Six months on: Cambodia as ASEAN chair

6 June 2022

This year, Cambodia serves as the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for the third time. The last time Cambodia served in this role, in 2012, it was fiercely criticised for ASEAN’s inability to issue its joint statement for the first time in its history, due mainly to China’s influence. Before Cambodia assumed its ASEAN chairmanship this year, there was much speculation and analysis on how the country would lead the bloc in addressing regional and global challenges, and whether the grouping would face similar problems under Cambodia’s chairmanship as it did in 2012. Although no one is certain about what will happen in the next six months, Cambodia’s remaining chairmanship will be beset with greater challenges.

What’s happened so far?

At the start of his chairmanship, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen announced that he would visit Myanmar to find solutions to the country’s crisis, triggered by a military coup in early 2021 led by General Min Aung Hlaing. Hun Sen’s Myanmar visit drew more criticism than praise. The criticism centred around the fact that Cambodia employed “cowboy diplomacy” and engaged with Myanmar without ASEAN consensus. Besides news about the Myanmar crisis and how Cambodia took the initiative to deal with it, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat, issues surrounding the South China Sea disputes, the bloc’s responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the ASEAN-US Special Summit have been high on the ASEAN agenda. Initially, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat was scheduled to take place in Phnom Penh in January, but it was postponed due to the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ work commitments and travel schedules. However, some analysts pointed to disagreements within the bloc over whether to allow Myanmar to join the meetings as the reason for the delay. The annual retreat was held in February in a hybrid format but without Myanmar's representative.

““Although there is speculation that US President Joe Biden will attend the East Asia Summit, will he be willing to sit for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin or his substitute?””

The rescheduling of the long-awaited ASEAN-US Special Summit also made headlines. Yet the Summit finally took place between 12-13 May amid mixed relations between ASEAN and the US due to China’s growing influence, and reports of the troubled relations between Cambodia and the US, driven by various issues ranging from fluctuating human rights situations in Cambodia and geopolitical consequences. Some analysts argued that the ASEAN-US Summit provided opportunities for Cambodia as ASEAN chair to improve its relations with the US and for ASEAN to upgrade the ASEAN-US relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. However, while the US pledged a USD 150 million development package to ASEAN, the outcomes of the Summit fell short of any meaningful bilateral meetings and concrete economic engagement plans the US needs to pursue to maintain relevance and influence in Southeast Asia.

The next six months

As Cambodia has served as the ASEAN chair for almost six months, there are questions about how the country will lead the bloc in the remaining six months. The key challenges for Cambodia and ASEAN have remained the same: addressing the Myanmar crisis, accelerating the conclusion of the Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea, and navigating regional and global challenges. For sure, the Myanmar crisis will remain a thorn in the side of ASEAN and will continue to trouble Cambodia’s chairmanship throughout the year. Cambodia’s efforts to bring Myanmar to the discussion table appear to be in vain, as military-ruled Myanmar seems to be unwilling to fully implement the ASEAN five-point consensus. Cambodia, therefore, needs to continue to engage ASEAN and relevant parties to address the Myanmar crisis.

Although Cambodia has expressed hope to conclude the CoC in the South China Sea this year, the chance of success seems slim. The conclusion of the CoC relies on the willingness of China and the ASEAN claimant states, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam. Philippine President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently said that he would uphold the South China Sea ruling against China and would not compromise his country's sovereignty. Vietnam’s tilt toward the US in recent years will also make it less acquiescent to China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. However, it will take more time for all parties to resolve their differences to reach an agreement. Growing geopolitical challenges, including the United States’ assertion of its freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, may serve as barriers to the CoC negotiations. However, as a non-claimant state and a close Chinese ally, Cambodia can serve as a mediator and push for the conclusion of the CoC this year, an outcome that would enhance its image in the region.

As Cambodia and ASEAN look to the grouping’s high-level meetings later this year, it remains to be seen how the bloc can stick to its ASEAN Way and promote its centrality. The COVID-19 pandemic is still ravaging the region, affecting the possibility of economic recovery post-pandemic. Regional and global challenges, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the rise of authoritarianism in the region, and issues surrounding climate change, environmental degradation, and regional security, remain key challenges ASEAN needs to deal with. Cambodia will therefore find itself in a very challenging position to host the ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit later this year. One obvious challenge is whether to invite the Myanmar junta to the summits; another is to navigate the challenges related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although there is speculation that US President Joe Biden will attend the East Asia Summit, will he be willing to sit for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin or his substitute? Cambodia will have to balance multiple pressures while hosting these high-level meetings.

What needs to be done?

As ASEAN chair, Cambodia plays an important role in taking the lead to bring all the issues above to the discussion. This means that a small state like Cambodia needs to step up to project itself as a capable player in the region. This is important as Cambodia has tried to portray itself as “a small country with a big heart”. Although Cambodia has to some extent succeeded in creating that positive image, there are many challenges ahead. As a close ally of China, Cambodia can leverage its small state power for its strategic interests. Yet, at the same time, it needs to walk a diplomatic tightrope to ensure its relations with great powers, such as the US and China are on good terms. Phnom Penh also needs to maintain good ties with regional powers like Japan that continue to play a crucial role in shaping development trajectories and security dynamics in the region.

In addition, Cambodia should not forget the problems in its backyard. It needs to strategically manage its complex trilateral relations with China and Vietnam, as both countries play vital roles in its economic and security success. Phnom Penh also must address its domestic politics that continue to shape its foreign relations, particularly with the US and its allies. For the remaining six months as ASEAN chair, Cambodia will need to be ready for the above challenges, especially when it plays host to the high-level summits later this year. Whether it will emerge successful from its ASEAN chairmanship relies on the capability of its leaders and top diplomats to navigate complex regional and international challenges.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Kimkong Heng is a visiting senior research fellow at the Cambodia Development Center and a co-founder of the Cambodian Education Forum. He is a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland and a recipient of the Australia Awards Scholarship. Image credit: Flickr/US Department of State.