Interpreting crime data in Japan's immigration debate
Interpreting crime data in Japan’s immigration debate
WRITTEN BY PETER CHAI
25 February 2026
Immigration has become one of the most politically charged issues in Japan in recent years, reshaping party competition, government policy, and public debate. The presence of foreign residents and visitors is now increasingly framed as a question of social order and fairness. This shift has been reinforced by electoral dynamics, most notably the rise of the far-right populist Sanseito party, which expanded its representation from one to 14 seats in the July 2025 Upper House election by campaigning on explicitly anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Tightening immigration policies was also a key pledge of Sanae Takaichi during the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race and has become an important pillar of her government’s agenda since she took office in October 2025. Her administration has announced plans to tighten measures affecting foreign residents and visitors, including stricter enforcement against visa overstay and the use of pension and health insurance payment records as criteria for approving residence renewals or status changes. The government also plans to raise fees and requirements related to visas, permanent residency, and naturalisation.
Government officials have cited an increase in foreign crimes and emphasised illegal activities by foreigners. Takaichi has said that the public feels “anxiety and a sense of unfairness” over such illegal activities, while Kimi Onoda, the minister in charge of “a society of well-ordered and harmonious coexistence with foreign nationals”, has said that the government will “create a situation in which foreigners who do bad things will no longer exist in Japan”. These narratives, however, often fail to clearly distinguish between visitors, temporary residents, and permanent residents, or between Penal Code offenses and immigration-related administrative violations.
If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreigners” in isolation without historical context or comparisons with overall crime trends and across subgroups, they risk creating an unbalanced narrative and fuelling concerns about xenophobia.
Public opinion surveys suggest that this framing has resonated. A November 2025 Asahi Shimbun telephone survey found that 66 per cent of respondents viewed tougher immigration policies positively, while a Yomiuri-Waseda mail survey published the following month showed that opposition to the government accepting more foreign workers rose by 13 per cent between 2024 and 2025.
It is against this political backdrop that Japanese crime statistics involving foreign nationals have taken on heightened significance. After decades of declining crime, Japan has entered a post-pandemic period of gradual increase, prompting renewed public anxiety and political attention, particularly toward offenses involving foreigners. Yet, the way crime data have been cited in public debate has often obscured broader post-pandemic trends and exaggerated the role of foreign nationals in Japan’s changing crime landscape. Understanding how these statistics are often misinterpreted is essential for assessing both Japan’s public safety situation and the politics surrounding immigration today.
Post-pandemic crime on rise
After peaking in the early 2000s, Japan’s crime figures declined steadily over the following two decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, restrictions on social activity led to a further drop in overall crime. In recent years, however, this trend has reversed, with crime rising yearly. According to the National Police Agency (CPA), Japan recorded 737,679 crimes under the Penal Code in 2024 — an increase of 34,328 cases, or 4.9 per cent, from the previous year. Total crime rates have recovered to 98.5 per cent of pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019, yet are still a fraction of levels in the early 2000s.
By category, theft remained the most common offense, totaling 501,507 cases and accounting for nearly 70 per cent of all cases. Notably, fraud rose sharply, increasing 24.6 per cent to 57,324 cases, driven by “special fraud schemes” via phone or the internet. Sexual and indecent assaults also increased 45 per cent, partly due to reforms to sexual violence laws in 2023. Arrests of foreign nationals reached 12,170, a 5.5 per cent year-on-year increase. Criminal cases involving foreign nationals totaled 21,794 in 2024, up 20.5 per cent from the previous year. Even so, this figure remains well below historical highs — less than half of the cases recorded in 2005.
Public concern about safety has also risen in recent years. A survey conducted by the National Police Agency in October 2024 of 5,000 respondents found that 76.6 per cent believed public safety had worsened over the past decade, up 4.8 per cent from the previous year.
Why foreign crime statistics are misread
Five points are important to keep in mind when interpreting foreign crime data. First, crime has increased in the post-pandemic period among both Japanese and non-Japanese populations, indicating a broader trend rather than a rise limited to foreigners. As with overall crime patterns, theft and fraud are the most common offenses involving foreigners, while serious crimes such as robbery and homicide remain extremely rare.
Second, “foreigners” are not the same as “foreign residents.” Much of the increase in foreign-national cases in 2024 came from short-term visitors rather than long-term residents. Third, offenses under the Penal Code are not the same as under so-called “special laws.” In 2023, more than 85 per cent of arrests under special laws, including the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act, involved non-residents. These cases primarily concern immigration-related offenses such as illegal entry or overstaying; offenses which differ from Penal Code crimes and should not be equated with a deterioration in public safety.
