In Forum: 2024 — the South China Sea at a crossroads
In Forum: 2024 —
The South China Sea
at a crossroads
2 February 2024
The South China Sea remains one of the most potentially explosive regions in the world. Last year saw rising tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed waters with several incidents involving hostile Chinese vessels. Other countries also continue to stake their claims in the region and the ongoing ‘freedom of navigation’ operations by the United States shape one of the world’s busiest trade and shipping routes. The situation in the South China Sea unites the worst of two worlds: an entrenched conflict that remains unresolved despite decades of mediatory efforts and new dynamics such as increased US-China competition or the Russia-Ukraine war.
In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess the prospects for stability in the South China Sea in 2024. What role can regional actors and organisations play in de-escalating the conflict and putting an end to the escalatory trends witnessed in 2023?
THE CYBER DOMAIN IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ELINA NOOR — SENIOR FELLOW, ASIA PROGRAM, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
If last year’s trajectory holds, we can expect more confrontations in the South China Sea that could result in miscalculation and/or further draw in the participation of non-claimant states. In addition to complicating the region’s already fraught seascape, these developments would also impact the ongoing Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations.
One of the under-explored drivers of the dispute has been how much information collection in the cyber domain has contributed to the physical and military build-up in the South China Sea. Although Southeast Asian states have typically been reluctant to discuss political and security sensitivities related to cyber operations, discussions or table-top exercises on the application of international law to specific cross-domain scenarios in the South China Sea could pick up from, and expand upon, ASEAN’s 2018 endorsement of the 11 norms of responsible state behaviour recommended by the 2015 United Nations Group of Governmental Experts of Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security. This would not only help clarify ASEAN member-states’ positions on an evolving, international topic of debate but also determine parameters to be applied in real-time in the South China Sea. Establishing a normative and legal framework for the cyber dimension of the South China Sea dispute could also strengthen CoC negotiations by acknowledging increasing cross-domain realities while lending a more forward-leaning imprimatur to the CoC.
ANOTHER YEAR OF DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
DR APILA SANGTAM — ASSOCIATE FELLOW, INDO-PACIFIC CLUSTER, NATIONAL MARITIME FOUNDATION (NMF)
It is challenging to draw any conclusions for 2024 about the South China Sea dispute due to its complexities. Examining the current scenario, China is not inclined to make negotiations easy for ASEAN member states. Beijing is well aware that countries like the Philippines and Vietnam seek major powers' involvement in the South China Sea dispute, particularly the United States and India. Beijing has time and again accused the United States of provoking Manila over the lingering South China Sea dispute. It is a known fact that the United States desires India to play a key role and act as a contender against China. To show its support, India, for the first time, explicitly called for adherence not only to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but also to the 2016 Arbitral Award in the Joint Statement issued in June 2023. On the other hand, the United States has strengthened its relations with Vietnam and the Philippines. The United States and Vietnam elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership on 10 September 2023. Regarding the Philippines, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. This strengthened position with the United States and India by the Philippines and Vietnam could make China even more wary.
While there is limited optimism for permanent solutions, positive developments are emerging among ASEAN member states. Notably, the new maritime agreement between the Philippines and Vietnam has the potential to introduce a new dynamic in the waterway dispute. During the recent visit of the Indonesian president to Manila, discussions about the South China Sea dispute took place, resulting in an agreement to strengthen security ties and collaborate on various fronts. Strengthening security ties among ASEAN member states could also help to put pressure on China’s aggression.
However, resolving the tensions in the South China Sea or reaching a consensus on a Code of Conduct (COC) in 2024 becomes increasingly unlikely if China persists in employing 'grey zone' tactics in the region, particularly within the Exclusive Economic Zones of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
MORE UNILATERAL ACTIONS AHEAD
DR NONG HONG — EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AND SENIOR FELLOW, INSTITUTE FOR CHINA-AMERICA STUDIES
Reflecting on the events of 2023, the South China Sea experienced a period of relative stability and manageability, but unforeseen incidents hinted at a pivotal juncture, signalling the onset of significant changes. In 2024, the South China Sea is set to persist as a prominent focal point of contention, amplifying the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, as well as among the coastal states in the region.
The competition between China and the United States, characterised by the escalation of their naval presence and active participation in military exercises, is anticipated to endure throughout 2024, signalling a sustained and potentially intensifying competition for dominance in the South China Sea. Furthermore, the upcoming year is expected to witness a concentrated surge of unilateral actions marked by the 'assertion of rights' and 'expansion of rights' by claimant countries. This includes unilateral oil and gas exploitation by certain nations, and the reinforcement and expansion of occupied features, among other developments. The South China Sea in 2024 is thus poised for continued volatility and complex dynamics as geopolitical forces vie for influence in this strategically significant maritime expanse.
