Written by Kristina Kironska
The military regime is worried that the Russian supply of hardware to Myanmar could slow down as it is now needed elsewhere. Moreover, Western financial sanctions on Russia are worrying for the junta as many generals and Myanmar’s arms dealers have bank accounts in Russia.
Read MoreWritten by Angshuman Choudhury
Long wars become even more difficult for the primary aggressors when they lack local support or popular legitimacy, which is certainly the case with the military in Myanmar today.
Read MoreWritten by Zachary Abuza
Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.
Read MoreAlthough Indonesia, which accounts for half of ASEAN’s size and wealth, is the natural leader of the grouping when it does not actively lead, the group is further weakened.
Read MoreWritten by Joy Joy
Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people. They must listen to the voices of the Burmese people and their democratically-elected representatives while making meaningful engagements to help resolve the crisis.
Read MoreWritten by Kalvin Fung
ASEAN members such as Indonesia might find themselves mired in a quagmire: recognising a regime lambasted for its terrible human rights record might save ASEAN unity but could draw further condemnation from the West and international media; rejecting the junta might jeopardise regional unity and delay the long-awaited COC.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
It is unlikely that the United States will arm various factions to topple the military — nor should it, as doing so would only add more fuel to an already raging fire. Only by helping the elected government deliver basic governance to the people who elected it can the country hope for a future in which the military steps aside and allows the restoration of democracy.
Read MoreWritten by Zachary Abuza
Myanmar might not be a failed state yet, but it is teetering towards becoming one. And the capture of the state by EAOs and transnational syndicates will impact Thai security for years to come.
Read MoreWritten by Murray Heibert
Beijing is unlikely to step up its role in Myanmar unless there is a sudden and massive outpouring of refugees across the border into China or opponents of the junta begin threatening Chinese infrastructure in the country.
Read MoreWith Hunter Marston
For the foreseeable future, small powers in Southeast Asia will cling to their independent foreign policies and seek to diversify their foreign relations in an attempt to find a balance that allows them more options and to avoid choosing sides in the brewing superpower rivalry.
Read MoreWritten by Angshuman Choudhury
All these signs point to a dark reality — the peace process as we knew it has collapsed and national reconciliation is no more a viable prospect. Needless to say, this forebodes a fresh spurt of armed conflict around the country. The situation, of course, could abruptly change if somehow the coup fails and a civilian government comes to power. At the heart of this unravelling is a historical lack of trust between the Tatmadaw and Myanmar’s many ethnic minorities.
Read MoreWritten by Thomas Bruce
It also demonstrates its agency will not be constrained by the alliance system of the United States’ or by close economic relations with China. Since Southeast Asian states routinely indicate they have no interest in choosing sides, a ‘hedging’ preference will continue to make Russia an attractive third partner.
Read MoreWritten by Hunter Marston
Kurt Campbell, who Biden named Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, was an integral architect of the Obama administration’s “opening to Burma”. He will likely have some sleepless nights once again designing US Myanmar policy. It is unclear what options Washington now has left beyond widening sanctions against the military.
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