Fourth, differences in policing practices may influence arrest statistics. Physical appearance, unfamiliarity with local laws, and language or cultural barriers can make foreign nationals more likely to be stopped by police. Previous reports indicated that selective policing based on appearance occur in Japan, with foreign residents often being targeted by police. In January 2024, three foreign residents in Tokyo filed a lawsuit alleging racial profiling, citing repeated stops without legitimate grounds.
A survey conducted by the Tokyo Bar Association in 2022 underscores these concerns. Among 2,094 respondents who were foreign residents or of foreign descent, 63 per cent said they had been questioned by police in the previous five years. 85 per cent felt targeted due to appearance, and 77 per cent believed their perceived foreignness was the sole reason for stops. By ethnic origin, the three groups with the highest shares of respondents reporting being questioned were those with Latin American, African, and Middle Eastern descents.
Fifth, Japan faces serious shortages in judicial interpretation resources. According to the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper, the number of cases in which police across Japan hired external interpreters to interview foreign suspects and victims reached approximately 66,100 in fiscal 2023 — about a 1.7-fold increase from a decade earlier. Also, police forces nationwide had secured around 4,200 in-house interpreters as of April 2024. However, the rapid growth of the foreign resident population which reached 2.57 million as of October 2025, combined with the need to cover less commonly spoken languages, has outpaced these efforts, leaving persistent shortages of both personnel and funding.
At the same time, according to a report by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, the number of court interpreters has declined by roughly 15 per cent compared with nine years ago. Experts attribute this to compensation that does not match heavy workloads. In March 2024, a Filipina woman in Tsu City, Mie Prefecture who had been charged with drug offenses was acquitted, after the court determined a crucial translation error was responsible for the charges. Taken together, these five points show that claims of “rising foreigner crime” when presented without context, risk seriously exaggerating what the data actually indicate.
Crime data and immigration politics
Japan remains one of the safest countries in the world when it comes to serious crime. Rates of kidnapping, homicide, and other violent offenses are lower than in most industrialised nations, and foreign nationals are rarely involved in such crimes. The country’s incarceration rate stands at 33 per 100,000 people, compared with 542 in the United States. Yet crime statistics, particularly those involving foreigners, have taken on outsized political significance.
Although the number of foreign residents in Japan continues to rise, the scale of foreign-related crime remains less than half of its 2005 peak, and serious offenses are extremely rare. Recent increases mirror the broader post-pandemic rise in overall crime, including offenses committed by Japanese nationals. The post-pandemic surge in both domestic and foreign-related crime reflects multiple converging factors: economic pressures from inflation and stagnant wages, the resumption of international travel and tourism after pandemic restrictions, increased opportunities for fraud and cybercrime as digital commerce expanded, and social disruptions from prolonged isolation. These structural changes affected Japanese and foreign residents alike.
The widening gap between objective crime data and public anxiety about foreign residents reflects a broader pattern in Japan’s social transformation. As demographic pressures intensify and economic stagnation persists, immigration has become a focal point for deeper societal anxieties surrounding identity, social change, and the erosion of familiar norms. As Japan enters an era of multipartism following the erosion of LDP dominance after the 2024 lower house and 2025 upper house elections, issues surrounding immigration and gender equality have increasingly crystallised into divergent value cleavages among political parties.
The irony is that Japan’s reliance on foreign labour continues to deepen. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of foreign workers reached approximately 2.3 million as of October 2024, a 12.4 per cent increase from the previous year and a record high. The number of companies employing at least one foreign worker rose to about 342,000, up 7.3 per cent. The Japan International Cooperation Agency estimates that Japan will need roughly 6.88 million foreign workers by 2040 to sustain economic growth.
If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreigners” in isolation without historical context or comparisons with overall crime trends and across subgroups, they risk creating an unbalanced narrative and fuelling concerns about xenophobia. As immigration increases, ensuring fair law enforcement, strengthening judicial interpretation services, expanding language support, and clearly distinguishing between types of offenses are not only matters of public safety, but also prerequisites for sustaining economic growth and social cohesion in an ageing society.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent those of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Peter Chai is a Research Associate at the Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo. He specialises in political sociology, comparative politics, and public opinion, focusing on East Asia. His articles were previous published on Nikkei Asia, The Diplomat, and East Asia Forum. Image credit: Unsplash/Chris Fuller (cropped).