The world needs Sino-American climate cooperation

Written by Taylah Bland

If the world’s two rivalling superpowers can cooperate on climate change, the rest of the world has no excuse but to join in the effort.

Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s inaugural strategic dialogue partner

Written by Ridvan Kilic

Ultimately, in order to secure its maritime boundary in the North Natuna Sea, Indonesia needs the support of like-minded strategic partners from the Quad more than ever.

Pacific9DLDecember 12, 20229DashLine, Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s Inaugural Strategic Dialogue Partner, Ridvan Kilic, Indonesia, Quad, strategic dialogue partner, non-alignment, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, Jakarta, US-China hegemonic competition, US, China, Southeast Asia, North Natuna Sea, North Natuna Sea Exclusive Economic Zone, Exclusive Economic Zone, EEZ, sovereignty, strategic partnership, Quad countries, rules-based maritime order, Indo-Pacific, alignment, inaugural strategic dialogue partner, Joko Widodo, President Joko Widodo, Widodo, Jokowi, Global Maritime Fulcrum, GMF, economic cooperation, trade partners, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, infrastructure development, regional maritime power, Indonesian navy, maritime security, nine-dash line, South China Sea, SCS, non-claimant state, gas field, oil and gas drilling, Garuda Shield exercise, Indonesian National Armed Forces, Nusantara, Natuna archipelago, Makassar Strait, air force, navy capabilities, regional military capabilities, Washington, advanced fighter jets, Chinese assertiveness, Batam, Anthony Blinken, Retno Marsudi, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, freedom of navigation, japan, Natuna Islands, growing military build-up, military equipment and technology, bilateral relationship, india, Shared Vision of Maritime Cooperation, Andaman Sea, Sabang Deep Seaport, Aceh, Australia, Canberra, comprehensive strategic partnership, 2021 Australia-Indonesia security deal, Albanese Labor Government, Australia-Indonesia strategic partnership, Bahasa, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, military training, joint exercises, military hardware, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indo-Pacific Partnership Maritime Domain Awareness, IPMDA

In Dialogue: India's presence in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Sankaran Krishna and Aditi Malhotra

If the other members of the Quad harden their stance against the Chinese, India will find it increasingly difficult to continue its balancing act of being part of a group hostile to the very country on which its own economic survival depends.

Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe

Written by Chris Deacon

Almost eight decades after the end of the Second World War, the legacy of Japan’s military expansionism and colonial rule across the Pacific continues to haunt its contemporary international politics, particularly within Northeast Asia.

Faultlines9DLDecember 8, 20229DashLine, Chris Deacon, Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe, Japan, South Korea, WWII, military expansionism, colonial rule, Northeast Asia, bilateral antagonism, Beijing, South Korea-Japan relations, wartime forced labour, Tokyo, Seoul, regional relations, alliance politics, Asia Pacific, United States, Washington, China, North Korea, historical antagonisms, growing nationalism, historical revisionism, Abe Shinzō, Shinzo Abe, post-Abe era, nationalism, revisionism, Japanese school textbooks, comfort women, Japanese government, constitutional restrictions, armed forces, defence cooperation, Kishi Nobusuke, foreign relations, Yasukuni Shrine, Park Geun-hye, Dokdo/Takeshima, Yasukuni, Moon Jae-in, compensation for victims, trade restrictions, Kishida Fumio, Fumio Kishida, revisionist policies, wartime labourers, UNESCO, Sado mine complex, Yoon Suk-yeol, mutual antagonism, national identity, Japanese national identity, Korea fatigue, national identity narratives, 2015 ‘comfort women’ agreement, nation-building narratives, bilateral cooperation, Japan-South Korea bilateral cooperation, identity constructs

South China Sea: An environmental tragedy of the commons

Written by Sabrina Moles

Tensions in the South China Sea are creating a dangerous, competitive pattern in the relations among the countries involved. Sovereignty claims, together with the urgent demand for food, energy resources, and profits are all defining a set of priorities that are increasingly disregarding environmental damage.

Faultlines9DLDecember 7, 20229DashLine, South China Sea: an environmental tragedy of the commons, Sabrina Moles, Philippines, Permanent Court of Arbitration, China, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, Beijing, sovereignty, maritime claims, South China Sea, nine-dash line, Chinese islands, Manila, environmental degradation, military activities, territorial disputes, fish scarcity, energy demands, Climate Change, pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, SCS, economic interests, intense fishing, Brunei, Cambodia, indonesia, malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, thailand, vietnam, fishing industry, IUU fishing, Illegal, unregulated, and unreported, FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization, UN, IUU fishing index, fish stocks, fishing vessels, exclusive economic zone, EEZ, Vietnamese fishing vessels, Chinese ships, fishermen, maritime NGOs, cyanide, Dr Wilfredo Y. Licuanan, Automatic Identification System, AIS, Milko Mariano Schvartzman, maritime energy nationalism, US Energy Information Agency, Southeast Asia, Center for Naval Analyses, China-Vietnam, maritime law enforcement agencies, marine traffic, oil and gas drilling, offshore oil rigs, US Energy Information Administration, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, UN Ocean Conference, WTO, James Borton

BTS, military enlistment controversy, and lessons for Korea’s public diplomacy

Written by Nguyen Le

Miscalculated interventions from the government as in the case of BTS weaken South Korean soft power, social cohesion, and — even worse — personal rights (by instrumentalising humans as public diplomacy tools).

