This month we examine a world under pressure: as conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy flows, Indo-Pacific states confront constrained choices, balancing neutrality, domestic stability, and external dependencies. From political resets in Nepal and Bangladesh to energy rationing in Sri Lanka and heightened strategic signalling across East and Southeast Asia, March highlights how governments are adapting in real time to a more interconnected and volatile global order.

Join our briefing today and stay ahead of the curve.

What the evolution of China’s Health Silk Road means for the World Health Organisation

Written by Paulo Afonso B. Duarte and Anabela Rodrigues Santiago

Through participation, financing, and programme implementation, the HSR enables China to translate practical health engagement into institutional influence within the WHO, shaping priorities and norms within the multilateral system.

The Philippines’ hard balancing statecraft won’t deliver the South China Sea Code of Conduct

Written by Pheng Thean

If the Philippines seeks a realistic pathway towards a functional COC — and to preserve ASEAN’s credibility as a neutral convening platform — it must complement its instruments of statecraft with more targeted diplomatic adjustments.

Nepal's new political generation and the India-China contest for influence

Written by Omkar Bhole

Nepal’s 2026 elections have not fundamentally altered the structural realities of its foreign policy, but they have introduced Gen Z as a new political actor that could reshape how external influence is exercised.

The illusion of reform: Hun Manet’s Cambodia, three years on

Written by Vanly Seng

Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold on power.

From strategic upgrading to sovereign AI: East Asia under renewed pressure

Written by Viktor Buzna

Just as steel, petrochemicals, and semiconductors once underpinned national resilience, computing power and AI ecosystems define economic and strategic autonomy today.

The road to Indonesia’s nickel industrialisation runs through China

Written by Anoushka Singh

Without rewriting the terms on which capital and expertise enter the sector, Indonesia’s nickel future may continue to be shaped elsewhere, despite being mined at home.

Restraint or recalibration? US strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Debate over Donald Trump’s “America First” strategy raises questions about whether the United States is pursuing restraint or reshaping its role in the Indo-Pacific region. We recently invited several experts to assess how shifting defence burdens to allies like Japan and South Korea is affecting deterrence and alliance credibility.

Together they explore the implications for regional stability and competition with China.

COP30: The struggle for ambitious action in a shifting climate governance order

Written by Luana Correia

Influence in climate diplomacy is becoming increasingly dispersed, as traditional agenda-setters fail to consolidate their authority, creating space for competing interests — and claims to leadership — to shape outcomes.

Carney inaugurates 'global centrism': but how will the Indo-Pacific feature?

Written by Quay Say Jye and Connor O’Brien

The thorny question remains what lines are not worth crossing, and when normative and institutional guardrails may prove strategically beneficial over the long term, especially for small and middle powers.

China and the shifting nature of global health governance

Written by Jeremy Youde

If the existing liberal international order is indeed undergoing a profound and transformative shift, and not just a reaction to Trump’s foreign policy, then there is an opportunity for change that will better serve people all over the world — or a chance for humanity to fall further from its collective aspirations.

The grey-zone of interest: How China tests Indonesia’s South China Sea strategy

Written by Omar Rasya Joenoes

The challenge, therefore, is to transform ambiguity from a reactive posture into a deliberate and integrated strategy — one that manages asymmetry without allowing incremental pressure to redefine the strategic status quo.

The Navigator’s February issue — out now!

This month’s brief examines a hardening strategic landscape: as grey-zone drone incursions test Europe’s resolve, Indo-Pacific states grapple with contested political transitions and mounting internal pressures that complicate deterrence, resilience, and regional stability.

Join our briefing today and stay ahead of the curve.

Economic security moves India-Japan relations into a new strategic phase

Written By Simran Walia

Institutional mechanisms for economic security cooperation require clear roadmaps, regulatory predictability, and policy coordination to attract increased Japanese participation in India’s high-technology sectors.

Interpreting crime data in Japan's immigration debate

Written by Peter Chai

If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreigners” in isolation without historical context or comparisons with overall crime trends and across subgroups, they risk creating an unbalanced narrative and fuelling concerns about xenophobia.

The tech test: New Zealand’s independence in a connected world

Written by Phuong Nguyen

The era of digital independence is closing fast. From 5G to AI, the Indo-Pacific is fragmenting into competing ecosystems centred on Washington and Beijing.

Prabowo’s presidency: Meals, power, and China

Written by Nathaniel Schochet and Peyson Hunt

The MBG programme stands as both a policy initiative and a political symbol of the Prabowo administration: ambitious in scope, reinforced by the military, and directed by an executive willing to subordinate bureaucracy and norms in pursuit of their goals.

Youth-led protest movements across South and Southeast Asia seek a political reset

Written by Adhiraaj Anand

Deeper and more sustained transnational exchanges could foster new regional identities and solidarities between national protest movements, as well as increase their resilience and capacity for innovation.