Europe is doing too little, too late in Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Denis Suarsana

Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia are becoming increasingly important. The EU is markedly punching below its weight in Southeast Asia and needs to fight hard to stay relevant at all.

Strongman politics are returning to Southeast Asia

Written by Chris Fitzgerald

Their return represents and legitimises a darker time of dictators, corruption and atrocities, which many older Indonesians and Filipinos hoped was history. It is undoubtedly a step back and suggests strongmen are now the norm, not the exception.

Southeast Asia9DLApril 26, 2024Chris Fitzgerald, 9DASHLINE, Indonesia elections, Indonesia, Philippines, Prabowo Subianto, Ferdinand Marcos, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Southeast Asia, elections, strong-man politics, Democracy, authoritarianism, Populism, human rights, Strongman politics are returning to Southeast Asia

Leadership transition: A curious moment in Singapore’s politics

Written by Pradeep Krishnan

Post-independence politics in Singapore has known a few watershed moments; each noteworthy for chipping away at the PAP’s dominance.

Power Politics, Southeast Asia9DLApril 15, 20249DASHLINE, Pradeep Krishnan, Leadership transition: a curious moment in Singapore’s politics, Singapore, Leadership transition, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Lee Kuan Yew, Lawrence Wong, COVID-19 pandemic, People’s Action Party (PAP), Leadership successions, island-republic, illiberal brand of democracy, illiberal democracy, democracy, political stability, economic vitality, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, non-Chinese prime minister, integrity, clean governance, governance, corruption, Senior Minister S. Iswaran, political courtroom drama, National Development Minister Teh Cheang Wan, conflict of interest, inequality, inequality in Singapore, Gini Coefficient, financial hub, Lee Cheng Hui, Tan Chuan-Jin, parliament, extramarital affair, Jamus Lim, opposition, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Workers’ Party (WP), Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Goh Chok Tong, General Elections, gerrymandering, political and civil liberties, mandate, Post-independence politics in Singapore, opposition leader J.B. Jeyaretnam, Group Representation Constituency (GRC), city-state

As the Philippines’ 'agency' in West Philippine Sea rises, so too does its infrastructure development

Written by Joshua Bernard Espeña

In the Philippine context, the country’s newfound middle-power position offers the Southeast Asian state the ability to navigate uncertainties based on clearly defined national interests, and doubling down on its commitment to develop its infrastructures in the West Philippine Sea is one of the ways to do it.

Southeast Asia9DLMarch 21, 20249dashline, Joshua Bernard Espeña, Philippines, Philippine sea, maritime infrastructure development, Anti-Access/Area-Denial operations, A2/AD, South China Sea, SCS, drones, imagery intelligence devices, agency, assertive transparency, revisionist moves, middle-power, Southeast Asia, national interests, Philippine Congress, infrastructure development, Martin Romualdez, economic development, resource base, natural resources, Manila, diplomacy, China, Beijing, theory of victory, strategic culture, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Marcos Jr., National Security Policy (NSP) 2023-2028, NSP 2023-2028, multipolar world, national sovereignty, territorial integrity, national security, resupply missions, joint exercises, construction development, John Mearsheimer, foreign policy objectives, informational spheres, like-minded allies, domestic politics, external powers, foreign policy, Philippine-US alliance, Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, EDCA, Northern Luzon, Huang Xilian, Taiwan, Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept, CADC, Armed Forces of the Philippines, AFP, Mavulis Island, Basco, Batanes province, American interests, Chinese power, Taiwan Strait, West Philippine Sea, Philippine Department of National Defence, archipelagic security, geostrategic agency, Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine-China relations, Malacañang Palace, Cheloy Serafil, Xi, Pantaleon Alvarez, appeasement, Jonathan Malaya, territory, multi-domain future warfare, warfare, As the Philippines’ 'agency' in West Philippine Sea rises, so too does its infrastructure development

Moving forward while moving backwards: More of the same in Thai politics

Written by William J. Jones

In May 2023, the Thai general election saw a political ‘bomb’ drop on Thailand. The progressive reformist Move Forward Party placed first, taking 151 seats in the 500-member parliament, setting the stage for a head-on collision with Thailand’s conservative establishment.

