Portugal needs a clear strategy for the Indo-Pacific
Portugal needs a clear strategy for the
Indo-Pacific
WRITTEN BY RITA DURÃO
7 March 2024
The Indo-Pacific offers Portugal avenues for economic, strategic, and cultural engagement that align with its broader foreign policy objectives. However, successive governments have struggled to fully harness the potential benefits that the Indo-Pacific offers. Influenced by its size, geographical location, and its foreign policy framework traditionally guided by its relationship with the European Union (EU), the ‘Atlantic front’ (the United States and NATO) and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP), the Indo-Pacific has been continuously relegated to the periphery of the country’s foreign policy priorities.
As Portugal prepares for snap elections on 10 March, party programs have largely bypassed the Indo-Pacific. For instance, the Socialist Party (PS) highlights the need to continue diplomatic efforts initiated by the previous government, emphasising the expansion of Portugal's diplomatic network in Asia. The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) prioritises the ‘Atlantic front’, and other smaller parties present opposite perspectives, with the Communist Party (PCP), under the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), advocating for non-alignment with specific blocs and focusing on enhancing relations with both China and India, specifically in economic terms. In contrast, the right-wing liberal party Liberal Initiative (IL) advocates for a “Risk Reduction Strategy” regarding China, citing concerns about perceived threats and the need for vigilance against Chinese influence within Portugal and Portuguese-speaking countries. The environmentalist party People Animals Nature (PAN) focuses on the need to condemn China’s violation of human rights.
Portugal has taken some incremental steps towards the region, indicating a recognition of the region’s growing importance. Despite geographical and resource limitations, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive action plan for the Indo-Pacific, guided by key ministries such as Foreign Affairs, Defence, Environment, and Economics. Portugal's pivot towards Asia, leveraging its historical, political, and cultural ties, aligns with its commitments to human rights, climate action, education, and cultural promotion, positioning the country as an active partner in the Indo-Pacific.
Portugal’s accomplishments in the Indo-Pacific
Portugal's approach towards the Indo-Pacific underscores a commitment to fostering bilateral and multilateral dialogue, cooperation, the promotion of human rights and a rules-based order. The country showcased its capacity to act as a ‘bridge builder’ when it hosted the 16th EU-India summit in Porto during the 2021 Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, elevating India’s role in contrast to a strict focus on China while reinforcing shared values such as democracy, the rule of law, tolerance, and human rights. Despite its strategic partnership with China, the historical connection to Macau, and integration into the Belt and Road Initiative, Portugal's approach towards China has undergone a soft distancing in recent years due to controversy surrounding the joint development of Portugal's 5G network and renewed US pressure on Europe (including Portugal) to scrap the deal. This situation reflects Portugal's dilemma in balancing its loyalty to its traditional ‘Atlantic front’ (NATO and US alliance) and the necessity to diversify partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Consolidating a strategy towards the Indo-Pacific would not only signify Portugal's commitment towards enhancing its global presence through a multilateral approach but also present opportunities for fostering economic growth, strengthening diplomatic ties, and promoting regional stability.
Portugal has shown intentions to bolster relations with like-minded partners such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations, even though the collapse of the government in November may have halted progress toward this endeavour, for example, in the case of Japan where preparations for a possible state visit appeared underway. Prime Minister António Costa's visit to South Korea in 2023 marked a significant step in boosting cooperation, resulting in memorandums on cooperation in key fields such as education, health, and digitalisation.
Additionally, Portugal has emphasised strengthening ties with Southeast Asia following the commemorative EU-ASEAN summit in 2022 and the country’s participation as an observer member in the G20 this year. Singapore has been a close partner, with its minister of foreign affairs having recently participated in the “Dialogue on Asia” section of the 2024 Diplomatic Seminar in Lisbon. Efforts to promote Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN (as the only Asian member of CPLP) further exemplify Portugal's commitment to fostering connections between different regional blocs. Portugal’s pivot to Southeast Asia extends to possible plans for opening an additional embassy in the region. This initiative, possibly involving the exchange of diplomatic representative offices with Vietnam, would enhance its diplomatic footprint in the region.
Portugal's trade relations with Asia have also undergone noticeable shifts over the past decade. The region’s share rose from nine to 11 per cent in the last ten years, making it the second-largest source of Portuguese imports, only behind Europe. While Asia is not yet a significant market for Portugal’s exports at five per cent (behind Europe, Africa, and the Americas), there has been a notable growth of 177 per cent in exports to ASEAN countries in this period. This surge resulted in ASEAN's share of total Asian exports from Portugal expanding from five per cent to eight per cent.
