Best of 2022: Understanding China
BEST OF 2022: UNDERSTANDING CHINA
5 January 2023
What China does and how its domestic politics and economy fare in the coming years will shape the future contours of the Indo-Pacific. A central actor in regional and global politics and governance, scholars and analysts continue to debate all aspects of its domestic and foreign policies. Speculation remains rife about whether a collapse of its economy and government is imminent, or whether it will forcibly claim Taiwan.
As a platform focusing on the Indo-Pacific, we take great interest in developing a better understanding of China. Here, we present some of our most insightful pieces looking at various aspects of China’s internal dynamics and engagement with the external world.
WRITTEN BY DR JABIN T. JACOB — ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, SHIV NADAR INSTITUTION OF EMINENCE, AND ADJUNCT RESEARCH FELLOW, NATIONAL MARITIME FOUNDATION, INDIA
In this first article, Jabin Jacob explores the problems facing China’s economy and scrutinises the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) role in (mis)managing pressures. He highlights the importance of increasing centralisation and unbalanced centre-local relations in undermining the dynamism of the country’s economy, and explores the external implications of the zero-COVID strategy and the long-term viability of the Belt and Road Initiative.
WRITTEN BY ANTONIA HMAIDI — ANALYST, MERCATOR INSTITUTE FOR CHINA STUDIES
Here, Antonia Hmaidi discusses the growing trend of ‘hacktivism’ in China in the wake of the unprecedented Shanghai police database leak. Describing the extent of the data leaked, she observes that government agencies’ data security measures have been abysmal, and the government seems to be losing control of some of its hackers. More broadly, she notes a growing level of dissatisfaction among hackers as well as netizens who seem to be increasingly alarmed about the government’s thirst for surveillance and data.
WRITTEN BY DR DAVID O'BRIEN — LECTURER, RUHR UNIVERSITY BOCHUM, GERMANY
Amid growing international criticism of China’s human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other minority groups, here, David O’Brien analyses Beijing’s response to the OHCHR’s investigation of alleged crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. He notes that the report received almost no mention in the domestic media and allegations of genocide are dismissed as lies. Drawing a parallel between the government’s goals in Xinjiang and its international aims, O’Brien warns that the regime is prepared to use fear, bullying, and intimidation.
WRITTEN BY BILL HAYTON — ASSOCIATE FELLOW, CHATHAM HOUSE
Concerns about the use of intimidation and bullying by Beijing and its emissaries also continued to increase last year. In this article from early 2022, Bill Hayton reports on thousands of Vietnamese truck drivers stuck at border crossings with China and small clashes between Vietnamese villagers and Chinese security forces. While China’s COVID-prevention policies are ostensibly to blame, Hayton suggests these measures may be tactics for exerting economic pressure on Vietnam.
WRITTEN BY DR JAMES LAURENCESON — DIRECTOR AND PROFESSOR, AUSTRALIA-CHINA RELATIONS INSTITUTE (UTS), UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SYDNEY
As threat perception regarding China, especially in relation to interference in domestic politics, grows in several major democracies, James Laurenceson suggests these concerns may be overblown. Focusing specifically on Australia’s scientific research collaboration with China, he argues that despite highly publicised allegations of espionage, there is little hard evidence. He concludes that while risk assessment and mitigation are important, research collaboration with Chinese entities remains valuable and cautions against viewing ties with China as broadly problematic.
WRITTEN BY DR JABIN T. JACOB — ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, SHIV NADAR INSTITUTION OF EMINENCE, AND ADJUNCT RESEARCH FELLOW, NATIONAL MARITIME FOUNDATION, INDIA
In his second piece for 9DL last year, Jacob focuses on the possibility of sudden regime change in China. He draws attention to two key questions: how a centralised political system maintains effective channels for feedback, and how the General Secretary can ensure effective implementation of policies even at the lowest levels. Exploring Xi Jinping’s approach to governance along these lines, he concludes that factional differences are perhaps less important for contemporary Chinese politics.
WRITTEN BY PHILIP LOTT — PROGRAM OFFICER, ASPEN INSTITUTE GERMANY, AND ASSISTANT EDITOR AT 9DASHLINE
With its growing heft, China has also become an agenda setter on the international level. In this piece, Philip Lott explores the political wrangling around the selection of the next Secretary-General of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Analysing the leadership of the outgoing Chinese Secretary-General of this international body, Lott explains how it has become a key site of the geopolitical competition between China and the US. He explains how China’s behaviour is putting pressure on liberal underpinnings of standardisation and urges liberal democracies to take a more robust stand on setting technology standards.
WRITTEN BY SAM BRESNICK — SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST AND ASSISTANT EDITOR AT CARNEGIE CHINA
Finally, assessing China’s global approach for evading the Biden administration’s containment strategy, Sam Bresnick argues that Beijing is pursuing its interests by intensifying diplomatic and economic links outside its neighbourhood. Evaluating the relative successes and failures of Chinese programmes such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative, and the Global Security Initiative (GSI), he identifies key challenges that Beijing will face as it tries to rewrite the rules of global security.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writers and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Image credit: Pixabay/Zibik.