Power Politics, Southeast Asia9DLMarch 6, 20249DashLine, Moving forward while moving backwards: More of the same in Thai politics, WILLIAM J. JONES, Thailand, Bangkok, Thai general election, Move Forward Party, MFP, Article 112, lese-majeste law, Thai Constitutional Court, constitutional court verdicts, Thaksin Shinawatra, conservative elite, lawfare, Thai Election Commission, Pita Limjaroenrat, Theerayut Suwannakaysorn, policy platform, reformist policy platform, National Anti-Corruption Commission, NACC, Supreme Court’s Division for Political Office Holders, lifetime ban from politics, political rights, Pannika Wanich, Future Forward Party, conservative establishment, Thai opposition, socio-political reform, United Thai Nation, Palang Pracharat, Puea Thai government formation, Puea Thai, money politics, patron-client relationships, clientelism, cronyism, backroom deals, parole, Thai Rak Thai, People’s Power Party, Yingluck Shinawatra, middle-class urban voters, populist people’s party, Thai electorate, military junta, former military junta, Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps

Written by Hunter Marston

Identifying possible mediators and key stakeholders is critical at this particular juncture, and given the present circumstances we need not let perfect be the enemy of good.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 19, 20249dashline, Hunter Marston, Facing Battlefield Losses, Myanmar’s Junta May Look to ASEAN for Offramps, sit-tat, Myanmar Junta, myanmar military, Burmese, Operation 1027, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, State Administrative Council’s (SAC), Beijing has grown frustrated, Ukraine, Laos chairmanship of ASEAN, India, China, ndonesia’s ‘quiet diplomacy', Arakan Army (AA), Japanese special envoy Yohei Sasakawa, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the SAC, National Unity Government, Three Brotherhood Alliance, Sagaing, Shan, Chin, Chin state, shan state, sagaing state, Mandalay, Naypyidaw, ASEAN’s 2021 Five Point Consensus, 5PC, Jakarta, Burmese society, “troika” model, Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines, Myanmar’s generals, ASEAN-brokered solution, people of Myanmar

In Forum: 2024 — The future of ASEAN

Great power politics in the Indo-Pacific has put the future and centrality of ASEAN under some doubt. How can ASEAN negotiate greater space for itself amid the intensifying great power rivalry?

9DASHLINE asks a select group of experts whether ASEAN can withstand these internal and external pressures.

Southeast Asia, Editor's Picks9DLFebruary 16, 20249dashline, DR. PRASHANTH PARAMESWARAN, GORDON CONOCHIE, NAZIA HUSSAIN, Hunter Marston, ASEAN, great power politics, Myanmar Coup, South China Sea, Cambodia, China, Philippine, In Forum: 2024 — The future of ASEAN

Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia

Written by Dr Denis Suarsana

A quick and successful conclusion of trade negotiations with Indonesia would not only significantly strengthen Europe's role in the region but would also be an important step in the European strategy of de-risking from China.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 15, 20249DASHLINE, Why the EU should become more pragmatic towards Indonesia, Denis Suarsana, Indonesia, voters, elections, presidential elections, Joko Widodo, Jokowi, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, autocratic Suharto regime, Suharto, Europe, EU, trade, climate, Non-Aligned Movement, foreign policy, Bebas dan Aktif, mediator, G20 presidency, G20, Russian invasion of Ukraine, ASEAN chairmanship, ASEAN, conflict in Myanmar, Myanmar, Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN in the South China Sea, Code of Conduct, ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, south china sea, neutral, China, United States, economic development, Ganjar Pranowo, Central Java Province, Anies Baswedan, Jakarta, US-China rivalry, great power rivalry, third way, trading partner, State of Southeast Asia Report, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, WTO, nickel export ban, palm oil, trade agreement, Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU CEPA), European Union, Indonesian elite, EU-ASEAN Summit, coercion, democracy, shopping, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), free trade zone, free trade, moral arrogance, moral, morality, equal partnerships, geopolitics, strategy of de-risking, de-risking, copper, nickel ore, tin, bauxite, China+1, China+1 efforts, investment, Global Gateway, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, EU’s Global Gateway, Europe’s Global Gateway, OECD, hedging, conditionality, hardliner

Sustaining change in Cambodia: Hun Manet's journey of steady reform

Written by Jason Chumtong and Soth Chhayheng

The initial months of Hun Manet’s rule have been guided by public interest and the introduction of long-term strategies for the nation's progress to 2050, prompting reflection on the advancement of his vision for Cambodia's role in the region.

