9DASHLINE — Best of 2023: China as a global actor

3 January 2024

Following the sudden abandonment of all zero-COVID measures in December 2022, in 2023, the People’s Republic of China re-emerged on the world stage.

It was a busy year: the tenth anniversary of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, the ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about China’s role therein, as well as the increasingly urgent Taiwan issue, are just a few examples of topics that have made it to the top of analysts’ and policymakers’ agendas in 2023.

We summarise some of our most-read pieces about China as a global actor, which also generated a lot of discussion and debate among our readers.

ROAD TO NOWHERE? PROSPECTS FOR THE BRI IN 2023 AND BEYOND

WRITTEN BY PHILIP LOTT, ASSISTANT EDITOR AT 9DASHLINE

The BRI remains a topic of much discussion and debate. In this article published in January 2023, Philip Lott explores the prospects for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2023. He argues that while the Chinese leadership increasingly emphasises two other initiatives — the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative — it is reluctant to fully abandon the BRI and has instead made readjustments to its strategy. Still, these readjustments in combination with negative sentiments among some countries have opened a window of opportunity for other actors, including the EU (with its Global Gateway) and the G7 (with its Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment). According to Lott, if these initiatives emerge as a system of checks and balances, China’s BRI — but also its Western competition — will have to be more receptive to local and regional needs.

CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: STUTTERING TO A HALT?

WRITTEN BY DR JEREMY GARLICK, DIRECTOR OF THE JAN MASARYK CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, PRAGUE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS

Here, Garlick analyses the BRI’s unfulfilled potential in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). He notes that, despite initial optimism, a decade after the BRI’s launch, progress on China-CEE cooperation has almost ground to a halt. Regarding China’s overall influence in the region, it is difficult to see how the BRI can be (re-)established with as broad and deep an impact on regionalisation as its original promotion seemed to suggest.

‘WE’RE GOING THROUGH CHANGES’ – WHAT XI MEANT WHEN HE SPOKE TO PUTIN

WRITTEN BY DR KERRY BROWN, PROFESSOR OF CHINESE STUDIES AND DIRECTOR OF THE LAU CHINA INSTITUTE AT KING'S COLLEGE LONDON

Another important issue is what kind of world order Beijing envisions. In March 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the following words to Russia’s Vladimir Putin: “Change is coming that hasn't happened in 100 years and we are driving this change together”. Given the ambiguity of these words, Dr Kerry Brown in this article helps us understand what Xi actually meant when he spoke to Putin. Remarkably, Brown concludes that it is not only the West that needs to worry about Xi’s words but also Putin himself.

BUILDING A SAFE SHARED FUTURE FOR THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

WRITTEN BY DR SARI ARHO HAVRÉN, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT THE ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE (RUSI)

In September 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued its ‘Proposal on the Reform and Development of Global Governance’. Here, Dr Sari Arho Havrén analyses the proposal and Xi’s vision for the world. She suggests that while the Chinese Communist Party leadership faces some resistance, it has made considerable progress in building an international order that protects its one-party rule at home by insulating it from outside threats.

WHY CHINA IS AN UNLIKELY MEDIATOR IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

WRITTEN BY DR EVA SEIWERT, POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE FRIEDRICH-ALEXANDER-UNIVERSITÄT ERLANGEN-NÜRNBERG, ASSOCIATE RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE OSCE ACADEMY IN BISHKEK, MANAGING EDITOR AT 9DASHLINE

Related to Beijing’s preferred world order, is the issue of what sort of role it seeks to play on the global stage. With Russia’s war in Ukraine ongoing, the People’s Republic of China has been mentioned time and again as a potential mediator in the conflict. Here, Seiwert assesses Beijing’s potential as a peace broker, arguing that any such hopes are premature and at this point still amount to wishful thinking.

CHINA’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE AS A GLOBAL SECURITY PROVIDER

WRITTEN BY LUKAS FIALA, PHD CANDIDATE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, THE PROJECT COORDINATOR OF CHINA FORESIGHT AT LSE IDEAS

Fiala, too, explores China’s role as a security provider, and in this article explains the underlying drivers and enduring challenges of Beijing’s approach to insecurity. He argues that Xi’s Global Security Initiative — despite its lack of concrete material commitments and policy details so far — should be interpreted within the trend of transforming China into a more proactive security actor to preserve Chinese interests abroad. According to the author, whether China will make any new military base arrangements or institutionalised security guarantees over the coming decade will be key questions to look out for.

A BALANCING ACT: COP28 AND CHINA’S CRITICAL ROLE IN THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CRISIS

WRITTEN BY TAYLAH BLAND, SENIOR PROGRAM OFFICER FOR THE CHINA CLIMATE HUB AT THE ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE, AFFILIATED FELLOW FOR CLIMATE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE, CENTRE FOR CHINA ANALYSIS

Global climate governance is another area where China plays a significant role. In the run-up to COP 28, observers were expecting climate financing to take centre stage. In this article, Bland explores the drivers of China’s approach to the international climate agenda and, specifically, where Beijing stands on the international finance agenda. According to the author, climate finance is an area in which China has the opportunity to assume international leadership; however, so far, this is lacking.

THE CHINESE DRAGON MAY SPOUT FIRE BUT IS NOT TEN FEET TALL YET

WRITTEN BY JOE VARNER, FORMER DIRECTOR OF POLICY TO CANADA'S MINISTER OF DEFENCE, ADJUNCT SCHOLAR AT WEST POINT'S MODERN WAR INSTITUTE, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE CONFERENCE OF DEFENCE ASSOCIATIONS

Finally, China’s approach to Taiwan remains a topic of much debate. Here, Joe Varner discusses the Chinese military’s capabilities against the backdrop of a potential invasion of Taiwan. He argues that the current core challenges of a Chinese move to invade Taiwan are the number of troops needed to seize the island in offensive operations, the logistical challenges of getting those forces to Taiwan and keeping them there with resupply. A strong US industrial base with sufficient munitions stockpiles and weapons systems is critical for deterring Beijing in war, stresses Varner.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writers and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Image credit: Unsplash/Engin Akyurt.