Sciorati

As the SCO opens to other Asian sub-regions and even the African continent, Central Asia risks losing its centrality and becoming a minor geographical area compared to the Gulf or Southeast Asia, where the national interests of SCO member states (and China, above all) are prominent.

Editor's Picks9DLOctober 12, 20229DashLine, Samarkand 2022 — the ‘China Dream’ of SCO Summits, Giulia Sciorati, Samarkand, SCO, SCO Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China, Russia, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian war, sphere of influence, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Uzbekistan, Eurasian, Samarkand Declaration, non-interference, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi Jinping, harmonious coexistence of man and nature, bilateral, trilateral, multilateral, multilateralism, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Wang Yi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Narendra Modi, India, SCO member states, observer states, Central Asia, India-China border dispute, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin, COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19, China-Kazakhstan joint statement, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Sadyr Japarov, Iran, Belarus, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Maldives, Kuwait, UAE, myanmar, the Gulf, North Africa, South and Southeast Asia, economy, China Dream, Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), CSTO, Peacekeeping, peacekeepers, Beijing, Moscow, post-Soviet space

Russia, China and their search for great power identity

Written by Anisa Heritage

A consequence of Putin’s actions against Ukraine is the strengthening of Taiwanese identity and the intensification of their already strong desire to be separate from mainland China.

Faultlines9DLMarch 21, 2022Russia, China, and their search for great power identity, 9DASHLINE, ANISA HERITAGE, John Mearsheimer, NATO, Putin, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ukraine, War, Crimea, Belarus, Eurasia, European, Europe, EU, European Union, Moscow, Beijing, Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan, Belt and Road Initiative, oil, Sino-Russian, Western, Cold War, nationhood, 1945, Post war, Russian Empire, Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact, Georgia, Yalta, Poland, Baltics, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, Japan, Qing, Opium Wars, Sino-Japanese, Sino-Japanese War, South China Sea, East China Sea, Cairo Conference, Chiang Kai-Shek, Treaty of San Francisco, American, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, identity, Chinese Communist Party’s centennial celebration in 2021, irredentist, disinformation, propaganda, Brookings, Donetsk, Luhansk, empire, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK

The Tatmadaw’s flawed theory of victory

Written by Zachary Abuza

Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.