Written by Hunter Marston
The root of Myanmar’s crisis is political: as long as the military holds power, the country will be at war, and the economy will underperform.
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Great power politics in the Indo-Pacific has put the future and centrality of ASEAN under some doubt. How can ASEAN negotiate greater space for itself amid the intensifying great power rivalry?
9DASHLINE asks a select group of experts whether ASEAN can withstand these internal and external pressures.
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Written by Andreyka Natalegawa
Prabowo’s controversial proposal, borne out of his efforts to refashion himself as a statesman even while contradicting his own government, underscores the fact that Indonesia will face serious growing pains in its pursuit of a more active regional and global role.
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Written by Sadia Korobi
ASEAN members must realise that short-term economic benefits in Myanmar cannot overshadow the history of ineffective and unreliable military regimes in the country since independence.
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With state of emergency set to end at the end of January and the military junta pledging to hold general elections by August 2023, 9DASHLINE asks experts what we should expect from the upcoming elections in Myanmar and whether there is any prospect for peace in the country.
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Written by Kristina Kironska
The military regime is worried that the Russian supply of hardware to Myanmar could slow down as it is now needed elsewhere. Moreover, Western financial sanctions on Russia are worrying for the junta as many generals and Myanmar’s arms dealers have bank accounts in Russia.
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Written by Angshuman Choudhury
Long wars become even more difficult for the primary aggressors when they lack local support or popular legitimacy, which is certainly the case with the military in Myanmar today.
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Written by Zachary Abuza
Entering the second year, one thing is certain: the military is getting both frustrated and desperate. Generals are being rotated and replaced with loyalists. The army will increase attacks on civilians, and that will further weaken morale for all but the most hardcore and indoctrinated.
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Although Indonesia, which accounts for half of ASEAN’s size and wealth, is the natural leader of the grouping when it does not actively lead, the group is further weakened.
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Written by Joy Joy
Most importantly, ASEAN and the international community must recognise that the future of Myanmar belongs to its people. They must listen to the voices of the Burmese people and their democratically-elected representatives while making meaningful engagements to help resolve the crisis.
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