2023: Where is Pakistan heading?

13 January 2023

2022 was a difficult year for Pakistan: A humanitarian crisis sparked by devastating floods, the assassination attempt against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and a faltering economy. Growing political instability also prompted US President Joe Biden to call Pakistan one of the most dangerous countries in the world, characterising it as “nuclear weapons without cohesion”.

9DASHLINE asks a select group of experts how they expect the situation in Pakistan to develop in 2023.

FOCUS ON STABILITY IS ESSENTIAL

DR AMIRA JADOON — ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CLEMSON UNIVERSITY

Unfortunately, the past year has proved to be one of Pakistan's most difficult years, with multiple challenges arising simultaneously, perpetuating a cycle of instability and civil unrest within the country. However, many of its socioeconomic and political challenges, such as the faltering economy, public health issues, and rising political violence, are not new. Rather, they are a culmination of decades of misplaced priorities, parochial national policies, and governance missteps. Of course, some of these issues have been further exacerbated by major geopolitical events, such as the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as natural calamities such as the devastating floods in early 2022. Other major concerns are the rising tensions between the Pakistani state and the Afghan Taliban, clashes along the Durand Line, and the Taliban's limitations in constraining terrorism — including attacks by the Pakistani Taliban.

The year ahead is likely to be another difficult one for Pakistan. The country’s government must prioritise internal political and economic stability through transparent processes and meaningful public discourse while allowing room for civil expressions of discontent. But stability will remain elusive without first taking steps to secure peace within the country. Rather than engaging in misguided dialogues with militant outfits, the country's security and intelligence personnel, and law enforcement agencies would benefit from working collectively to ensure human security in both urban and rural areas. Public welfare and economic policies will remain difficult to implement as long as internal security remains compromised, which can have further negative effects on the political climate within the country.

PUT PEOPLE FIRST

DR ELIZABETH THRELKELD — SENIOR FELLOW AND DIRECTOR OF THE SOUTH ASIA PROGRAM, STIMSON CENTER

I’ll admit I have more fears than hopes for Pakistan in 2023. The country faces a host of challenges, any one of which would merit concern and immediate attention from policymakers. The year ahead will see Pakistan’s economy continue to struggle with a lack of foreign reserves, mounting debt payments, and punishing inflation. International financial support will be harder to come by with lenders tightening purse strings. These economic constraints will be doubly difficult to manage heading into a contentious election season when politicians often resist unpopular policy reforms that hit voters in the pocketbook. Meanwhile, the security situation is likely to worsen with the end of the Pakistani Taliban’s putative ceasefire and high tensions with a not-so-friendly government in Kabul. Negotiations pursued over the past year have backfired, and I expect Pakistan’s calls for engagement with the Taliban to take a back seat to a bilateral blame game. Finally, a repeat of this year’s calamitous floods or another climate-linked disaster cannot be ruled out. The country's most vulnerable would again bear the consequences.

It will be vital for Pakistan to identify and leverage opportunities that arise in the year ahead — or at the very least avoid making things worse. One potential bright spot it should aim to maintain is, perhaps surprisingly, minimal but stable relations with India. Though temptations to divert attention from domestic challenges can never be ruled out, the two sides have managed to uphold a renewed ceasefire along the Line of Control for nearly two years. They cooperated on wheat trans-shipments into Afghanistan and have lowered the rhetorical temperature since India’s controversial 2019 constitutional changes in Kashmir. Political pressure on both sides seems likely to continue frustrating trade liberalisation — still the region’s real game-changer — but avoiding backsliding in the relationship would be a success. What’s most needed is for Pakistan’s political and military leaders to rise to the occasion — putting the interests of their people first, accepting accountability, and working to address these interlinked challenges. History suggests business as usual is a more likely course, but here’s hoping 2023 proves me wrong.

CHALLENGES ON THREE FRONTS

DR RABIA AKHTAR — DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR SECURITY, STRATEGY AND POLICY RESEARCH (CSSPR)

2023 is going to be a challenging year for Pakistan. My biggest fear is that if things don’t change either politically or economically, then the past will surely be the prologue and stability will be elusive. Pakistan has struggled with economic development and has faced high levels of poverty and unemployment this past year. This has contributed to social unrest and has made it difficult for the government to address the needs of its citizens.

The National Security Policy (NSP) unveiled in January 2022 was centred around human security and hinted at Pakistan’s drift towards geo-economics as the pillar of stability. However, the political situation in the country since March 2022 has taken Pakistan far away from achieving that goal. Unless Pakistan finds its way back to what was enshrined in the NSP, there is little hope for any progress. However, for that to happen, the country needs political consensus. The 2023 general elections offer some hope for a political consensus that could take Pakistan in the right direction. That is where my hope resides.

I see three big challenges for Pakistan in 2023. First, political and economic instability. Pakistan has often been required by the International Monetary Fund to implement structural reforms as a condition of its assistance. These reforms may include measures to increase the efficiency and transparency of government operations, improve the business environment, and reduce the fiscal deficit. Implementing these reforms could help to improve the country's economic performance and reduce its reliance on external assistance. Second, dealing decisively with the Pakistani Taliban and its terrorism inside Pakistani territory. This will require a multifaceted approach that addresses the root causes of the group's violence as well as the underlying issues that have contributed to its resurgence after the Afghan Taliban’s takeover last year. Third, having stable relations with the Afghan Taliban. Islamabad must draw red lines with them on providing Pakistani Taliban sanctuaries inside Afghanistan borders; secure their acceptance of the Durand Line as the international border with Pakistan; and, avoid compromising on fencing the international border.

Pakistan cannot afford a two-front war on its vulnerable eastern border with India and western border with Afghanistan. It cannot stretch itself thin in securing both borders that are becoming increasingly hostile. For Pakistan, 2023 will be a challenging year on all three fronts: Political and economic instability; counter-terrorism; and, hostile borders with India and Afghanistan.

IN DIRE STRAITS

DR CLAUDE RAKISITS — HONORARY ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Overall, the year that has just passed will probably go down as one of Pakistan’s worst years in its 75 years of independence. The country has witnessed severe political unrest since April when Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. Accusing the new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, of engineering his ouster with the US, Khan has been holding massive rallies throughout the country demanding early parliamentary elections. Sharif has refused and will probably go the full term of parliament which ends in October.

The likely, but not certain, outcome of the elections next year will be a victory for the former prime minister. The hope will be that Khan’s PTI party — which has been winning most by-elections since April — will win a large majority which would assist in stabilising the political scene. Of course, this will only happen if the military does not get involved in the political fray. However, this is Pakistan, so there is absolutely no guarantee this will happen. Complicating the situation, the new army chief, Gen Syed Asim Muneer, who is believed to be apolitical but has had differences with Khan in the past, was not the former prime minister’s first choice for the new top military job. So politically, things could still get messy, particularly if terrorist violence, which has again been on the rise, continues to scorch the land.

On the economic front, matters are dire for the country. Inflation is running at 20 per cent, unemployment is rising, and about 25 per cent of the population lives in poverty — a figure which will inevitably rise following the worst floods the country has ever witnessed. A third of the country was under water due to extreme monsoon rains which affected over 30 million people, killed well over a thousand, and destroyed already decrepit infrastructure. It is estimated that the repairs will cost around USD 30 billion. This will need to be added to the existing national debt of over USD 130 billion. Hopefully, the international community will be generous in assisting Pakistan to deal with this climate change catastrophe. All in all, 2023 looks to be a very challenging year for whoever will be at the helm.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform. Image credit: Flickr/EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid.