Best of 2022: The Indo-Pacific
BEST OF 2022:
THE INDO-PACIFIC
2 January 2023
In 2022, the importance of the Indo-Pacific region — both in terms of economic power and geopolitical considerations — continued to rise. Several global players crafted new Indo-Pacific strategies or put the Indo-Pacific high on the agenda of their new national security strategies, which illustrates the relevance of the region worldwide.
As a platform hosting expert analysis focused on the key issues and dynamics shaping the Indo-Pacific, 9DASHLINE pays particular attention to the developments in this region. Here we present some of our most-read analyses on different countries’ evolving strategies towards the Indo-Pacific featured in the past year.
WRITTEN BY DR GABRIELE ABBONDANZA — SESSIONAL LECTURER, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, AND ASSOCIATE FELLOW, ITALIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
In this piece, Gabriele Abbondanza argues that in times of US-China superpower rivalry, not enough attention is paid to secondary powers when tracing the strategic contours of the Indo-Pacific landscape. By analysing the Indo-Pacific strategies of three key middle powers — Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia — as well as Europe’s shifting attention to the region, Abbondanza concludes that there is a new geopolitical constant, namely, an increasingly crowded, multipolar, and contested Indo-Pacific, where like-minded states do not always cooperate effectively. According to the author, even a partial synergy between different actors’ Indo-Pacific strategies would exert a significant influence over the region’s evolving landscape, and to that end, a gradual process of policy integration would be the best-case scenario to aim for.
WRITTEN BY DR WONGI CHOE — PROFESSOR, KOREA NATIONAL DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY
Here, Wongi Choe compares the Yoon Suk-yeol government’s approach to the Indo-Pacific with that of South Korea’s previous Moon Jae-in administration, predicting that the Yoon government will prioritise expanding and substantiating its cooperation with Washington not only at the bilateral level but also regarding the United States’ regional Indo-Pacific agenda. Choe argues that given Yoon’s strategic outlook and policy orientations, he is likely to expand Seoul’s role in the issues of regional peace and security and make greater endeavours to coordinate with other like-minded countries. However, the author cautions that this will be a challenging task, because unlike other US allies like Japan and Australia, Korea has hardly participated in Indo-Pacific coordination so far.
WRITTEN BY DR ELLI-KATHARINA POHLKAMP — VISITING FELLOW, EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (ECFR)
Moving on to Japan, in this piece, Elli Pohlkamp revisits Japan’s strategic policies in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine, arguing that Tokyo has dropped its decade-long engagement policy with Russia — which aimed at solving the territorial dispute concerning the Northern Territories — to allow for the political condemnation of Moscow’s actions. Pohlkamp notes that for Japan, the current global situation poses a threat to the rules-based order and torpedoes the foundations of its ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ vision. However, the war in Ukraine also helps Japan strengthen its argumentation of why it is so important for Europe and the United States to not lose sight of the Indo-Pacific and China's aspirations, and defend the principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
WRITTEN BY CHRISTIANE HEIDBRINK — RESEARCH FELLOW, UNIVERSITY OF BONN CENTRE FOR GLOBAL STUDIES, AND PROJECT MANAGER, BONN POWER SHIFT MONITOR (BPSM)
Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a EUR 100 billion special assets fund for investments and armaments projects for the German Bundeswehr (federal armed forces). In this piece, Christiane Heidbrink discusses whether this marks a broader turning point in Germany’s foreign and security policy towards the Indo-Pacific, predicting that despite the announced investments, Berlin will not change its economic approach to countries in the Asia-Pacific region any time soon. According to Heidbrink, both Germany’s defence priorities and its capacities are currently in Europe, and the country will not have the military capabilities of France or the US for robust operations in the Indo-Pacific in the foreseeable future. Thus, diplomacy will remain Berlin’s number one security instrument.
WRITTEN BY RAFAEL LOSS — PROJECT COORDINATOR, EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS AND ELISABETH I-MI SUH — PHD FELLOW, UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG INSTITUTE FOR PEACE RESEARCH AND SECURITY POLICY, AND RESEARCH FELLOW, GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
Rafael Loss and Elisabeth Suh’s piece also investigates Germany’s military engagement in the Indo-Pacific. The authors maintain that the Bundeswehr’s growing presence in the Indo-Pacific in 2022 illustrates the increasing importance Berlin attaches to the region and the challenges presented by China’s evolving military posture and ambitions. According to Loss and Suh, the Bundeswehr’s temporary presence in the region is a political signal of commitment, albeit somewhat ambiguous. They caution that Berlin’s forthcoming National Security Strategy and China Strategy need to clarify the goals, instruments, and courses of action of Germany's approach to the Indo-Pacific.
WRITTEN BY DR REUBEN STEFF — SENIOR LECTURER, UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO, AND VISITING RESEARCH FELLOW, MASARYK UNIVERSITY, AND DR MARTIN JIRUSEK — ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, MASARYK UNIVERSITY, AND MANAGING EDITOR AT THE CZECH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
In 2022, the US released its new National Security Strategy, which identifies China and Russia as the United States’ core competitors. Here, Reuben Steff and Martin Jirusek argue that the US rebalancing to the Indo-Pacific is a welcome development given China’s growing power and assertive behaviour. However, they note that the lack of an inclusive Indo-Pacific-wide security institution is a major omission in the increasingly competitive region, and that the US should be more predictable in its diplomacy around Taiwan.
WRITTEN BY ÁINE COOKE — MPHIL MODERN CHINESE STUDIES STUDENT, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Also focusing on the US, in this piece, Áine Cooke discusses whether supporting Ukraine will hinder the United States’ rebalancing towards the Indo-Pacific, concluding that Washington can — and must — continue to assist Ukraine in ways that do not undermine its Indo-Pacific rebalancing. Cooke maintains that it is imperative to respond effectively to Beijing’s increasing influence in the region and that the US must ensure it remains competitive by enhancing its military capabilities to deter an invasion of Taiwan, extending its diplomatic reach to counter China’s extensive regional engagement, and by formulating a comprehensive economic and climate policy.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writers and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Image credit: Flickr/US Pacific Fleet.