In contrast, Portugal’s presence in the security field is less tangible; its military participation in operations in Asia and South America accounts for only one per cent of its overall involvement. This is partially explained by the country’s preference towards a soft power approach in its foreign policy. Nevertheless, Portugal has signed defence cooperation agreements with India. It also participated in the Shangri-La Dialogue for the first time last year, where defence cooperation with Timor-Leste was highlighted as an example of Portugal’s foothold in the region.
Leveraging history towards constructive engagement
The importance of the Indo-Pacific is patent not only for economic reasons but also for political and security reasons. Economically, the region is a dynamic hub of trade and investment, home to some of the world's fastest-growing economies and vital maritime trade routes. Politically, it serves as a crucial arena where major powers such as China, India, Japan, and the United States interact, shaping the geopolitical landscape. Security-wise, the region faces diverse challenges, from territorial disputes to non-traditional security threats like cyberattacks and climate change impacts — it is this complex security landscape that has shaped the enhanced dialogue and cooperation between NATO, of which Portugal is a founding member, and its Indo-Pacific partners.
Portugal's legacy as a pioneer in globalisation, particularly through its extensive past maritime empire, provides a unique perspective on its role in the Indo-Pacific today. While this legacy includes colonialism, from which the country has tried to distance itself, it also offers valuable lessons for contemporary engagement. Macao's transition from Portuguese rule to China in 1999 is an example of peaceful diplomacy. By facilitating dialogue and promoting self-determination for East Timor, Portugal also demonstrated its commitment to stability and democracy in the region. These experiences underscore Portugal's potential role as a mediator and facilitator of diplomatic solutions in the broader Indo-Pacific.
While drawing on its historical role as a bridge between Europe and Asia, Portugal can also promote multilateral cooperation and leverage its strengths in maritime affairs, renewable energy, and cultural exchange to contribute positively to the Indo-Pacific's development and stability. With its strategic Atlantic location, and especially through the Sines Port, Portugal is well-positioned to facilitate economic partnerships and promote investment opportunities between Europe and Asia. China has recently shown interest in expanding cultural, scientific and economic ties with the Azores under its ‘blue economy’ partnership with Portugal. Portugal is also a major player in renewable energies, with growing investment by Portuguese companies such as EDP Renewables in countries like Singapore and Vietnam.
Further cooperation with the CPLP should become a priority in terms of Portugal’s foreign policy regarding the Indo-Pacific, as the CPLP provides a valuable platform for promoting cultural, economic, and diplomatic exchanges between Portuguese-speaking nations and Asian partners — Japan (in 2014) and India (in 2021) are currently the only Asian nations with observer status in the CPLP, with Indonesia preparing its own application and other countries such as South Korea having shown an interest in also obtaining this status.
Indo-Pacific as a decisive step for Portugal's next government
As Portugal approaches elections, the need for a comprehensive Indo-Pacific strategy should be debated. By recognising the importance of its historical legacy in Asia, Portugal can establish a coherent and valuable foreign policy approach towards the region. The country's tendency to focus extensively on domestic issues must not overshadow discussions on larger foreign policy matters. Initiating public discussions and forming a parliamentary committee dedicated to crafting an Indo-Pacific strategy would signify Portugal's commitment to this pivotal region. Conducting a comprehensive analysis and producing a specific document towards the region would enable better coordination of actions, facilitate the evaluation of past initiatives, and guide future steps across political, economic, security, and cultural domains. This would also ensure policy continuity regardless of government changes, fostering a coherent and enduring strategy towards the Indo-Pacific.
Portugal has been ready to formalise an Indo-Pacific strategy for some time now. While different views exist among various political parties, these should be discussed among government officials, political parties, academia, and even civil society. Consolidating a strategy towards the Indo-Pacific would not only signify Portugal's commitment towards enhancing its global presence through a multilateral approach but also present opportunities for fostering economic growth, strengthening diplomatic ties, and promoting regional stability. By leveraging historical connections and designing a clear path towards interaction with the Indo-Pacific, Portugal can transform this legacy into a more significant platform for fostering deeper relations with Asia based on democratic values and shared principles such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Portugal has the potential to play a constructive role in the Indo-Pacific, and the first step would be to design a clear strategy in line with its strategic interests and values as a European nation aiming to project itself to the world.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Rita Durão is a PhD candidate in International Relations at NOVA University of Lisbon and researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations (IPRI). Her doctoral thesis is financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and explores the nexus between national identity and nuclear policy issues in East Asia. Her research interests include security studies with a focus on the politics of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament and the changing security dynamics in East Asia, including the Korean peninsula and the North Korean nuclear issue, EU-Indo Pacific relations and contemporary Portugal-Asia relations more broadly. Image credit: Flickr/luciano cavaca.