’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin

Written by Dr Kerry Brown

In this context, the one positive Russia offers to China is that it does not belong to the Western bloc. Xi’s seemingly warm words to Putin are an acknowledgement that his enemy’s enemy is his friend.

Editor's Picks9DLMay 11, 20239DashLine, ’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin, Kerry Brown, President Xi Jinping, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Moscow, geopolitics, Chinese elite, America, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sino-Russian, China-Russia alignment, Beijing, autocratic norm, democracy, common destiny, Community of Common Destiny, community of common destiny for mankind, win-win, Belt and Road Initiative, Qing, Republican, People’s Republic, Winston Churchill, Second World War, Great Powers, UK, middle-income, sense of destiny, Western hegemony, multipolarity, Western bloc, NATO, Soviet, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, peace plan, nuclear weapons, ‘WE’RE GOING THROUGH CHANGES’ – WHAT XI MEANT WHEN HE SPOKE TO PUTIN, Xi Jinping, Putin, Ukraine, Nuclear, United Kingdom, US, WW2, WWII, Lau China Institute, Kings College London, Centro Studi Sulla Cina Contemporanea Summer School

France in the Indo-Pacific: Not so ambivalent after all

Written by Gesine Weber

If France wants to seize the opportunity for asserting leadership among Europeans on the Indo-Pacific, it will also be up to the President to preach what the country already practices.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 10, 20239dashline, France in the Indo-Pacific: not so ambivalent after all, Gesine Weber, French President Emmanuel Macron, US-China competition, France, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, EU, EU member states, US, allies, Paris, Exclusive Economic Zone, French overseas territories, trade, EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Council of the EU, Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Stockholm, Russia's war, Russia’s invasion, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Gulf, South Africa, East Africa, India, Japan, Australia, AUKUS, submarine deal, anglophone club, transatlantic, Washington, puissance d’équilibres, foreign policy, middle power, logic of blocs, third way, US-China competition for hegemony, Strait of Taiwan, connectivity, defence, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, de-risking, hawkish, Multilateralism, flexible engagement, Revue Stratégique (Strategic Review), Antoine Bondaz, puissance d’initiatives, minilateralism, La Perouse, United Kingdom, London, Franco-British summit, geopolitical

Ten-year review of China’s defence budget: Steadily toward modernisation

Written by Fei Su and Xiao Liang

Despite concerns over the transparency on the official figures, the sustained growth in China's military spending demonstrates its unwavering commitment to the PLA’s modernisation to become a ‘world-class’ military by the mid-21st century.

Japan’s defence plans: What matters is implementation

Written by Dr Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Without continuous efforts in Japan including securing monetary and political capital — together with coordinating and cooperating with regional partners — Tokyo’s push for defence modernisation will face a myriad of challenges going forward.

East Asia9DLMay 8, 2023Japan’s defence plans: what matters is implementation, 9DashLine, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan, defence, military, National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Buildup Program (DBP), pacifism, Japan’s pacifist constitution, Tokyo, Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF), counterattacks, military readiness, defence planning, National Defense Program Guidelines, China, North Korea, Russia, threats, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, conflict, warfare, military modernisation, strike capabilities, nuclear doctrine, preemptive strikes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, hybrid warfare, psychological warfare, cognitive warfare, capabilities, resilience, hypervelocity gliding projectiles, Okinawa, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, defence budget, US-Japan alliance, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral coordination, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, free and open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), NATO, Southeast Asia, rule of law, security dilemma

Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence

Written by Adrienne Wu and Melynn Oliver

Those who argue for a formal remilitarisation of Japan should consider why they advocate such a move. Amending Japan’s constitution has proven unnecessary to expand the SDF, therefore the only major benefit is to assay the fears of the Japanese public and expand its international role.

East Asia9DLMay 5, 20239DashLine, Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence, Adrienne Wu, Melynn Oliver, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defence budget, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tokyo, Japan's security, defence capabilities, Article 9 framework, Article 9, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, constitutional reform, US, Indo-Pacific, Japan’s pacifist constitution, pacifism, US forces, World War II, Korean War, Washington, Japan’s Supreme Court, right to self-defence, sovereignty, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, remilitarisation of Japan, Defense Agency, defence-related exports, collective defence, National Security Council, National Security Strategy (NSS), House of Representatives, Public support, Russia’s nuclear threats, Russia, China, anti-nuclear stance, Japan’s security role, tax hikes, National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Build-up Program (DBP), heightened alert posture, global power shifts, strategic challenge, North Korea, counter-strike capabilities, defence procurement and industrial development strategy, strategic clarity, strategic ambiguity, Taiwan, US-Japan Alliance, Quad, NATO

New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?

