With the exclusion of Myanmar’s junta, can ASEAN remain relevant and effective in the Myanmar crisis?
With the exclusion of Myanmar’s junta, can ASEAN remain relevant and effective in the Myanmar crisis?
WRITTEN BY JOY JOY
18 November 2021
After an emergency meeting on 15 October, nine foreign ministers of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states decided to exclude Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, from its biannual summit later in the month. ASEAN’s decision was welcomed by many including Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) and civil society organisations (CSOs). However, ASEAN could and should utilise this momentum to effectively help resolve the crisis and bring Myanmar’s junta to the negotiating table.
The necessity
In this rare rebuke of Myanmar, ASEAN may have preserved its credibility as a relevant regional organisation and prevented the ‘awkward’ interactions between the junta and the world leaders who are keen on punishing them for their actions. ASEAN had been under enormous pressure both internally and externally to take stronger actions in helping mediate and resolve the crisis in Myanmar. With little progress being made to accomplish the five-point consensus agreed to by the junta in April, the exclusion of the junta provided ASEAN with the ‘stick’ and momentum to continue to exert pressure on the coup-makers in Myanmar.
Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people.
In the era of increasing Sino-US competition and threat to ASEAN centrality in the region, ASEAN’s move has retained its relevance and to a certain extent, showed that it can be effective in dealing with the crisis in Myanmar. The exclusion also comes at a crucial time when both the junta and the NUG are seeking greater recognition from the international community.
Reactions
Predictably, ASEAN’s exclusion of Min Aung Hlaing at the ASEAN Summit was rejected by the junta. The junta denied ASEAN’s allegation that it was not compliant with the five-point consensus and asserted that the exclusion was a breach of ASEAN’s non-interference norm in the internal affairs of its members. In the meantime, the NUG welcomed ASEAN’s decision to invite a non-political representative to the Summit and its related meetings and even appointed its own Ambassador to ASEAN. While it may look like a political victory for the NUG, ASEAN has yet to engage with the NUG on substantive issues despite calls from groups like the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) to meet with the NUG.
The United States supported ASEAN’s exclusion of Min Aung Hlaing at the Summit and continued to rally behind ASEAN’s leadership in resolving the crisis in Myanmar. In recent months, US officials from the State Department and the National Security Council have engaged with members of the NUG independently. The US’s support for ASEAN’s leadership, as well as support from the EU, China, Japan, and other regional powers, will bolster ASEAN’s credibility in this crisis. The US government has also engaged with individual ASEAN members reiterating its support for ASEAN centrality in pushing for a resolution on Myanmar during high-level official visits in the region.
However, the US must find common ground to work together with China and ASEAN’s other partners on the Myanmar crisis within the organisation’s framework. Issues such as distributing Covid-19 vaccines, providing cross-border humanitarian aid, and protecting refugees and asylum seekers are some areas in which ASEAN and its international partners could cooperate. Success in these areas can spur greater confidence and trust among ASEAN and its partners to collaborate on high-level political issues in Myanmar.
What comes next
Despite protesting against ASEAN’s decision, Myanmar’s junta continues to commit atrocities against its population. In recent weeks, junta forces have destroyed hundreds of homes in Thantlang Township, Chin State, during its clearance operation, forcing thousands of residents to flee. The junta is also mobilising reinforcements for more clearance operations in regions where they have faced fierce resistance from the People’s Defence Force (PDF). All these developments suggest that the junta will continue to resist international pressure and defend its actions under the guise of ‘internal affairs’ at the ASEAN. This would be an important test of ASEAN’s willingness to stick to its stronger stance currently in place.
ASEAN should remain steadfast in its resolve. Continuing to exclude Myanmar’s junta from future ASEAN-related summits and meetings would isolate the junta and deny its attempt at gaining international recognition. The UK has already disinvited the junta from attending the G7-ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in December. Sustained pressure and exclusion could force the junta to comply with the terms of the five-point consensus.
Cambodia, the incoming chair of ASEAN, has also signalled that it will keep up the pressure on Myanmar’s junta. The country’s Foreign Minister, Prak Sokhonn, has said that Cambodia will appoint a new special envoy to Myanmar in early 2022 and push the junta to open dialogue with its opponents. Some are sceptical of what Cambodia can accomplish given its own poor human rights records and undemocratic leanings. However, Cambodia is unlikely to do anything that would diminish or taint its reputation after ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement on the South China Sea dispute under its chairmanship in 2012. ASEAN itself is at stake if it continues to remain ineffective in dealing with the crisis. Its credibility will diminish further in the eyes of the international community and its own people.
Sustained diplomatic isolation and pressure on the junta in the meantime will be effective if other major countries support ASEAN’s lead on this. ASEAN members must ensure that the organisation maintains its current pressure on the junta until the junta complies with the five-point consensus. Maritime ASEAN members must continue to convince other members to remain tough on the junta while preventing external powers to undermine ASEAN’s efforts.
Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people. They must listen to the voices of the Burmese people and their democratically-elected representatives while making meaningful engagements to help resolve the crisis. The people of Myanmar (including but not limited to the NUG, CSOs, ethnic groups, and ordinary citizens, etc.) must be supported and empowered to make their political determination. At this critical juncture, ASEAN and the international community can play an important role in helping end the crisis.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Joy Joy is an independent analyst focusing on China’s foreign relations with neighbouring countries. He primarily focuses on China’s engagements in Southeast Asia and China-Myanmar relations. Image credit: Wikimedia.