Saudi–Pakistan strategic defence agreement: A dangerous gamble with regional consequences
Saudi-pakistan strategic defence agreement: a dangerous gamble with regional consequences
WRITTEN BY DR IMRAN KHURSHID
10 October 2025
The recent signing of a strategic mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on 17 September 2025 marks a significant geopolitical development. Islamabad and Riyadh have maintained close defence ties since the Cold War, with Pakistan providing military assistance, training, advisory support, and even stationing troops in Saudi Arabia — often in exchange for financial aid and political backing. The new pact formalises this cooperation into a binding framework, stipulating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”. Notably, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed that Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia under the terms of the agreement, heightening both regional security concerns and the risk of undermining the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
The agreement with Saudi Arabia introduces significant uncertainty into Pakistan’s defence posture. Unlike earlier informal arrangements, this pact establishes an institutionalised framework for bilateral cooperation with binding commitments. This shift means that, in the event of a crisis involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan would be compelled to respond militarily. This creates strategic vulnerabilities for Islamabad, which has now entered turbulent geopolitical waters and risks potentially being drawn into conflicts where its own national interests are marginal.
Strategic diversion and blood for dollars
Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia reinforces its ideological identity, as the state has consistently justified its existence on religious grounds. By portraying itself as a guardian of the Islam’s holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, the Pakistani establishment strengthens its claim to legitimacy — particularly amid internal discontent, public anger over the imprisonment of Imran Khan, and a crisis of legitimacy. Yet, beneath the optics of religious solidarity lies a dangerous reality. Many in Pakistan already fear the agreement could draw the country into Middle Eastern conflicts. If Pakistan becomes militarily involved in Yemen or elsewhere under this pact, it risks becoming a direct target for Iran and other actors with stakes in the region. This includes Israel, which has both the capability and precedent of projecting influence across the region through intelligence and covert operations. Given Pakistan’s proximity to Iran and the volatility of the region, the agreement could ultimately destabilise Islamabad more than it strengthens it.
In the end, this agreement is less a stabilising alliance than a strategic gamble — one that risks drawing Pakistan into conflicts beyond its capacity, while further complicating the already turbulent geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Middle East.
Additionally, the agreement shifts Pakistan’s strategic focus away from domestic challenges and its highly sensitive border with India. By diverting resources and attention to foreign engagements, Islamabad risks weakening its internal security and increasing its vulnerability to insurgency and economic instability.
The agreement also carries a moral cost, as it risks the loss of Pakistani lives in conflicts fought for others’ interests. Deploying military personnel abroad could place disproportionate burdens on ordinary soldiers and citizens, while financial and strategic benefits would primarily accrue to the ruling elite. Saudi Arabia may provide Islamabad with financial, diplomatic, and moral support, including symbolic gestures of solidarity on the Kashmir dispute. However, Riyadh is unlikely to put its own troops on the ground against India. The burden of blood will remain Pakistan’s alone.
In the past, Pakistan has often provided military assistance to other states in exchange for financial or strategic benefits — an approach that has at times complicated its external engagements and contributed to domestic challenges. Pakistan frequently cites the nearly 90,000 Pakistani lives lost during the so-called “War on Terror” as a consequence of its alignment with US policies. There is a serious possibility that similar strategic commitments could emerge under the new agreement.
Limits to Pakistan’s autonomy
The Middle East remains a volatile arena of regional and great-power rivalries, where even powerful states struggle to navigate complex crises and balance competing relationships. For Pakistan, the stakes are even higher: it is economically fragile, strategically dependent on both China and the US, lacks strategic autonomy, and shares a sensitive border with Iran. Already grappling with internal insurgency, Islamabad risks leaving domestic challenges unaddressed and further heightening its vulnerabilities by diverting attention and resources abroad.
Moreover, Pakistan’s military hardware — particularly US-supplied F-16s and other key platforms — cannot realistically be deployed against Israel or other US allies without Washington’s consent, which is highly unlikely to be granted given the close relationship between the US and Israel. While Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and delivery platforms, their operational deployment in sensitive scenarios may still face indirect constraints due to geopolitical pressures and existing military agreements.
Even Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, historically justified as a deterrent against India, cannot credibly be extended to Saudi Arabia without violating the global non-proliferation regime and triggering international backlash. Pakistan’s controversial past record — particularly the AQ Khan network, which transferred sensitive nuclear technology and centrifuge designs to internationally sanctioned states including North Korea, Iran, and Libya — already underscores global concerns about its role as a nuclear proliferator. If Pakistan follows through on its commitment to extend a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia under the agreement, it would reignite global concerns and set a dangerous precedent — potentially encouraging Iran and other actors to pursue similar capabilities by turning to suppliers such as North Korea or Russia. This scenario could exacerbate proliferation risks, escalate regional rivalries, and further destabilise an already volatile Middle East.
Implications for India
For India and the wider region, the Saudi-Pakistan agreement cannot be dismissed as just formalisation. The language of the agreement — including terms such as “mutual defence” and “strategic” — carries significant weight and should be carefully assessed within today’s geopolitical context, rather than through the lens of past ties.
India has strong geoeconomic and geostrategic relations with Saudi Arabia. Millions of Indians live and work in the Kingdom, and New Delhi and Riyadh have institutionalised cooperation across multiple domains. Saudi Arabia also recently moderated its stance on Kashmir, particularly after India’s abrogation of Article 370, which was met with little protest from the Gulf states compared to the past. Moreover, Saudi Arabia issued a statement clarifying that the pact is “purely defensive” and “not aimed at any third country”. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia’s formalisation of military commitments with Pakistan introduces uncertainties that could influence India’s strategic environment. Potential shifts in regional security, changing power dynamics in the Gulf, and indirect implications for India’s economic and security interests are all plausible outcomes.
The agreement presents India with a complex strategic dilemma: it must weigh its longstanding partnership with Saudi Arabia against the uncertainties created by Riyadh’s formal defence commitments to Islamabad. India’s response will likely be shaped by observing how the pact is operationalised, evaluating its potential impact on regional stability, and the broader strategic context. Accordingly, India should apply vigilance, careful analysis, and strategic foresight as key lenses through which to interpret and navigate this development.
A costly gamble for Pakistan
The Saudi–Pakistan defence agreement reflects Islamabad’s old habit of exchanging military services for financial benefits. However, the consequences today are far more serious than in the past.
For Pakistan, the agreement may provide short-term financial relief but will likely result in long-term insecurity. Pakistan could face long-term consequences from direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, heightened internal instability, and reputational damage in the nuclear domain. The agreement benefits Saudi Arabia more than Pakistan, while exposing Islamabad to both immediate and future strategic vulnerabilities. For India, this is a development to follow closely with measured analysis and proactive diplomacy.
In the end, this agreement is less a stabilising alliance than a strategic gamble — one that risks drawing Pakistan into conflicts beyond its capacity, while further complicating the already turbulent geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Middle East.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Imran Khurshid, Ph.D., is an Associate Research Fellow at the International Centre for Peace Studies (ICPS), New Delhi, an Adjunct Fellow at the Peninsula Foundation, and Visiting Faculty at Nalanda University, Rajgir, Bihar. His research focuses on India-US strategic relations, Indo-Pacific security, and emerging technology diplomacy. He has contributed to The Diplomat, Asia Times, Firstpost, and peer-reviewed journals. Image credit: Wikimedia/Colin Cooke Photo.