Efforts to alleviate tension and enhance manageability in the South China Sea will necessitate strategic adjustments from both China as a coastal state and the United States as a user state. It is crucial to recognise that at the heart of the US-China maritime rivalry lies the distribution of power rather than disputes over sovereignty or freedom of navigation. Should China and the United States fail to effectively address each other's reasonable concerns and abstain from meaningful discussions while solely emphasising their respective principles and stances, the inevitable consequence over time would be the escalating intensity of maritime conflicts and confrontations between the two countries.
China and the United States both hold a vested interest in upholding an open and harmonious regional maritime order. The contemporary rivalry between these nations predominantly centres around disputes concerning order and regulations. To ensure a stable maritime relationship, it's imperative to establish a mutually recognised set of rules or an order embraced by both countries and the broader international community. Such an order, grounded in shared principles, respect for international law, and the interests of all stakeholders, can only be realised through extensive negotiations and dialogue.
In addition to strategically managing the relationship between China and the United States, it is imperative to effectively navigate the relationships among all coastal states. Recognising the challenges associated with resolving territorial and maritime disputes in the short term, the most pivotal approach lies in fostering regional cooperation. Such collaboration is indispensable for upholding regional stability, implementing sustainable resource management, safeguarding the environment, ensuring maritime safety, and fostering economic prosperity.
A YEAR OF UNCERTAINTY IN A REGION OF TENSIONS
DR COLLIN KOH — SENIOR FELLOW, COORDINATOR OF PROJECTS (NAVAL/MARITIME AFFAIRS), S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
The South China Sea situation in 2024 looks set to remain one of uncertainty. Of the various disputes between the concerned littorals within this setup, tensions between China and the Philippines represent the most worrisome development. Beijing is not exhibiting any signs of letting up on its coercive posture in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, especially over the Second Thomas Shoal. Manila is also not showing any indication of abandoning its push to assert itself, especially over the said feature — going by the latest public remarks by the top Philippine military leadership about developing all Filipino-occupied features in the SCS, including Second Thomas Shoal, for which plans were already earmarked for eventually building a permanent structure.
Given the potentially incendiary situation that may unfold, one might rely on some inhibiting factors. The first would be China’s likely preoccupation with its own economic difficulties and of course, Taiwan following the latest election outcome. The second would be continued engagements with Southeast Asian parties in the SCS by extra-regional actors, not least the United States — which could well serve as at least a limited deterrent against Beijing, even if such activities like joint patrols with the Philippines may be accused by China as provocative. Last but not least, is continued ASEAN-China negotiations on the proposed Code of Conduct. Until 2026, the envisaged year when the 11 parties expect to conclude talks, the various SCS claimants look set to continue improving and consolidating their respective positions. But the process itself is likely to ameliorate the risk of tensions escalating past the threshold into outright armed conflict.
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN 2024: BALANCING ON THE BRINK OF DIPLOMACY AND POWER
PRATNASHREE BASU — ASSOCIATE FELLOW, CNED, OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
In 2023, the South China Sea continued to be a flashpoint witnessing escalatory trends involving multiple actors characterised by increased militarisation, the continuation of assertive territorial claims, and sporadic diplomatic confrontations. The year in particular witnessed several near-collision incidents with tensions frequently on a high between Beijing and Manila. In 2024, we can expect a continuation of these trends with China likely to maintain, if not intensify, its assertive stance, deploying a mix of military presence and economic diplomacy to assert its claims. This approach is twofold: reinforcing its presence on reclaimed islands and utilising economic corridors, like the Belt and Road Initiative, to entwine regional economies with its strategic objectives.
Regional economies, while individually weaker, will seek to balance their economic dependencies on China and their strategic autonomy, leading to a mosaic of alignments and alliances. All of these alignments, which have assumed various manifestations, have a role to play in the containment or de-escalation of tensions. Japan, in particular, has a pivotal part in cohering the region as demonstrated by the evolution of its Indo-Pacific strategy and vision. The United States, as a pivotal extra-regional actor, will continue to assert freedom of navigation operations, thereby challenging China's maritime claims. This role, also undertaken by countries like India and even those not geographically proximate, is crucial for maintaining the maritime rules-based order. Going forward, the role of international bodies like ASEAN and the UN in mediating these tensions will be pivotal, although their effectiveness will depend on the willingness of the involved parties to engage in multilateral dialogue.
The path to de-escalation lies in fostering an environment where mutual benefits are recognised, and disputes are addressed through diplomatic channels rather than unilateral actions. The international community's role in facilitating this process, while respecting the sovereignty and concerns of all stakeholders, is crucial for the stability of this strategically significant region.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform. Image credit: Flickr/U.S. Pacific Fleet.