Resets and challenges: Implications of Australia’s 2022 federal election

3 June 2022

The Australian Labor Party has been declared the winner of the 2022 federal election, successfully gaining a majority in the House of Representatives. The results are fascinating on several fronts. For an election campaign intended to be a so-called ‘khaki’ election focused on matters of national security, such issues were not particularly relevant to the way people voted. The determining issues were instead climate change and the cost of living. Yet, given the timing of the Quad meeting, foreign affairs have dominated the news since the election. Mere hours after being sworn in, new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong were on a plane heading for Tokyo.

In a speech before the election campaign, Albanese noted the “three central components of Labor foreign policy” as being the alliance with the United States, regional cooperation and multilateralism. While there will be considerable continuity from the previous government on the alliance and the AUKUS partnership, we are likely to see a new approach to the region, a re-energisation of soft power and diplomacy and a normalisation of Australia’s stance on climate change.

AUKUS and the alliance

Labor will continue to double down on the US alliance. They see US strategic and economic engagement in the region as necessary for the stability of the Indo-Pacific. The key change from the previous government will be bringing climate change into the alliance mix, with Albanese stating that “on coming to office, I will make comprehensive co-operation on climate change a hallmark of Alliance co-operation”. AUKUS isn’t going anywhere either. Technological cooperation has become a central focus for the US, the UK, and Australia, and this will only continue. All three states view new and emerging technologies as the primary mechanism through which they can offset the narrowing technology gap between them and their competitors, in a strategic environment they all see as increasingly uncertain and dangerous.

Labor has made it quite clear that they see the value in diplomacy and soft power, the former of which languished under the previous government while the latter was openly derided.

The nuclear-powered submarines aspect of AUKUS, however, will continue to have all the same difficulties they had before. Australia’s poor track record with submarine acquisition will remain a haunting spectre for the new government. A further difficulty lies with the fact that the announcement of AUKUS increased strategic tensions with no new capabilities to manage those tensions actually acquired. This decision was a ghastly act of what Van Jackson calls “vulgar balancing”, or acquiring new capabilities with no underlying concept to explain what the capability is for or why it was chosen. Nuclear matters may also come to be more contentious in the alliance context, given Albanese’s stated commitment to sign and ratify the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Despite the various difficulties, the submarines are something Labor is unlikely to try and walk back from, at least in the near term. However, it is possible that the plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines could slowly disintegrate and “be quietly deferred to the never-never”. A reset in the relationship with France will at least be easy, with Macron committing to begin rebuilding a relationship grounded in “trust and respect”.

A reset of regional relationships

The new government has committed to renewing relations with Southeast Asia and revitalising the Step-Up in the Pacific. Immediately following her return from the Quad, Foreign Minister Penny Wong set off for Fiji. Here, she reaffirmed the new Labor government’s commitment to the Boe Declaration, which states that “climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific and our commitment to progress the implementation of the Paris Agreement”. She further emphasised that climate change would be a central focus and thanked Pacific states for their climate leadership.

The new government is keen to re-energise relations with Southeast Asia, which suffered from neglect as attention and resources were directed to the Pacific. Among the promises made so far are AUD 470 million in foreign aid, the creation of a Southeast Asia office in DFAT, the development of a comprehensive ASEAN Economic Strategy and a roving ASEAN envoy. Teesta Prakash warns that aid alone will not be sufficient to improve relations with Southeast Asia given the state of the existing “trust deficit”. Slow and hard work will have to be put into rebuilding relationships. Balancing the concern of some in the region about AUKUS, and managing strategic competition while rebuilding personal ties at the elite level, will be a challenge. However, the sincere intent to do so is certainly a good starting point.

Climate change

Climate change will be central in two ways: a reset and a challenge. The reset lies in the normalisation of Australia’s position, a breath of fresh air after being a belligerent and destructive outlier. There will be a honeymoon period of relief, particularly for allies such as the US and UK who had been pushing for Australia to do more. At the same time, Labor will face the challenge of walking the talk on climate change. They cannot hope that they will be given an overly long reprieve for being better than their predecessors, given the bar was set at such subterranean depths. Albanese will have to show more leadership than simply being a man who hasn’t waved a piece of coal around in parliament.

While the normalisation of Australia’s position is welcome, the goal of reducing carbon emissions (43 per cent by 2030) is unambitious and inadequate. During Wong’s visit to Fiji, Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum Henry Puna told her “this is an issue so critical for our survival and we cannot settle for anything less than urgent climate action now”. Labor’s commitment, insufficient to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees celsius, is unlikely to be considered ‘urgent climate action’. Despite a honeymoon period of sheer relief, climate change will remain a central challenge for the new government.

Diplomacy and soft power

Labor has made it quite clear that they see the value in diplomacy and soft power, the former of which languished under the previous government while the latter was openly derided. Depending on how you measure it, DFAT is smaller in absolute terms compared to 15 years ago and the 2022 federal budget drove the nail further into the coffin of Australia’s diplomatic capacity. The new government has committed to rebuilding diplomatic capabilities, although this will be a slow process. Another upside for diplomacy and soft power is that the new foreign affairs minister will presumably be more influential within her own government than the last. She clearly has a much stronger relationship with Albanese than the former foreign minister had with her prime ministerial counterpart. Further, Penny Wong has been foreign minister in waiting for a long time now, and the work she has put in is clear.

A refreshed approach to the world

In the broad scheme of things, not a lot will change: the alliance is central, AUKUS will continue to grow and expand, defence spending will increase and strategic competition will remain a challenge. On the other hand, the difference in the tone and form of Australia’s conduct will be substantial — from the normalisation of climate change to the re-energisation of diplomacy and the First Nations foreign policy.

Labor’s belief in the value of soft power, an embrace of diplomacy and desire to broadcast Australia’s multiculturalism to the world will create a wider array of options in responding to the challenges facing Australia than the more purely militarised national security approach of the previous government. This will allow for more flexibility in responding to challenges and open up new opportunities for engaging with the world in a more nimble, nuanced and respectful manner. How successful this will be or how the new government will respond to unexpected crises remains to be seen but it is certainly a refreshing starting point.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Sian Troath is a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Canterbury working on the Mapping Laws research project, and an adjunct researcher at Flinders University. Her research focuses on Australian foreign and defence policy, lethal autonomous weapons systems, and theories of trust in international relations. Image credit: Flickr/Alpha.