Yoon’s ‘lame duck’ presidency
Yoon’s ‘lame duck’ presidency
WRITTEN BY VICENT PLANA ARANDA
17 November 2022
In South Korea, presidents tend to have low approval ratings at the end of their presidency in what is known as the ‘lame duck’ period: during the last year of the presidential term, as the parties prepare for the upcoming election, the president’s ability to govern is diminished. However, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol entered this period just a month after the beginning of his term, and he is having a very hard time improving his prospects.
In addition, the opposition Democratic Party has a solid majority in the National Assembly, which limits the actions of Yoon’s government. While this might change after the next legislative election in 2024, right now it seems unlikely that Yoon and the People Power Party (PPP) will be able to gather the support they need to reverse the situation.
Yoon’s quick ascension to the presidency and descent in popularity
Yoon Suk-yeol became the first president of South Korea since 1988 who had not previously held elected office. He was a prosecutor and did not have any political experience until June 2021, when he decided to become an independent presidential candidate. In July of the same year, he joined the then-opposition PPP and won the primary election in November. By the time he was elected president on 9 March 2022, he had been in politics for about nine months.
If Yoon and the PPP are not able to reverse this situation, it might hamper the PPP’s potential of gaining a majority in the National Assembly at the next legislative elections in 2024.
Since he was sworn in on 10 May, he has seen a steady decline in approval ratings as his handling of both domestic and international politics sparked stark criticism. According to the weekly polls conducted by Gallup Korea, his approval ratings declined from 52 per cent after his inauguration to 30 per cent in the second weekly poll of November. His lowest approval ratings were in the first week of August and the last week of September with just 24 per cent. Yoon has been criticised for decisions such as moving the presidential office from the Blue House (the presidential office from 1948 to 2022) to a complex previously used by the defence ministry in Yongsan, and for refusing to meet the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, during her visit to Seoul. Yoon argued that he had planned a vacation long before Pelosi’s decision to visit Seoul. This was perceived as an action to avoid antagonising Beijing. Nonetheless, the most controversial moments of Yoon’s presidency (and most damaging to his approval ratings) are related to his governmental appointments and his mismanagement of a mistake at an international event.
Yoon’s cabinet nominations
One of the first problems Yoon had to face was born out of his lack of experience in politics, and, therefore, lack of political connections. Due to his lack of connections, the president has relied on former aides and associates to fill government positions. He has nominated 15 former prosecutors for ministerial and senior positions at the Office of the President. This is exemplified by the appointment of Han Dong-hoon — who was Yoon’s right-hand man when he was Supreme Prosecutor — as Minister of Justice, a move that sparked criticism due to Yoon’s reliance on a small pool of candidates.
However, this was not the only problem with Yoon’s selection of candidates to fill positions in his administration. Among his cabinet appointments, four had to withdraw shortly after being nominated during the first two months of his term. Two nominees to become Minister of Health had to resign because of past scandals: Chung Ho-young had to withdraw in late June because of charges of nepotism, as he had allegedly used his influence to get his children admitted into medical school. Kim Seung-hee also had to withdraw in early July due to allegations of misuse of campaign funds. In addition, the nominee for the Korea Fair Trade Commission, Song Ok-rial, stepped down due to allegations of sexual harassment. Finally, the education minister nominee, Kim In-chul, had to withdraw because of scandals related to nepotism, plagiarism, and the suspicion of having held the defence of a PhD dissertation at a bangseokjip (‘entertainment house’). These examples indicate that either the vetting of ministerial candidates was insufficient or that those incidents were ignored before the nominations.
Nonetheless, the strongest backlash to one of Yoon’s nominations took place when Education Minister Park Soon-ae had to resign in early August after her proposal to lower the school age from six to five years caused a strong reaction from the public. She had been in the position for only 34 days.
Yoon’s problems in the international scene
On the international level, the most damaging incident for Yoon’s approval rating occurred during the second half of September. First, he was criticised for the organisational management of his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. On 15 September, in preparation for his trip to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, Yoon announced that he would meet with Kishida. However, the Japanese government immediately denied this claim. Yoon finally did meet him — for 30 minutes — in an encounter that was scheduled at the last minute and announced to the press only after it had started. This was the first meeting of a South Korean president with a Japanese prime minister in almost three years. Furthermore, Yoon also received criticism for not attending Queen Elizabeth II’s lying in state despite being in London on 18 September. He blamed terrible traffic for his absence.
The second most damaging incident took place during an event of the Global Fund’s Seventh Replenishment in New York. At the event, Yoon was caught on air saying: “How could Biden not lose face if these fuckers do not pass it in Congress”. His comments referenced the US president’s pledge of donating USD 1 billion for every USD 2 billion committed by the rest of the world to fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria which would need approval from Congress. The South Korean broadcaster MBC was the first network to release the video.
At first, the presidential office did not deny what the president had said and only requested for the video not to be released, arguing that it had been a private conversation. A few hours later, once the video had been made public, the senior secretary for press affairs, Kim Eun-hye claimed that Yoon had used the word nallimyun (scrap) instead of Biden and that he was referring to the South Korean National Assembly and himself as the humiliated person if the funds were not approved. However, if this were the case, Yoon’s words would make no grammatical sense, some argue.
In response to the video, the presidential office only maintained its position of denying that Yoon mentioned Biden and that he had been referring to a domestic issue. In addition, the presidential office sent a letter to MBC asking questions about the way Yoon’s words had been transcribed. The network considered this a threat to freedom of the press, as the presidential office accused MBC of manufacturing a scandal with a fabricated transcription that damaged the South Korea-USA alliance. In addition, the PPP announced that it would sue the president of MBC Park Sung-jae. After this incident, Yoon’s approval ratings reached again its lowest point ever, 24 per cent, the same as when the controversy over the reduction of the school-age took place.
The consequences of a steady decrease in popularity
Despite these incidents, Yoon has not signalled readiness to admit any wrongdoings, nor has he apologised. He disregarded accusations of nepotism or lack of suitable candidates for his appointments. In addition, the open microphone incident illustrates a way of managing a situation by not admitting any wrongdoing and blaming others for the problem — in this case, the media. This strategy of damage control further accelerates this government’s loss of support.
Yoon became president with more than 16 million votes, the highest number a South Korean president has ever won. The 2022 presidential election was also the election won with the narrowest margin. During the 2022 local elections held on 1 June, the PPP obtained a clear victory by winning 12 out of 17 provincial governorships and metropolitan city mayoral seats. However, according to Gallup Korea’s weekly polls, the approval ratings of the PPP and Yoon have been in decline since early June. The momentum that started with the victory in the mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan in 2021 and led the PPP to three consecutive electoral victories appears to be wearing off. This was unthinkable during the years after its defeat in the 2017 presidential election and the 2020 legislative election when it was unlikely that the party could recover from the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.
Looking at the trajectory of Yoon’s ratings during the first six months of his presidency, it will be difficult to recover his presidency’s early levels of approval, and more likely that it consolidates into what could be called a ‘lame duck’ presidency. This might be a problem for his administration, as it will be difficult for him to carry out his political agenda without the support of the public and a PPP majority in the National Assembly. If Yoon and the PPP are not able to reverse this situation, it might hamper the PPP’s potential of gaining a majority in the National Assembly at the next legislative elections in 2024. If this is the case, Yoon will become the first South Korean president that was not supported by a parliamentary majority at any point in his term.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Vicent Plana Aranda is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Duisburg-Essen. His research focuses on the South Korean party system. Image credit: Flickr/Republic of Korea.