This month’s brief examines a system under increased strain: as conflict in the Middle East drives energy shocks and exposes fragile supply chains, Indo-Pacific states are navigating growing constraints — hedging across partners, absorbing economic pressure, and exploring alternative routes such as the Arctic’s emerging “Polar Silk Road” to preserve access, resilience, and strategic flexibility.

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Russia and China present a united front to the west – but there’s plenty of potential for friction

Written by Natasha Kuhrt

Nor has Russia been able to implement many of its ambitious plans for its ailing far eastern region, which was once central to the Asian pivot. By continuing with its Sinocentric approach, Moscow ensures the continuing overdependence on China, and so the impossibility of modernisation and diversification of the economy.