Southeast Asia9DLJanuary 25, 20249dashline, Sustaining change in Cambodia: Hun Manet's journey of steady reform, Jason Chumtong, Soth Chhayheng, Cambodia, Hun Manet, Hun Sen, long-term strategies, strategic policies, stability, foreign affairs, Pentagon Strategy, Kingdom of Cambodia, human capital development, economic diversification, economic competitiveness, private sector development, resilient development, sustainable development, inclusive development, digital economy, digital society, strategic shift, strategic guidance, collaboration, transregional political alliances, contemporary global strategies, reform, inclusive governance models, power sharing, domestic politics, opposition parties, competitive elections, least developed country, LDC, economic policies, economic reform, economic growth, foreign investment, national self-reliance, preferential market access, development aid, exports, garment industry, Everything But Arms, EBA, EU, duty-free access schemes, US market, EU market, Prime Minister, Prime Minister Hun Manet, human capital, social welfare, employment opportunities, healthcare, foreign direct investment, 43rd ASEAN Summit, ASEAN, UNGA, Saudi Arabia, ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, ASEAN-Japan Summit, Sretta Thavisin, diplomatic gesture, state visits, mass immigration, water disputes, energy resource exploration, indo-pacific, Victoria Nuland, Cambodia-US relations, USAID, diplomatic ties, US-China rivalry, Ream Naval Base, Brazil, diversification, Emmanuel Macron, France, political leadership, Khmer politics, fiscal policy, bilateral meetings, World Economic Forum, inauguration

Manila is shopping, not re-aligning

Written by Drake Long

Rather than celebrating each time a country publicly cancels a Chinese project, the US, Australia, the EU, and other nations competing for influence at the expense of Beijing should keep in mind the wider picture — Manila and other capitals like it are shopping around for alternatives.

Southeast Asia9DLDecember 7, 20239dashline, Drake Long, Manila is Shopping, Not Re-Aligning, Philippines, Manila, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Subic-Clark freight railway, Calamba-Bicol commuter rail line, inter-city Mindanao railway, Beijing’s influence, China Global Investment tracker, additional memorandum of understanding, Ferdinand Marcos, Marcos’ inauguration, Vanautu, cambodia, indonesia, vietnam, Laos, Sri Lanka, high-profile Chinese investment, Beijing, frontier market, Asian Development Bank, ASEAN, Mindanao, Brunei, Malaysia, conflict zone, Subic bay, state-owned enterprises, Loan repayments, debt-soaked Southeast Asian capitals, Chinese company, Western democracy, US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, maritime statecraft, EU, Australia, Chinese project, Beijing camp, investment deficit, Economic growth, Manila is shopping, not re-aligning, Manila is shopping not re-aligning

Southeast Asia’s security partnerships stronger and more diverse at the end of 2023

Written by Hunter Marston

Japan has emerged as a critical partner of choice for Southeast Asian countries, particularly in its efforts to build maritime and coast guard capacity for frontline states in the South China Sea, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Australia reaches out to Southeast Asia through development and economic partnerships

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler

Whether it is helping link civil society organisations or stimulating Australian business to wake up to opportunities in the region, the Australian government will need to engage many tools of statecraft to achieve its strategic goal of deep partnerships with Southeast Asia.

Challenges remain in the Philippines despite Maria Ressa’s court victory

Written by Chris Fitzgerald

Maria Ressa’s acquittal is not only a rare victory for press freedom, but it offers the Philippines a chance to distance itself from the brutal regime of the former President, Rodrigo Duterte.

