Resilience and deterrence to guide Taiwan’s future
Resilience and deterrence to guide Taiwan’s future
WRITTEN BY ZSUZSA ANNA FERENCZY
25 October 2022
In her opening address at this year’s Double Tenth National Day Celebration, President Tsai Ing-wen said that while for the past two years the world struggled with the pandemic, the 23 million citizens of Taiwan have taken a step forward and made their country a better place. Taiwan’s economy grew at a rate of 6.57 per cent in 2021, supporting the construction of a “more well-rounded social safety net,” she explained. The next challenge remains to build a resilient nation that will ensure a “better Taiwan for the world,” she added.
Strong leadership and a high level of two-way trust between the government and society have contributed to Taiwan’s achievements and brought it unprecedented global support, despite its diplomatic isolation. Yet, going forward, boosting resilience will not be sufficient to decrease the existential challenge that Taiwan is facing. Strengthening deterrence in the face of growing hostility and new threats is where Taiwan’s leaders and citizens must focus more of their energy, in close cooperation with trusted partners, including the European Union (EU). Resilience is key for effective deterrence, but one does not do well without the other. Taiwan needs them both, now.
Managing dependencies
In the context of a post-pandemic recovery, a worsening climate crisis, and rising economic inequality, governments across the world have turned building resilience into a central goal, key to a sustainable and inclusive growth agenda. But it was not until Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine was unleashed on 24 February that this trend received the level of attention it truly deserved. It pulled democracies with their vulnerabilities closer together in the face of a mounting authoritarian threat. For Europe, the war painfully revealed its dependence on Russian gas, which has coexisted with other strategic dependencies. Namely in rare earths, magnesium, and solar panels — the latter an area with a strong concentration of global production in China — but also in chemicals, cybersecurity, and IT software.
Strengthening deterrence in the face of growing hostility and new threats is where Taiwan’s leaders and citizens must focus more of their energy, in close cooperation with trusted partners, including the EU.
The war has also raised questions of long-term political, economic, and military resilience not only inside the EU but also in places such as Taiwan, burdened by its own interdependence with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) — another authoritarian power just 180 kilometres (111 miles) away. A strategic shift is taking shape globally, whereby democracy protection, rather than promotion, is moving closer to the centre of global politics. At the same time, supply chain reconfiguration aimed at mitigating risks linked to dependencies has become a top requirement.
Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific
Taiwan, a thriving democracy ranked as the world’s seventh most competitive economy has been living under an existential threat from the PRC for decades. Beijing has sought to undercut Taiwan’s capacity to decide its own future and has used a mix of grey zone activities in the process. These include economic statecraft combining generous economic incentives with coercion, cyber and information operations, and an escalation in its military provocations to deter Taiwanese independence, by imposing itself on the region while avoiding triggering conflict.
Although the war in Europe might be far away when seen from the Indo-Pacific, it has raised the same unavoidable questions concerning resilience and Taiwan’s future. The pandemic had already exposed the interdependence of the EU and its Indo-Pacific partners. As the largest investor in Taiwan, the EU also articulated its awareness of Taiwan’s relevance to its own security and prosperity in its Indo-Pacific Strategy released last year — a strategy the EU has yet to implement. In the face of growing hostility, Taiwan has displayed an incredible level of resilience in withstanding decades of pressure. Instead of being overtaken by fear and weakness, Taiwan has continued to pull strength from intimidation.
A resilient society for a resilient economy
“We came here with a very simple, very clear message. You are not alone. Europe is standing with you,” said Raphaël Glucksmann, leading the European Parliament’s first-ever official delegation to Taipei in November 2021. He stressed that the delegation was in Taipei to learn from Taiwan. President Tsai told the European legislators that Taiwan was “willing to share its experience in combating disinformation with our European friends”. A year earlier, the European Parliament’s first-ever stand-alone resolution on Taiwan had commended it for its success in fighting disinformation from the PRC, stressing that cooperation in this area is in the interest of both sides.