Written by Kina Kunz

If the current trend continues, we may be witnessing New Zealand in the process of edging away from its hedging position and instead committing to the US bloc in this ‘new Cold War’.

Pacific9DLMay 3, 20239dashline, Kina Kunz, New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?, Chris Hipkins, New Zealand, foreign policy, domestic issues, Jacinda Ardern, NZ Labour Party, China, New Zealand-China, security policy, Australia, China Policy, Ardern administration, Hipkins administration, diplomatic dispute, Wellington, Morrison government, Nicholas Khoo, Annie-Marie Brady, Nanaia Mahuta, Aotearoa Foreign Minister, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, Russia-Ukraine war, economic diversification, AUKUS, anti-nuclear stance, non-nuclear pillar, formal alliance, Asia-Pacific, Helen Clark, Pacific and Southeast Asian states, US-China rivalry, Māori, Treaty of Waitangi, Robert Patman, Indo-Pacific region, multilateral security arrangement, NATO, Asia Pacific Four, AP4, Andrew Little, defence portfolio, defence policy review, TikTok, security alignment, NZ

Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism

Written by Xuyang Dong

Australia is being remade into an active and helpful middle power in its region with its own agency, constructively and strategically navigating its presence in the geopolitics of growing China-US rivalry.

Pacific9DLMay 2, 20239DashLine, Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism, Xuyang Dong, Penny Wong, Australia, multiculturalism, Anthony Albanese, Albanese Labor Government, Labor Party, Australian Labor Party, feminism, diversity, Malaysia, elite politics, representation, White Australia Policy, immigration, China, foreign policy, renewable energy, ‘shoe-leather' diplomacy, Southeast Asia, Pacific, First Nations, colonialism, First Nation foreign policy, British colonial history, balancing power, Liberal-National Coalition, United States, backyard, national interests, security pact, Solomon Islands, foreign aid, Beijing-Honiara security agreement, Morrison government, climate change, Blue Pacific, United Kingdom, British colonialism, Justin Mohamed, Ambassador for First Nations People, Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islanders, Hamish Fejo, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), indigenous peoples, Hugh White, empathy, cross-cultural, new world order, globalisation, middle power, geopolitics, China-US rivalry

The United States and China: Two alternative visions of regional order

Written by Dr Matteo Dian

Both US allies and non-aligned partners are deepening their security relationship with Washington as their main insurance policy against increasingly frequent Chinese coercion.

Faultlines9DLMay 1, 20239dashline, The United States and China: two alternative visions of regional order, DR MATTEO DIAN, US, US-China, China, power competition, Washington, beijing, regional order, Indo-Pacific model, democracy, maritime democracies, indo-pacific, American-led alliances, Community of Common Destiny, sovereignty, non-interference, US-led military alliances, Cold War mentality, cooperative mechanisms, consent, legitimacy, coercion, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP, Trump administration, US hegemony, Asia Pacific, liberal internationalist tradition, Biden administration, great power, middle powers, material superiority, normative pillars, US allies, Quad, US-led regional order., j, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, liberal values, Xi Jinping, alternative leadership, Sino-centric region, Chinese model, Belt and Road Initiative, state sovereignty, Global Security Initiative, GSI, political-military blocs, ideological blocs, anti-colonial grievances, Australia, territorial disputes, Code of Conduct for maritime disputes, ASEAN

Sabah is a flashpoint for Islamist extremism and separatism in Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Maurizio Geri

Both the Malaysian and Philippine governments should be careful not to allow pressure from these disparate groups to create discord which could unravel the critical progress made so far through the Bangsamoro peace process.

The Quad’s public goods approach: countering the BRI

Written by Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman

Even as it coordinates with other Indo-Pacific strategies and the G20, the priority for the Quad should be to make the geopolitical landscape more amenable to engagement with ASEAN.

