Hold on tight! The US, Indo-Pacific, and expectations for a second Trump term

Written by Blake H. Berger

If Trump prevails in the 2024 election, and if his first term indicates what the region can expect from a second one, hold tight because it will get ugly.

China’s uncertain future as a global security provider

Written by Lukas Fiala

The key question is whether Xi’s growing assertiveness and inadequacy of existing means to ensure the security of Chinese entities abroad will lead to a more pronounced security footprint over the coming decade, featuring new military base arrangements and, potentially, institutionalised security guarantees.

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No country for asylum-seekers: The complexity of refugee protection in South Korea

Written by Dr Angela Y. McClean

South Korea’s migration agenda has primarily been utilitarian, prioritising migrant populations that are deemed undisruptive to the Korean social and ethnic makeup, and necessary to the development of the nation, while imposing restrictions on those who are not.

Why China is an unlikely mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war

Written by Dr Eva Seiwert

Despite China’s interest in increasing its involvement in crisis resolution, it remains unclear whether Beijing is willing to mediate, and whether it can be a fair broker, in the Russia-Ukraine war.

ASML, China, and Dutch national security interests

Written by Frans-Paul van der Putten

Given the potential geopolitical consequences of the Dutch assumptions for EU-China relations and Transatlantic security cooperation, the Dutch government should be more explicit about its considerations for further restricting semiconductor equipment exports.

Farmers, Facebook, and Myanmar’s coup

Written by Hilary Faxon, Kendra Kintzi, Van Tran, Kay Zak Wine & Swan Ye Htut

Consistent with broader trends across Facebook in Myanmar, in the days and weeks that followed the coup, farming groups erupted with political news and calls to support the Civil Disobedience Movement.

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A law to rein in tech firms: the US is restricting China by emulating it

Written by Wendy Chang and Antonia Hmaidi

By expanding the definition of national security to address the newly antagonistic world that China and the US perceive themselves in, both countries seem ready to accept the fragmentation of their ever-more digital economies and societies as inevitable.

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Eyes on Asia: Shangri-La Security Dialogue's role in managing great power rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

For Singapore, the advantages are inordinate. As a tiny island nation, the annual conference allows the country to exercise a degree of influence and statecraft on the world stage that its material resources and capacity might not otherwise grant it.

The United States and China: Two alternative visions of regional order

Written by Dr Matteo Dian

Both US allies and non-aligned partners are deepening their security relationship with Washington as their main insurance policy against increasingly frequent Chinese coercion.

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Sabah is a flashpoint for Islamist extremism and separatism in Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Maurizio Geri

Both the Malaysian and Philippine governments should be careful not to allow pressure from these disparate groups to create discord which could unravel the critical progress made so far through the Bangsamoro peace process.

Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal

Written by Andi Raihanah Ashar

Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia are unlikely to pursue a missile deal involving an India-Russian joint venture as long as they have to put their relationship with the US at risk.

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UNSC Resolution 2669 and the future of the Myanmar crisis

Written by Sadia Korobi

ASEAN members must realise that short-term economic benefits in Myanmar cannot overshadow the history of ineffective and unreliable military regimes in the country since independence.

The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition

Written by Dante Schulz

The Taliban’s inability to address the security and economic concerns of its partners will only exacerbate the glaring issues plaguing Afghanistan.

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The real reason Europe dislikes the Inflation Reduction Act

Written by Thijs Stegeman

Given the current challenges to the liberal order, improved coordination and consideration among its defenders is crucial. This starts with the US acknowledging and discussing the legitimate concerns of its allies instead of dismissing them.

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A united Taliban — an existential threat to Pakistan

Written by Dr Siegfried O. Wolf

Islamabad must realise that the Taliban constitutes a hostile government in Afghanistan and that it is not able to drive a wedge between the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban.

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Road to nowhere? Prospects for the BRI in 2023 and beyond

Written by Philip Lott

With increased competition from the EU and the G7, as well as recent readjustments of the Belt and Road Initiative’s scope and spending, one question remains: will China’s “project of a century” be short-lived?

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Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies

Written by Eva Seiwert

The EU and allies should scrap the framing of ‘democracies vs autocracies’ not just with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also when speaking about China’s increase in power.

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Best of 2022: Russia’s War and the International Order

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year took the international community by surprise and raised concerns about the precedent this might set especially for China’s policy vis-à-vis Taiwan. The differing responses from countries, particularly established and rising powers, were also scrutinised, and implications were drawn for global governance and the international order.

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