Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest
Papua New Guinea: The new epicentre of the Pacific contest
WRITTEN BY THIERRY LEPANI
19 June 2023
The global tussle for influence between China and the United States is progressively shifting closer to the shores of the Pacific. Papua New Guinea (PNG), the largest island in the Pacific, is fast becoming the epicentre of the Chinese-American regional tug-of-war. With PNG’s closeness to Australia (at their nearest point the two countries are just kilometres apart) and regional strength as a leading economy in the Pacific, PNG is the global superpowers’ gateway to Pacific influence. This May, we clearly saw this notion highlighted. Over 20-22 May, PNG’s capital, Port Moresby, played host to the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) Summit, which was attended by fourteen Pacific Island nations, and which saw the inaugural visit of India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.
Before this, the news of this meeting of Pacific nations was reason enough for US President Joe Biden to announce his visit to PNG and for him to be the first US president to visit the Pacific (besides Australia and New Zealand) while in office. The summit even saw the prime ministers of Australia and New Zealand announce their intention to tag along for the weekend of diplomacy. With Biden and his counterparts from Australia and India all intending to meet in Port Moresby before the Quad Summit in Australia, it was seen as a quasi-Quad meeting — only without Japan in the mix.
For PNG, this was major news. Having never hosted a US president before, preparations in Port Moresby were in full swing. The PNG government even went as far as announcing a public holiday in order to persuade city residents to stay off the streets and pave the way for security arrangements. For PNG, the signing of the US-PNG Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) was high on the agenda. The DCA would mark a new dawn of US-PNG relations and would be the basis for military cooperation between the two countries, including training and funding support for PNG’s defence force.
As China and the US push for greater influence in the Pacific, Papua New Guinea has seemingly become the first port of call for the two nations to solidify their standing in the region.
However, just days before the event, PNG was left disappointed after President Biden cancelled his visit due to domestic politics. Biden also pulled out of the Quad Summit, forcing Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to scrap the Quad Summit altogether.
In his stead, Biden dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken — a signal to PNG that their intentions to sign off on the DCA were still high on the agenda. To quell further disappointment in his Pacific counterparts, Biden announced that a second US-Pacific Island Country Summit would occur later this year — an unprecedented gesture, as their inaugural meeting happened just under a year ago in September 2022.
‘Friend to all, enemy to none’
In the lead-up to the summit, PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape maintained that his government was simply exercising its foreign policy of ‘Friend to all, enemy to none’. This has been seen as his way of maintaining neutrality while navigating the complexities of China and America’s proxy battle for influence.
Chinese President Xi Jinping last visited PNG in 2018, when the country hosted the APEC Summit. Similar to what Biden envisioned, President Xi had an audience with a handful of Pacific Island countries. In preparation for PNG’s event in 2018, China funded a number of infrastructure projects in Port Moresby, and Beijing has maintained comfortable relations with PNG ever since. This mainly entails being a reliable partner for the PNG government to fulfil infrastructural ambitions across the country through Chinese state construction companies. PNG adheres to the ‘One-China policy’, and a recent meeting between the two country’s foreign ministers forged an understanding that China would support the PNG government’s ambitious ‘Connect PNG’ road programme under the similar Belt and Road Initiative.
China certainly appears to be the Pacific’s new favoured partner for large-scale development support for local government’s aspirations. The Lowy Institute, in its annual Asia Power Index 2023, scored China above the United States in terms of ‘Economic Relationships and Diplomatic Influence’. In reaction to Biden’s planned trip to PNG, Beijing welcomed the visit, but warned that it would not tolerate “geopolitical games”. Two weeks after the conclusion of the FIPIC summit, a new Bank of China branch was opened in Port Moresby. Witnessed by Marape, the prime minister stressed the importance of maintaining PNG’s relations with China.
Agreement sparks disagreement
Just days before the signing of the Defense Cooperation Agreement, Marape was embroiled in widespread criticism, with demonstrations from student protesters opposing the DCA on grounds that it would trap PNG between Washington and Beijing. After a leaked draft of the DCA hit media outlets, opponents pointed to concerns about the level of influence that it would give the US military in PNG and lambasted the government for shrouding the document and its provisions in secrecy.
Marape addressed the apprehensions, saying that “the US military will only operate with approval from our military… The DCA does not stop us from working with all other nations, including China, and this DCA respects our principle and core foreign policy of ‘friends to all, enemies to none’”. A statement from the US State Department maintained the practicality of the DCA for PNG’s defence force, noting that “the US-PNG DCA will form the foundational framework around which our two countries will enhance security cooperation, further strengthen our bilateral relationship, improve the capacity of the PNG Defence Force, and increase stability and security in the region”.
For the US, it was not the reception they had hoped for, as the news of the disagreement toward the DCA overshadowed the signing itself. However, Biden’s cancellation very much downplayed the historical implications of what would have been a high point for US-PNG relations.
India emerges
If one conclusion can be drawn from the weekend of diplomacy, it is India’s emergence as a new partner for the Pacific. When it comes to relations for infrastructural development, Pacific Island countries are not spoilt for choice, as their existing partners are the usual suspects like China, the US, New Zealand, and Australia. India’s inclusion in the Pacific now adds more choices for Pacific nations when it comes to working with partners to further development aspirations.
Prime Minister Modi was bestowed with the highest title on offer, with PNG giving him the title of ‘Chief’. PNG acknowledged Modi’s efforts to strengthen relations between India and the Pacific, and in return, saw India announce new areas of partnership. India has cleverly put forward areas of partnership unique to India’s expertise, pledging to support the Pacific in a number of areas — from cybersecurity, education, health, and reciprocal visa arrangements for official travellers.
Compared to the typical Pacific partners, India’s partnership ambitions differ, as India is not a geographically close neighbour. However, to further its standing as a leading nation in the Asia-Pacific region, India recognises the importance of building its Pacific relations. For India, what it can get out of an increased partnership mostly concerns trade and investment, with New Delhi committing to increased commerce with the Pacific.
As China and the US push for greater influence in the Pacific, PNG has seemingly become the first port of call for the two nations to solidify their standing in the region. While Pacific Island countries take a neutral approach toward the current contest, the recent trend of increased displays of partnership could be an indication that PNG is fast becoming the epicentre of this diplomatic proxy battle.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Thierry Lepani is a political journalist from Papua New Guinea, with extensive experience covering PNG's political scene. Thierry worked at the Post-Courier, one of two PNG daily newspapers, as a political journalist alongside local and international media professionals. Thierry specialises in investigative reports and advocates for development in PNG's media industry.
Thierry is currently based in Canberra studying International Relations and Politics & Media and Communication at the University of Canberra and works at ABC's Pacific Beat radio program. He writes a weekly column titled 'Pacific Pivot' featured in the Post-Courier, focusing on regional geopolitics. Image credit: Flickr/U.S. Department of State.