Australia comes out of China’s ‘deep freeze’

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler

Australia’s export industries will hope to see progress in the coming months. Because the trade restrictions were not formalised, they are easy and quick to reverse — if there is the political will to do so.

Pacific9DLDecember 5, 20229DashLine, Australia comes out of China’s ‘deep freeze’, Melissa Conley Tyler, G20, G20 summit, Australia, China, Anthony Albanese, Xi Jinping, diplomacy, bilateral meetings, Chinese-Australian diaspora, comprehensive strategic partnership, free trade agreement, cyber attacks, espionage, foreign interference, human rights abuses, foreign investment, Huawei, 5G network, foreign-interference legislation, human rights advocacy, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Covid-19 inquiry, diplomatic freeze, import restrictions, defence, Li Keqiang, East Asia Summit, trade blockages, Taiwan, Russia, economic coercion, Australian Labor Party, ALP, Liberal–National coalition, Richard Marles, China-Australia relations, trade restrictions, export industries, James Laurenceson, Cheng Lei, Yang Hengjun, Australian government

The problem is not a power transition

Written by Michael J. Mazarr

The US-China relationship is not accurately captured as a power transition, but it is a clash of an often self-righteous leading power and a dissatisfied challenger. That recipe is one of the most combustible in world politics.

Faultlines9DLDecember 2, 20229DashLine, Michael J. Mazarr, The problem is not a power transition, power transition, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Party Congress, 20th Party Congress, national rejuvenation, power, USA, sanctions, great power, United States, hierarchy, world politics, international relations, international relations theory, index of national power, global norms, American strategy, comprehensive national power, international order, GDP, technology, hegemon, hegemony, Beijing, debt, housing bubble, liberal internationalism, Liberal International Order, demographics, fertility rate, dependency ratio, per capita wealth, Autocracy, autocratic rule, material power, Soft Power, diplomacy, World Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, European Union, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US-Japan-Australia-Taiwan coalition, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, counterbalancing, human rights, UN, post-war international order, power measurement, Stacie Goddard, community of common destiny for mankind, rising power, John Ikenberry, institutionalist theory, exceptionalism, US-led order, Daniel Rosen, Jessica Chen Weiss

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rafael Loss and Elisabeth I-Mi Suh

Adopting a rather transactional take and framing the Bundeswehr’s regional engagement in the context of Washington’s focus on China is not wrong, but it is short-sighted.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 1, 20229DashLine, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, Rafael Loss, Betty Suh, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Bundeswehr, Indo-Pacific, Germany, Berlin, diplomacy, German federal armed forces, armed forces, joint exercises, NATO, NATO allies, Australia, China, military posture, National Security Strategy, China Strategy, German frigate Bayern, German Navy, navy, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Eberhard Zorn, Pakistan, Guam, Japan, south korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, India, South China Sea, innocent passage, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Shanghai, German Air Force, Eurofighter, jets, transporters, tankers, Rapid Pacific, Pitch Black air combat exercise, Kakadu maritime combat exercise, F-35 stealth aircraft, F-35, Talisman Saber, United States, NATO sumiit, Nato Summit, NATO Strategic Concept, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand, cyber, cyber defence, maritime security, climate change, Disinformation, hybrid threats, Canberra, Tokio, Tokyo, Enhanced Opportunity Partner, Multilateralism, Asia-Pacific, deterrence, Taiwan, North Korea, missile tests, Rheinmetall, Russia, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army, Russian Navy, authoritarian revisionism, White House

China’s population prospects: A historical perspective

Written by Cameron Campbell

Policies should instead focus on adaptations to realise fully the potential of the existing labour force and alter the environment to facilitate healthy and independent living for the elderly.

China’s water security dilemma

Written by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro

The current approach has resulted in a water policy that has had a detrimental impact on regional water security and social stability, thus heightening tensions in the region.

The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals

Written by Alice Dell’Era

From Europe’s perspective, these potential trilateral and/or minilateral consultative mechanisms could give European actors the space to voice their own outlook, ensuring that European viewpoints are incorporated into Japanese and American perspectives.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia9DLNovember 25, 20229DashLine, The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals, Alice Dell’Era, US-Japan, security partnership, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Cold War, Japan, US, United States, allies, bilateralism, bilateralism-plus, trilateral, minilateral, minilateral regional mechanisms, bilateral alliance, Republic of Korea, ROK, Australia, India, Europe, Biden administration, France, UK, Germany, Abe Cabinet, Arc of Freedom and Prosperity Initiative’, European partners, 2+2, dynamic strategic partnership, Japan-France Comprehensive Maritime Dialogue, Working Group on the Indo-Pacific, Reciprocal Access Agreement, RAA, extra-regional partner, Tokyo, Berlin, Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, defence, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, joint military training, goodwill training, Indo-Pacific deployment, Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force, ASDF, quadrilateral, Washington, La Perouse, ARC21, US-Japan 2021 ANNUALEX, ANNUALEX, US-Japan Alliance-Plus

What’s next for Bangladeshi politics?

Written by Ali Riaz

The escalating face-off between the Bangladeshi government and the opposition will likely lead to heightened violence in the coming months, further persecution of critics by the government, and the potential weakening of the ruling party’s grip over the situation.

South Asia9DLNovember 24, 20229DashLine, What’s next for Bangladeshi politics?, Ali Riaz, Bangladesh, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP, Bangladesh Awami League, BAL, political rallies, political volatility, general strikes, public demonstrations, opposition parties, transport strikes, rallies, anti-government demonstrations, elections, economic crisis, political dissent, price hikes, fuel price hikes, trade deficit, rolling blackouts, national grid failure, fuel shortages, wage cuts, rigged elections, human rights, human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, UN Human Rights Council, Michelle Bachelet, US Treasury, sanctions, Rapid Action Battalion, RAB, persecution of opposition activists, surveillance capacity, encrypted messages, Telegram, Digital Security Act, DSA, CII, Election Commission, Gaibandha, Electronic Voting Machines, EVMs, CSOs, Taka 8711 crore, VVPAT

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

What is Australia’s Indo-Pacific Endeavour about?

Written by Bec Strating

The IPE constitutes a form of ‘normative seapower’ through efforts to exert influence and shape perceptions within the crowded maritime marketplace of norms, ideas, and narratives.

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Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China

Written by Marina Rudyak

Precisely because China is the world’s largest bilateral creditor, and many of its borrowers face the risk of excessive debt, it matters to get things right in the analysis of lender-borrower relations.

South Asia9DLNovember 21, 20229DashLine, Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China, Marina Rudyak, Sri Lanka, IMF, International Monetary Fund, China, Debt trap, Debt Trap, debt trap diplomacy, Debt Trap Diplomacy, Foreign Debt, Chinese debt restructuring, debt-trap diplomacy, Hambantota Port, Hambantota, Hambantota debt-trap, Deborah Brautigam, Brahma Chellenay, geostrategic, China Merchants Holding, Reuters, Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake, Ravi Karunanayake, loans, foreign loans, Harvard, US State Department, Debtbook Diplomacy, 2018 US National Defence Strategy, economic coercion, US Vice President Mike Pence, Mike Pence, predatory lending, debt diplomacy, China Eximbank, international sovereign bonds (ISBs), international sovereign bonds, ISBs, BRI, Belt and Road, Belt and Road Initiative, Umesh Moramudali, Thilina Panduwawala, default, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s civil war, global financial crisis of 2007-2008, global financial crisis, Rajapaksa government, Ranil Wickremesinghe, World Bank, Public and Public Guaranteed (PPG) debt, PPG, state-owned enterprises, social credit system, creditor, debitor, lender, borrower, India, Japan, G20 Common Framework, middle-income country, Covid-19

Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security

Written by Phan Xuan Dung

As Vietnam’s most senior politician and the architect of the ‘bamboo diplomacy’ concept, Trong should promote efforts to update Vietnam’s strategic thinking, thereby enabling the country to bend and sway in the current geopolitical headwinds with greater flexibility.

Power Politics9DLNovember 18, 20229DashLine, Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security, Phan Xuan Dung, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong, 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Vietnamese Communist Party, VCP, Beijing, China, Hanoi, Xi Jinping, Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic partnership, regime-state security, Russia-Ukraine war, Biden administration, authoritarian regimes, political stability, political survival, Marxist-Leninist one-party state, vietnam, Doi Moi economic reform, Doi Moi, united states, international relations, Olaf Scholz, Jacinda Ardern, Joe Biden, President Biden, comprehensive strategic partnership, bamboo diplomacy, post-Cold War era, pluralistic democracy, colour revolutions, US-led liberal democracy, Washington, peaceful evolutions, Biden's National Security Strategy, non-democracies, international rules-based order, socialist democracy, Marxist-Leninist ideology, socialist regime, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, South China Sea, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, bilateral trade, Vietnamese imports, export diplomacy, supply chains, domestic political legitimacy, human rights, Obama, regime change

Yoon’s ‘lame duck’ presidency

Written by Vicent Plana Aranda

Looking at the trajectory of Yoon’s ratings during the first six months of his presidency, it will be difficult to recover his presidency’s early levels of approval, and more likely that it consolidates into what could be called a ‘lame duck’ presidency.

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