Emerging Issues9DLApril 26, 20239DashLine, The Quad’s public goods approach: countering the BRI, Muhammad Faizal bin Abdul Rahman, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), Quad, China, geopolitics, 2008 global financial crisis, ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), trade, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), economic coercion, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), South China Sea, public goods, vaccines, cybersecurity, critical and emerging technologies (CET), outer space, offset China’s influence, Quad Ministerial Meeting, New Delhi, free and open Indo-Pacific, India, US, Australia, Japan, East China Sea, emerging norms, rules, and standards, open, transparent, and secure 5G networks, Open-RAN (Radio Access Network) solutions, Huawei, China's ‘national champions', Nokia, Ericsson, Prague Proposals on Telecommunications Supplier Diversity, democratic values, norms and rules on digital infrastructure development, supply chains, authoritarian governments, countries of origin, surveillance of Uighurs in Xinjiang, transparency, The State of Southeast Asia 2023 Survey Report, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, China's Global Security Initiative (GSI), Munich Security Conference (MSC), Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, AUKUS, missile defence drills, South Korea, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Exercise Malabar, Malaysia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Indo-Pacific NATO, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, minilaterals, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, alliance, European Union’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, Japan’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ vision, connectivity, G20, 2019 Osaka Summit, Putin-Wang meeting in Moscow, Russia, ASEAN dialogue partners, Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo, democracy vs. authoritarianism, Canada, China-US tensions, THE QUAD’S PUBLIC GOODS APPROACH: COUNTERING THE BRI

Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal

Written by Andi Raihanah Ashar

Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia are unlikely to pursue a missile deal involving an India-Russian joint venture as long as they have to put their relationship with the US at risk.

Faultlines9DLApril 25, 20239DashLine, Elephant in the room: Indonesia hesitates to strike India-Russia missile deal, Andi Raihanah Ashar, Indonesia, China, Russia, India, Act East, strategic partner, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence exports, arms sales, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, New Delhi, BrahMos Aerospace, defence industry, Defence Research and Development Organisation, NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM), sanctions, Russian war against Ukraine, interoperability, India’s defence industry, Beijing, military equipment, defence budget, deterrence, cruise missile, supersonic cruise missile, United States International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), hypersonic missile, Atul D. Rane, Philippines, Philippine Marine Corps, sea-denial capability, Manila, Luzon, Palawan, South China Sea, Vietnam, Malaysia, territorial disputes, nine-dash line, Jakarta, National Armed Forces (TNI), Minimum Essential Force (MEF), Andika Perkasa, Prabowo Subianto, France, Qatar, Germany, Turkey, procurement, Rajnath Singh, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, coastal defence, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), PT Len Industri, Joko Widodo, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), Washington, USA, Iran, North Korea, Sukhoi Su-27 SK/SKM, Su-30MKK/MK2, Mil Mi-17V5, Mil Mi35P, P-800 Oniks (3M55), army, navy, air force, KRI Oswald Siahaan, US Senate, Sukhoi Su-35, F-5 Tiger, Lockheed Martin F-16V, 22 BMP-3F, 21 BT-3F, Su-27/30, Belarus, Harry Roque, BrahMos, NPOM, Mashinostroyenia, Ukraine, Southeast Asia, International Traffic in Arms Regulations, ITAR, Palawan Islands, Nine Dash Line, Widodo, CAATSA, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Sukhoi, Maritime Security and Counterterrorism, Modi

A new cut of the cloth: Exploring Beijing’s tailored response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting

Written by Rorry Daniels

Beijing long signalled that it would respond to a Tsai-McCarthy meeting, but its actions did not break precedent and in many ways showed restraint.

Power Politics, East Asia9DLApril 24, 20239dashline, A new cut of the cloth: Exploring Beijing’s tailored response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting, Rorry Daniels, Taiwan, US, China, Cross-Straits relations, cross-strait politics, Tsai Ing-wen, Kevin McCarthy, US Speaker of the House, military drills

In Conversation with Agathe Demarais

9DASHLINE recently had the pleasure of speaking with Agathe Demarais to discuss her timely and important book Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests.

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2023: Global governance for the seabed sinks further still

Written by Drake Long

The ground laid in 2022 will ensure that state-backed exploration of seabed mining will continue, and 2023 may see the first steps taken towards commercial-scale exploitation of the seabed.

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Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Written by Nashalie De Silva and Thilina Panduwawala

It will be crucial to communicate the need for these tough reforms to voters and ensure that they benefit from the economic recovery.

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Quiet for a change: the Marcos approach so far

Written by Angelica Mangahas

When it comes to China, Marcos has been more provocative than Duterte but also more discreet than Aquino.

Political dealmaking will be key in Thailand’s upcoming election

Written by Napon Jatusripitak and Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

While Thai voters can influence the parties’ relative electoral performance, voters’ preferences may not be reflected in the post-election coalition configurations.

Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act

Written by Bhumika Sharma

Given the lack of international consensus, a unique opportunity exists for India to address the protection gap in South Asia’s policy regime for climate migrants.

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