Taiwan has received global praise for its success in combating disinformation with transparency and technology, as well as by investing in fact-checking mechanisms and in media literacy education as vital tools to empower society. This has secured Taiwan’s societal resilience. Taiwan is proud of its people-public-private partnership. “#StrongerTogether, in this case, is more than a social media hashtag, it’s the very essence of the free world’s unshakeable belief that democracy can deliver,” explained Audrey Tang, Taiwan’s digital minister. Throughout the pandemic, Taiwan also benefitted from record exports responding to surging global demand for its technology components and products. Taiwan is home to the world’s leading semiconductor industry, making the most advanced semiconductors for automobiles, 5G, and smart devices. Its tech giants have emerged as global leaders in digitisation, which has contributed to Taiwan’s economic resilience.
Yet, Taiwan’s overreliance on China in trade creates vulnerabilities in its defence and economic security, a challenge all the more difficult to address given Taiwan’s relatively weak connections with the rest of the world. On a global scale, mutual dependencies in semiconductors will persist, due to geographic specialisations and deep interdependencies in the supply chain. Therefore, diversification of its trade and investment partners in the region through its New Southbound Policy, and beyond with EU member states, is not just an option, but a must for Taiwan.
The way toward deterrence
Diversification, even if done better and faster, will not be sufficient for Taiwan to stay resilient. This, however, is not a problem for Taiwan alone, but for all of its trade partners, including the EU. Given the level of economic interdependence between the EU and the Indo-Pacific, the EU has an interest in contributing to Taiwan’s deterrence capacity. More intense political and economic bilateral relations with Taiwan would be consistent with the European Parliament’s repeated calls to follow this path, and would also send a message to Beijing that EU member states will assert their right to cooperate with Taiwan.
Brussels should increase its close consultations with Taiwan in fighting the challenges emanating from disinformation, for example by focusing on media literacy, to weaken Beijing’s efforts to undermine their democracies. Brussels has already included Taiwan in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, with an explicit focus on resilience. In addition, the EU should initiate a bilateral Resilient Supply Chains Agreement with Taiwan to share best practices and explore further diversification opportunities for their supply chains. Taiwan’s greater involvement in regional and international platforms and initiatives aimed at reinforcing supply chain resilience will provide an additional layer of economic security for all, not just for Taiwan. As such, Taiwan could participate in the Supply Chains Resilience Initiative (SCRI) along with India, Japan, and Australia.
After failing to deter Russia from unleashing its brutal war on Ukraine, the EU has since adopted comprehensive sanctions that have helped to isolate Russia. Western export controls on technology and industrial components have already weakened Putin’s ability to sustain military operations. In addition, with its eighth round of sanctions adopted in October, the EU has for the first time extended the ban to imports of Russian steel products that have been processed in third countries. Accordingly, a Chinese steel product, for example, will not be able to enter the EU if made with Russian input. Secondary sanctions are a new reality in the EU’s sanctions regime, the deterrent effect of which is still to be seen.
Effective deterrence means having the ability to signal to the PRC that any benefits that Beijing may seek from attacking Taiwan will be outweighed by the costs that Taipei, together with its close partners, can impose on the PRC. Taiwan must adjust to the current military threats from the PRC by continuing to modernise its armed forces (which must include engaging the general population in civil defence and disaster relief). As Enoch Wu, founder of Forward Alliance, said: “the best way to deter military conflict is to demonstrate a credible national will to resist, by combining military readiness with civil preparedness”.
Taiwan has capitalised on the interdependencies between education, information, technology, and economic growth. Taiwan is in fact already a resilient nation. Together with its partners, it must now reinforce its deterrence. This will help “give the world an even better Taiwan”.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy is the Head of the Associate Network at 9DASHLINE and Assistant Professor at National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan. Image credit: Office of the President Republic of China (Taiwan).