2016 Arbitral Award — 9DASHLINE

The Cost of Consistency: Beijing’s Miscalculation in the First Island Chain

Written by Herman S. Taylor

The dispute with the Philippines was temporarily set aside rather than settled, leaving room for neutrality. Then Beijing brought the same coercive reflex to Manila that it used everywhere. The failure was not China’s refusal to yield its claims, but its inability to adopt softer tactics.

Southeast Asia9DLSeptember 1, 2026Philippine sea, South China Sea (SCS), Chinese coercion, US-Philippines, 2016 Arbitral Award, First Island Chain, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo Duterte, Marcos Jr., Philippine Offshore Gambling Operators, fishermen, Northern Luzon, maritime trade, pacific, 9DASHLINE, The Cost of Consistency Beijing’s Miscalculation in the First Island Chain, Herman S. Taylor

In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?

We invite several experts to assess the prospects for stability in 2024.

Editor's Picks, Pacific9DLFebruary 2, 2024In Forum: 2024 — South China Sea at a crossroads, 9DASHLINE, south china sea, SCS, China, Philippine, Philippine navy, The Philippines, vessels, Chinese vessels, freedom of navigation, United States, trade, shipping, US-China competition, escalation, CYBER, ELINA NOOR, non-claimant states, Code of Conduct (CoC), Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations, military, international law, cross-domain, ASEAN, norms of responsible state behaviour, 2015 United Nations Group of Governmental Experts of Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, APILA SANGTAM, Beijing, Vietnam, India, Manila, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), UNCLOS, 2016 Arbitral Award, comprehensive strategic partnership, 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, grey zone, Exclusive Economic Zones, Indonesia, Malaysia, NONG HONG, geopolitical rivalry, naval, military exercises, oil and gas exploitation, COLLIN KOH, unilateral, multilateral, littorals, Second Thomas Shoal, Taiwan, PRATNASHREE BASU, Belt and Road Initiative, strategic autonomy, de-escalation, containment, Japan, rules-based order, UN, United Nations, In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads

South China Sea dispute: The three challenges to ASEAN’s position

Written by Kalvin Fung

ASEAN members such as Indonesia might find themselves mired in a quagmire: recognising a regime lambasted for its terrible human rights record might save ASEAN unity but could draw further condemnation from the West and international media; rejecting the junta might jeopardise regional unity and delay the long-awaited COC.