Southeast Asia, Editor's Picks9DLNovember 3, 20239dashline, Challenges remain in the Philippines despite Maria Ressa’s court victory, Chris Fitzgerald, Philippines, Maria Ressa, Rappler, Tax evasion, criminal charges, Philippine government, acquittal, press freedom, Rodrigo Duterte, brutal regime, Philippine Court, free press, democracy, responsible press, investigative reporting, human rights abuses, 'war on drugs', President Duterte, freedom of expression, authoritarianism, Philippine constitution, State of the Union Address, Leila de Lima, drug trafficking charges, illicit drugs, drug-related killings, UNHCR, ICC, Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility, CMFR, journalists, media, media workers, independent media, Reporters Without Borders, RSF, World Press Freedom Index, Rey Santos Jr, court cases, cyber libel, ‘Bong Bong’ Marcos Jr, President ‘Bong Bong’ Marcos Jr, separation of powers, extrajudicial killings, forced disappearances, election campaign, social media, army of trolls, disinformation, political opponents, electoral victory, Percival Mabasa, Percy Lapid, Manila, Cresenciano ‘Cris’ Bundoquin, Duterte, Duterte’s Drug War, spurious lawsuits, harassment, transparency

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

What the presidential election tells us about Singaporean politics

Written by Dr Walid Jumblatt Abdullah

Will the presidential election results translate into the general elections in 2025? Probably not, since Tharman is indeed an exception. But the ruling PAP can take heart from the results for reasons already mentioned.

Southeast Asian maritime states are hedging to stay afloat amidst US-China rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

As US-China rivalry hardens, becoming more zero-sum, and China continues to challenge the territorial sovereignty of maritime Southeast Asian states, it will become increasingly difficult to sustain such hedging policies.

Legal matters, religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia

Written by Aniello Iannone, Laure Siegel, Gabriel Facal, Ida Fagervold, and Nicha Wachpanich

Even in countries with democratic systems, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, the religious-political context slows down the LGBTQ+ inclusion process.

Southeast Asia9DLAugust 9, 20239Dashline, Legal matters, religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia, ANIELLO IANNONE, Laure Siegel, GABRIEL FACAL, IDA FAGERVOLD, NICHA WACHPANICH, LGBT, LGBTQ, LGBT+, LGBTIQ, LGBTQI+, Southeast Asia, gender rights, gender discrimination, civil liberties, public healthcare, Religion, Islam, Catholicism, Buddhism, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Timor-Leste, Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar, norm variation, same-sex couples, same-sex relationships, Banda Aceh, Sharia, KUHP, discrimination, Human Rights Watch, gender minority groups, Reynhard Sinaga case, UK, propaganda, Depok Mayor Mohammad Idris, gay, lesbian, transgender, Brunei Darussalam, homosexual, Catholic Church, sexual orientation, heterosexual, masculinity, President Ramos-Horta, President Rodrigo Duterte, war on drugs, gender-based discrimination, HIV, Christianity, conservative, Christian churches, gay marriage, same-sex marriage, marriage equality, General Prayuth Chan-o-cha, military coup, Move Forward party, Future Forward party, Bangkok Pride, sex worker rights, gender recognition, Women's rights, Myanmar LGBTQIA Human Rights Watch, Nay Pyi Daw, junta, violence, Legal matters religious matters: LGBTQ+ rights in Southeast Asia

No land in sight: Prospects of a South China Sea Code of Conduct

Written by Dr Apila Sangtam

The differing stances on the legal nature of the COC and China's assertive actions in contested waters pose significant obstacles to reaching a comprehensive and effective agreement.

Southeast Asia9DLAugust 3, 20239DashLine, Apila Sangtam, ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with China, ASEAN, China, Jakarta, Code of Conduct (COC), south china sea, Wang Yi, Qin Gang, Beijing, Vietnam, Johnson Reef, the Philippines, Mischief Reef, Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), Ian Storey, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, Spratly Islands, Le Thu Huong, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Arbitral Tribunal's Award in 2016, nine-dash line, international law, Li Keqiang, 37th ASEAN Summit, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Covid-19 pandemic, Myanmar, 2021 military coup, v, transnational crime, marine environmental protection, maritime safety, oil and gas, militarising, Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), Paracel Islands, Hanoi, 2016 South China Sea Award, grey zone, Chinese fishing boats, Chinese research vessel, No land in sight: Prospects for the South China Sea Code of Conduct, Nine Dash Line